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Andrey Safonov: “The West accurately raised a question of a conclusion of Moldova from the post- Soviet space”

The political situation in Moldova continues to draw special attention. Many people are interested will the ruling Alliance manage to be reformatted and hold the power or issue will come to an end with new elections on which communists will try to take a revenge?

Questions of our portal are answered by the known political scientist, the president of Association of independent political scientists of Transnistria Andrey Safonov.

- The succession of events in Moldova means the real political crisis for many people. What in your opinion became the reason?

- There are two moments on which it is worth stopping. Firstly, Vlad Filat overestimated the forces, showed self-conceit. He considered that the time came to play on contradictions between the part of Alliance and communists and to appear the large political reformer who takes everything under the control … They said that he names himself sometimes “the Moldavian Putin” though he simply tried to represent himself as the person with whom the West has to work in order to attract investments into Moldova, to give political support and so on.

Secondly, Filat, probably, simply was tricked. I mean both communists and his main competitor in Alliance the businessman Vlad Plakhotnyuk. According to this version Filat constantly received the information that he, really, is the strongest person in Moldova that the West supports him and that Moscow waits for steps from him too… And when he acted, he appeared between the devil and the deep sea: between the communists and partners in Alliance and didn’t get the support of the West. Thus, having appeared in minority against all, he fell.

- Can you characterize the leaders of Alliance? What they represent in the political plan?


- Leaders of Alliance accurately associate with those political directions which they represent. Here, for example, Mihai Ghimpu: in policy he is since the 80th years, he is the bright follower of association with Romania. Of course, there are big political radicals, but Ghimpu achieved the greatest concrete political success. He has a political party which represented nobody before; it was called as sofa. And today 9-10% of the population go for the Liberal party. Ghimpu has a project: to change the constitution so that the provision on providing the right to citizens of Moldova to choose, since 16 years was included in it. If he achieves it, the party electorate considerably will increase at the expense of radical students and school students.

Marian Lupu is the speaker of parliament and the leader of Democratic party. This person, certainly, possesses good manners and an imposing appearance; he knows some languages. But he has no political charisma and, apparently, desire to be engaged in daily draft organizational work. Because of it the party which he leads, loses many points. It is such type of the political sybarite who expects that somebody have to make daily work for him and he will be successfully a representative at this time. But so usually doesn't happen …

- Let's return to a figure of Vlad Filat who, of course, wants to reserve a post of the prime minister. What interests are defended by party which he leads?


- The Liberal Democratic Party led by recent political favourite Vlad Filat is absolutely not similar to the Russian party which carries just the same name. It has no accurate political person and, most likely, is in the middle between the right and right-centrist forces. The Liberal Democratic Party supports unconditional rapprochement with the European Union and entry into its geopolitical, economic, cultural and mental space. And at the same time doesn't reject rapprochement with Romania.

In separately taken look Moldova most likely won't integrate into the European Union, but it can be done through rapprochement with Romania which already consists both in the European Union and in NATO. And, in this case the formal number of member countries of the European Union remains invariable!

- That is, all in Alliance support association with Romania?


- It is impossible to tell that all of them support immediate association, but all support integration which already yields the fruits. For example, there are Romanian representatives in departments and the ministries of Moldova. In this respect there are certain agreements. Also there are advisers who coordinate the work of deputies – they appeared at Alliance. The blame of Vladimir Voronin, the former president, is that he couldn't clean the pro-Romanian activists from an education system, science and culture. And if he didn't make it, they created a situation which turned back by mutiny on April 7, 2009.

- Before beginning conversation about communists, it would be desirable to ask about the person whom you already mentioned – Vlad Plakhotnyuk. All know that he is the large businessman, but what is his influence on policy?


- Vlad Plakhotnyuk formally doesn't hold any political post at present. Do you know that he was ousted of the first vice-chairman of parliament of Moldova. There was such exchange by the principle “quid pro quo” with Vlad Filat. Plakhotnyuk is very serious businessman, perhaps, in the republic he is the largest businessman for today. His influence is great as well as monetary resources. I won't violate the truth if I tell that impact which he has on policy is huge!

- Wanted or not, but the crisis happened. To whom is it favourable?


- If to speak about the interests of Russia, Ukraine, the CIS, so the defeat which Vlad Filat incurred in collision with Vlad Plakhotnyuk and some other political forces is quite good for Moscow in principle. Why? The matter is that Filat was to some extent the representative of the West and Romania in Moldova on rapprochement with Brussels.

