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Andrey Safonov: “You won’t buy the enemies’ love by the heads of friends!”

Several months have passed after the presidential election passed in the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic and the power changed. Probably, there is the time to look what changes occurred in Transnistria.

The president of Association of independent political scientists of Transnistria Andrey Safonov answers our questions. He was the deputy of parliament of Moldova (1990-1992), the member of presidium of deputy movement “Soyuz” (1990-1992), was a part of the first government of PMR (1991-1992). He was the presidential candidate of PMR (2001, 2006, 2011 years) for three times.

- Several months PMR lives at the new president. Is it possible to do any conclusions about Evgeny Shevchyuk's activity today? Where he proved most of all?


- Unfortunately, the results as a whole are unfavourable. Not numerous environment of the new president of PMR of Evgeny Shevchyuk by the time of coming to power didn't have neither authoritative professionals, nor the elementary program of reforms. Only E.Shevchuk had no program from all six presidential candidates of Transnistria. Naturally, he didn't publish it.

Later more than half a year after arrival of “young reformers” the economy falls down. Municipal tariffs grew approximately by 30-40 % since January, 2012; the capital runs from the republic; people strenuously leave the Homeland; the government obviously starts the elements of a shock therapy; the business is gripped by taxes; social privileges are abolished; at negotiations with Moldova one for another important positions are yielded.

I consider the events from a president's team as the populism, urged to cover its administrative powerlessness.

- What are the relations of the president and the main political forces in the republic, including oppositional?

- This team isn't able and doesn't want to listen somebody. There is an obvious preparation for establishment of the personal regime, nothing the limited power of the head of state. For example, the functions of inquiry and investigation were taken away from Prosecutor's office of PMR and also the Ministry of Internal Affairs and KGB and give them to created Investigatory Committee. Why? The head of Investigatory Committee will be subordinated only to the president. It means that the people of the president even if they steal up to ears, they can't undergo to investigatory actions from the same Prosecutor's office or KGB.

But in a framework of “the telephone right”, familiar to all of us, the chairman of Investigatory Committee can receive “instructions” to begin “hunting” against any objectionable politician, the public figure, the businessman. If someone doesn't agree with me, then let answer: why it was necessary to snub the Prosecutor's office?

It is not better in mass media. By the decree of the President of PMR, the state broadcasting company was created, where the unique founder is the head of state. Thereby the former order is eradicated when legally both executive power and legislature could influence equally on the state TV, radio and the press. Now the deputies are detached from that. Result: the releases of the press service of the Supreme Council of PMR often simply don't go on the air, than the current legislation of PMR is roughly broken. It is the deliberate demonstration of force: remember, we are the law and we create what we want!

I don't exclude that the president's team works over complete exile of the objectionable Prosecutor of PMR Anatoly Guretsky and also over preparation of dissolution of the present Supreme Council. Those who are “at the helm”, need the obedient deputy corps deprived of opposition.

As to me, I am the convinced supporter of the presidential republic, as the purely parliamentary brothel is a way to chaos and death. But the strong and at the same time constructive opposition needs the strong presidential power. Especially we and especially now.

- The idea of creation of constant military base of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Transnistria is discussed. What are pros and cons? What is the relation of elite and republic population to it?

- People have unequivocally positive relation. In conditions when the pro-Romanian authorities of Kishinev promptly approach with Bucharest and the considerable part of the Moldavian politicians supports the accession of Moldova to NATO, the Russian armies are perceived as soldiers and officers allied to Transnistria armies. On a case of the new conflict, simple citizens of Transnistria believe, that the Russian and Dniester soldiers should battle shoulder to shoulder. People think so also because Romania and the West persistently demand to disengage the Russian armies from PMR without any conditions, both the remains of the 14th army and peacekeepers. At the same time the question is pit of disarmament of Dniester power structures. The people draw an unequivocal conclusion: if they wish to deprive us the allies and at the same time to disarm ourselves, it means, that the power capture of Transnistria prepares.

Unfortunately, PMR delegation in Vienna on July 12-13 at negotiations on settlement of the Moldavian-Dniester conflict in a format “5+2” (PMR and RM – the conflict parties, Russia and Ukraine – guarantors and intermediaries, OSCE – the intermediary, the USA and the European Union – observers) agreed to inclusion in the agenda of negotiations of so-called “Third Package”, allowing Kishinev and its allies to insist on discussion of “political, institutional” questions and “safety issues”.

