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Andrey Safonov: “The West accurately raised a question of a conclusion of Moldova from the post-Soviet space”

The political situation in Moldova continues to draw special attention. Many people are interested whether the ruling Alliance will manage to be reformatted and hold the power or the issue will come to an end with the new elections on which communists will try to take a revenge?

The known political scientist, the president of Association of independent political scientists of Transnistria Andrey Safonov answers the questions of our portal.

- For many people the succession of events in Moldova means the real political crisis. In your opinion what became the reason?

- There are two moments on which it is worth stopping. Firstly, Vlad Filat overestimated the forces, showed self-conceit. He considered that the time came to play on contradictions between the part of Alliance and communists and to appear the large political reformer who takes everything under the control … The people said that he names himself sometimes “the Moldavian Putin” though he simply tried to represent himself as the person with whom the West has to work to attract investments into Moldova, to give political support and so on.

Secondly, Filat, probably, was simply tricked. I mean both communists and his main competitor in Alliance the businessman Vlad Plakhotnyuk. According to this version Filat constantly received the information that he, really, is the strongest person in Moldova and that the West supports him, that Moscow waits for steps from him too … And when he acted, appeared between the devil and the deep sea: between communists and partners in Alliance and didn't get the support of the West. Thus, having appeared in minority against all, he fell.

- Can you characterize the leaders of Alliance? What they represent in the political respect?


- Leaders of Alliance accurately associate with those political directions which they represent. Here, for example, Mihai Ghimpu: in policy he is since the 80th years, he is most stickler of association with Romania. Of course, there are big political radicals, but Ghimpu achieved the greatest concrete political success. He has a political party which represented before nobody; it was called as sofa. And today 9-10% of the population follow the Liberal party. Ghimpu has a project: to change the constitution so that the provision on providing the right to citizens of Moldova to elect since 16 years was included in it. If he achieves it, the party electorate considerably will increase at the expense of radical students and school students.

Marian Lupu is the speaker of parliament and the leader of Democratic Party. This person, certainly, possesses good manners and an imposing appearance; he knows some languages. But he has no political charisma and, apparently, desire to be engaged in daily draft organizational work. Because of it the party which he leads, loses many points. It is such type of the political sybarite who expects that somebody has to make daily work instead of him and he will be a successful representative at this time. But it usually doesn't happen …

- Let's return to a figure of Vlad Filat who, of course, wants to reserve a post of the prime minister. What interests are defended by party which he leads?

- The Liberal Democratic Party led by recent political favourite Vlad Filat is absolutely not similar to the Russian party which carries just the same name. It has no accurate political person and, most likely, is in the middle between the right and right-centrist forces. The Liberal Democratic Party supports unconditional rapprochement with the European Union and entry into its geopolitical, economic, cultural and mental space. And at the same time doesn't reject rapprochement with Romania.

In separately taken look Moldova most likely won't integrate into the European Union, but it can be done through rapprochement with Romania which already consists both in the European Union and in NATO. And, in this case the formal number of member countries of the European Union remains invariable!

- That is, all in Alliance support association with Romania?

- It is impossible to tell that all of them support immediate association, but all support integration which already yields the fruits. For example, there are Romanian representatives in departments and the ministries of Moldova. In this respect there are certain agreements. Also there are advisers who coordinate the work of deputies – they appeared at Alliance. The blame of Vladimir Voronin, the former president, is that he couldn't clean the pro-Romanian activists from an education system, science and culture. And while he didn't make it, they created a situation which turned back mutiny on April 7, 2009.

- Before beginning conversation about communists, it would be desirable to ask about the person whom you already mentioned – Vlad Plakhotnyuk. All know that this is the large businessman, but what is his influence on policy?


- Vlad Plakhotnyuk at present formally doesn't hold any political post. You know that he was ousted the first vice-chairman of parliament of Moldova. There was such exchange by the principle “on equal terms” with Vlad Filat. Plakhotnyuk is very serious businessman, perhaps, in the republic he is the largest businessman for today. His influence is great, as well as monetary resources. I won't violate the truth if I tell that impact which he has on policy is huge!

- Want or not, but the crisis happened. To whom is it favourable?


- If to speak about interests of Russia, Ukraine, the CIS, the defeat which Vlad Filat incurred in collision with Vlad Plakhotnyuk and some other political forces is in principle quite good for Moscow. Why? The matter is that Filat was to some extent the representative of the West and Romania in Moldova on rapprochement with Brussels.