- Now we will talk about opposition. First of all, the matter is about communists who were the ruling party in the republic not for one year.


- The party leader of communists of the Republic of Moldova Vladimir Voronin and party leadership behaved themselves haughtily. They really didn't try to agree with other parties and social movements. When in 2009 a thunder burst, they showed cowardice on the verge of cowardice – didn't show resistance to fascist thugs on the seventh of April. After that their power swept lower and lower and was finally lost in September of the same year.

Situation which has today Alliance in Moldova, is explained by influence of the western structures, a role of Romania in its fastening, and also mistakes – the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova which didn't make efforts for fight against them.

- It seems that Voronin doesn't want to leave nevertheless.

- In due time he actively pursued the policy directed on being the only leader in party. At a certain stage it yielded the fruits, but then – when there was a question of carrying out of so “the operation “Successor”, there was a problem. Voronin had conflicts, but already there is no sense to argue who was right and who is guilty … The fact that people from Voronin's immediate environment left party and as a result communists received a today's situation.

The slogan was such: Voronin is a party and the party is Voronin …. Certainly, the communist party remains if Voronin leaves but if he leaves, the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova will be marginalised and pushed aside on a roadside.

- Does Voronin want to return himself a presidential chair?

- The president who is elected through parliament, he won’t become. Voronin tried to become a speaker, but, as it seems to me, regretted a little money to buy a missing voice from the enemies from Alliance. After all only one voice was necessary! I consider that at such moment it wasn't necessary to feel sorry for a filthy lucre. But now, as it seems to me, the West influence already such that even if Voronin will win, so nobody let him in the power.

- Some political scientists stated a supposition that there can be a new configuration of political forces if Filat and Voronin unite the forces. What do you think of it?

- Long time the question of a so-called “water-melon” coalition, really, was discussed. It was called as water-melon because the colours of the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova are red and at Liberal and Democratic Party – the green one… But nothing turned out from this and, I think, it can't turn out any more.

Firstly, the Westerners very accurately press in the direction of folding of new Alliance. I think that neither Filat nor other leaders of Alliance won't go against them. Their main task is to prepare for signing of agreements with the European Union: about a trade zone, about the associated relations, about the visa-free or facilitated visa regime. Filat's colleague on party, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Yury Lyanka directly prepares these agreements.

It doesn’t important whether they will sign this year or postponed. It is important is that the West accurately raised a question of a conclusion of Moldova from the post- Soviet space. Certainly, the communists would like to prop up themselves with Filat and then to throw him, but it very difficult to make because after the resignation Filat solved this game. After all communists voted for that Filat's government has to retire. Communists as a result helped to destroy that Alliance which was, but they after all didn't return to the power! In all this there is a lot of tactics, but it isn't enough strategy – the purpose isn't looked through!

- Will the early parliamentary elections take place in Moldova?


- Judging as there are affairs in the republic, so it isn't necessary to say that parliamentary elections will inevitably take place. Reason that the West position on this matter is other! Members of Alliance have to sign the new agreement among themselves. And, most likely, they already managed to achieve removal of the main contradictions.

- Opposition is represented not only by communists. What is it possible to tell about chances of other parties which oppose the Alliance course?

- I think that quickly the communists won't lose the position of the main oppositional force. But this process is already started … Many actions of the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova couldn't lead to situation change. There were many meetings, demonstrations on streets of Kishinev, but as a result the Alliance managed to elect the president Timofti through parliament, having proved the ability to overcome the internal contradictions.

In such situation the communists have no other exit, except as by means of mass demonstrations simply to lead to Alliance overthrow! Such project was discussed, but, apparently, it was rejected. And you don't destabilize a situation by usual circulations on streets, certainly.

In any case the part of the left and left-centrist electorate will be snipped off by other forces. If not now, but in foreseeable prospect. I mean the Party of Socialists of Igor Dodon, though it has not such big rating now, Vozrozhdeniye party of Vadim Mishina, “Patriots of Moldova” of Mikhail Garbuz …

Now it isn't necessary to say that these parties are capable to pass in parliament. However, if the situation develops in the present direction, so the chances of these parties will get stronger.

Viewed : 1633   Commented: 0

Author: Vladimir Kuzmenkin

Publication date : 30 May 2013 22:54

Source: The world and we

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