It means that the diplomats of Moldova, the USA, EU and OSCE acquired the right of a message discussion about a conclusion of the remains of the Russian 14th army, peacekeepers of the Russian Federation and also about PMR status as a part of unitary Moldova. It already weakened PMR and Russia positions in dialogue, gave the chance to tell in principle on this unnecessary subject for Moscow and Tiraspol. I hope there won’t be further concessions in this area, though it is necessary to remember a proverb: “If stars light – it means, it is necessary for somebody”.

And here is: if we aren't going to open this “Third Package”, it was possible to block and not to authorize simply it to inclusion in the agenda, isn’t it?

- Can a rouble of the Russian Federation be the official monetary unit of PMR? Will it the plus for republic economy?

- Today it is the slogan, may be beautiful for a part of Dniester voters. Let’s speak frankly: Russia if to follow the official concept of its approach to the Moldavian-Dniester relations isn't going to recognize PMR officially, especially, to admit the republic to the structure. And without it all the rest is impracticable. First of all, Russia won't complicate the relation with Kishinev to such extent that to do the rouble of the Russian Federation as the national currency of PMR, to turn a financial system of Transnistria into a part of the Russian financial system. If it so, the games with the Russian rouble, not supported with political decisions, will appear as adventure. Here are only some questions on which it would be necessary to give the definite answers.

Firstly, how many Russian “cash” is required for PMR? It is possible to count, but on the basis of what agreement between the Central Bank of Russia and Dniester Republican bank such process can be started? Does Russia ready to such step?

Secondly, what to do with non-cash payment? If the Russian rouble becomes the PMR currency then the system work is required for non-cash payment.

Thirdly, on the basis of what political decision of the managements of PMR and the Russian Federation, the Central Banks of the parties will begin the preparation for replacement of Dniester rouble on Russian? It already will be not the cooperation between PMR and any Russian region. De facto and even de jure it will be the issue about the agreement between the Russian Federation and PMR as two recognized countries.

Fourthly, if there would be no such political and interbank agreement of the Russian Federation-PMR, so the handicraft, informal “throw” of the Russian roubles in Transnistria won't have the sense. In what volume to import them? In bags? On weight? Somehow more? And if the next year, for example, the moods in the Kremlin would be changed once again and there will be decided that “it is possible to deal with Kishinev” and will stop to put the Russian roubles in PMR? We will appear without the Russian currency and without own. And it is the crash of state economy, both its finance and all republic as a whole.

Fifthly, the currencies of the big countries are the subject to big shocks. Take at least a default in Russia of 1998. Because of several ten of dregs, ten of million people suffered in all former USSR. It would not be desirable to get into a situation when you supervise nothing.

It seems to me, the national currency is better for small, compact PMR which would rely on financial power of the mighty country ally. There is a lot of such examples In the world. Besides, as we spoke, in conditions when today the leadership of the Russian Federation formally recognizes PMR as a part of Moldova, so it is trouble-free for all. Here if Russia departs from a present official position across Transnistria, the time will come to consider other options.

- The situation in Moldova becomes aggravated; the different political forces speak about “settlement” in Transnistria in a various context. Is there something new in these ideas or it is old conversation which doesn't consider the interests of the population of PMR at all?

- Now the Moldavian-Dniester relations are actually so bad, as well as in the early nineties. There is no hot war, the truth. But approach to PMR is conducted on all other fronts – economic, diplomatic, bank etc. I emphasize: the smiles at negotiations, conversations on “tactics of small steps” on “rapprochement of positions of the parties” shouldn't deceive somebody. Kishinev where the pro-Romanian “Alliance for the European integration” is in power since 2009, conducts initially dishonest game. Purpose: supposing that the new management of PMR, unlike the old, will hand over republic positions, will refuse not only independence, but even the federal or confederative model of settlement of the Moldavian-Dniester relations, after then will agree on the autonomy status as a part of unitary Moldova.