- Now we will talk about opposition. First of all it is a question of the communists who were the ruling party in the republic not for one year.

- The leader of Communists Party of the Republic of Moldova Vladimir Voronin and party leadership behaved haughtily. They really didn't try to agree with other parties and social movements. When in 2009 a thunder burst, they showed cowardice on the verge of cowardice – didn't show resistance to fascist thugs on the seventh of April. After that their power swept everything lower and lower and was finally lost in September of the same year.

Situation which has today Alliance in Moldova, is explained by influence of the western structures, by a role of Romania in its fastening, and also mistakes – Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova which didn't make efforts for fight against them.

- It seems that Voronin doesn't want to leave, nevertheless.


- In due time he actively pursued the policy directed on being the only leader in party. At a certain stage it yielded the fruits, but then when there was a question of carrying out of “operations "Successor”, there was a problem. Voronin had conflicts, but already there is no sense to argue who was right and who was guilty … The fact that people from Voronin's immediate environment left party and as a result the communists received a today's situation.

The slogan was such: Voronin is a party and the party is Voronin …. Certainly, the communist party remains if Voronin leaves, but if he leaves, the Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova which is marginalized, will be pushed aside on a roadside.

- Does Voronin want to return himself a presidential chair?


- He won’t become the president who is elected through parliament. Voronin tried to become a speaker, but, as it seems to me, regretted a little money to buy a missing voice from the enemies from Alliance. After all only one voice was necessary! I consider that at such moment it wasn't necessary to feel sorry for a filthy lucre. But now, as it seems to me, West influence is already such is that even if Voronin will win, nobody will let him in the power.

- Some political scientists stated the assumption that there can be a new configuration of political forces if Filat and Voronin unite the forces. What do you think of it?


- Long time the question of a so-called “water-melon” coalition, really, was discussed. It was called water-melon because the colour of the Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova is red and the colour of the Liberal and Democratic Party is green … But nothing turned out and, I think, it can't turn out any more.

Firstly, the Westerners very accurately press in the direction of folding of new Alliance. I think that neither Filat, nor other leaders of Alliance will go against them. Their main task is to prepare for signing of agreements with European Union: about a trade zone, about the associated relations, about the visa-free or facilitated visa regime. Filat's colleague on party, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Yury Lyanke directly prepares this agreement.

It doesn’t important whether they will be signed this year or postponed. Important is that the West accurately raised a question of a conclusion of Moldova from the post-Soviet space. Certainly, the communists would like to prop up themselves with Filat and then to throw him, but it was very difficult to make because after the resignation Filat solved this game. After all the communists voted for that Filat's government has to retire. Communists as a result helped to destroy that Alliance which was, but they after all didn't return to the power! In all this there is a lot of tactics, but it isn't enough strategy – the purpose isn't looked through!

- Will the early parliamentary elections take place in Moldova?

- Judging by the affairs in the republic it isn't necessary to say that parliamentary elections will inevitably take place. The reason is that the West has other position on this matter! Members of Alliance have to sign the new agreement among themselves. And, most likely, they already managed to achieve removal of the main contradictions.

- Opposition is represented by not only communists. What is it possible to tell about chances of other parties which oppose the Alliance course?

- I think that communists won't lose the position of the main oppositional force quickly. But this process is already started … Many actions of the Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova couldn't lead to situation change. There were many meetings, demonstrations on streets of Kishinev, but as a result the Alliance managed to elect the president Timofti through parliament, having proved the ability to overcome the internal contradictions.

In such situation the communists have no other exit, except as by means of mass demonstrations simply to lead to Alliance overthrow! Such project was discussed, but, apparently, it was rejected. And you don't destabilize a situation by usual circulations on streets, certainly.

In any case the part of the left and left-centrist electorate will be snipped off by other forces. If not now, but in foreseeable prospect. I mean the Party of Socialists of Igor Dodon, though it has not such big rating now, Vozrozhdeniye party of Vadim Mishin, “Patriots of Moldova” of Mikhail Garbuz …

Now it isn't necessary to say that these parties are capable to pass in parliament. However, if the situation develops in the present direction, chances of these parties will get stronger.

 

Viewed : 2978   Commented: 0

Author: Vladimir Kuzmenkin

Publication date : 26 June 2013 01:00

Source: The world and we

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