Wishing “to break off” Transnistria, Kishinev and its allies toughened the approaches in comparison with that period when Igor Smirnov was the president of PMR. The USA stopped the work with PMR banks – the pier, the National Bank of Moldova doesn't supervise them. They wish PMR to agree on new car numbers on which Kishinev doesn't wish to see a red and green flag of Transnistria. Moldova achieved a consent from the new management of PMR to the admission of customs officers of Moldova on PMR territory – to the cities of Bendery and Rybnitsa. In addition the railway agreement signed still in March is prolonged for one year by means of which “Dniester railway” actually appeared in system of “Railways of Moldova”. All this led that Kishinev demanded to consider the import which was earlier imported to us without the sanction of Moldova, as contraband. The Dniester firms importing this import began to be imposed the penalties for “contraband”. I name only the main aspects.

Let's say directly: there is a cold war for the purpose of economy destruction and then and PMR statehood. Crash of economy of the republic, according to the plan of Kishinev and its allies, should precede the capitulation of Tiraspol and its consent to unitary model of settlement.

It is supported completely by Romania. It waits that its satellites from AEI compelled our new management to capitulation then it will be possible to attach all former MSSR, including modern PMR to Romania. Here are the proofs.

Firstly, Romania demands an unconditional conclusion not only the remains of the 14th Russian army, but also peacekeepers from PMR.

Secondly, it insists on elimination of power structures of PMR.

Thirdly, it demands not to agree neither on federation, nor on confederation between Kishinev and Tiraspol at all.

Let's compare these three moments and will draw a conclusion: Bucharest wants that Transnistria didn't possess the status at the moment of accession of the former MSSR to Romania, allowing such accession to reject. Otherwise, what is the matter to the country which is not participating not in negotiations on Moldavian-Dniester settlement, to the Russian and Dniester armies and also to the status of Transnistria?

So the official Kishinev doesn't put forward any really compromise ideas. On the contrary, there is a kickback to the first half of the 90th …

- Does the creation of the Federal Republic of Moldova possible in principle?

- And is it necessary, especially, now? Let's reflect quietly.
If to start with a today's situation, the Moldavian-Dniester hybrid will appear impractical. Question of questions: in what geopolitical space should be the expected FRM? In “Europe through Romania” how the leaders of Moldova dream? Or in Eurasian, with a support on integration processes and projects in the CIS, on that Transnistria is traditionally aimed? I don't see yet how to overcome this contradiction.

I know that the lobbyists of Kishinev and any shysters, including some Moscow bureaucrats bought for money, try to deceive the leadership of Russia, including the president Vladimir Putin. This “dark” from “Night watch” crafty speaks in the Kremlin: “Give press Tiraspol and we will squeeze Transnistria into Moldova! Then the supporters of Romania will lose the power and Russia will find control over both coast of Dniester and turn the incorporated Moldova from the West to the East!”.

These arguments are a bluff or conscious lies. As soon as Kishinev will have an opportunity officially to get on a political field of PMR (informally it already got), it “will smooth out” this field from supporters of independence of Transnistria and also from “Eurasians” in the different ways, then will lead the “pacified” region “to Europe through Romania”. Besides the practice shows that in open opposition in the corridors of power of Kishinev the wind from the West prevails over a wind from the East if to paraphrase the Chinese song of times of Chairman Mao. Let's remember at least the refusal of the communistic leadership of Moldova from signing of the Kozak Memorandum in 2003. Comments aren't necessary here …

And now let’s go from the particular to the general. What Russia proceeds? From the maximum involvement of the territories of the former USSR in the Custom Union and then in the Eurasian Union. Right? Right! And if it so, why to carry out this involvement in the borders of the former federal republics?

In my opinion, it is the page from the book of the past written by Lenin, divided mighty uniform country on the national and state formations. This system blew up the Soviet Union. I am sure that it is necessary to close this book and go further. There is no need to spill new wine in old bellows. Let's say, Azerbaijan, Georgia or Moldova reconsidered illusions on subjects of NATO, EU, etc from the heart. Let's say they decided to change a course. So if you are from heart, it is impossible to go forward, without demanding instead of “return” of PMR, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh? If we together go to the Eurasian party, what is the difference for you what status the CIS-2 has? And if you, dear companions, want to subordinate again those who chose freedom by the hands of Moscow and then to send Russia far away and to leave with “the returned lands” to the west, then everything falls into place.

And it is necessary to remind the truth for the Russian politicians which, I hope, they remember: You won’t buy the enemies’ love by the heads of friends. All history of mankind successfully proved it!

Viewed : 1572   Commented: 0

Author: Vladimir Kuzmenkin

Publication date : 09 November 2012 14:02

Source: The world and we

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