Boycott of the European Union and disappointment of voters of the Southeast are "multi-vector" in Ukrainian

The political scientist, the director of the Ukrainian branch of Institute of the CIS countries Vladimir Vladimirovich Kornilov tells about the current political situation in Ukraine and prospects of the main political forces on upcoming elections in interview to the Internet portal “The world and we”.

- After the election of Vladimir Putin as the president in Russia the set of the materials appeared in the Ukrainian mass media, the authors of which argued that now the policy of Russia concerning Ukraine becomes much more rigid. What the strategy of the Ukrainian management will be in the relations with Russia soon and will it continue to defend the “well-known” European integration vector of development?

If there will be any changes in the Ukrainian policy, in many respects not in connection with the fact of Putin’s return in a presidential chair. And still before Ukraine understood Putin's value in the decision-making chain in the Russian Federation extent of his influence on domestic and foreign policy when he was on a post of the prime minister. First of all, the changes of strategy will arise in connection with that isolation to which Ukraine is exposed from the European Union and the USA. I hope very much that now, after such angry actions and statements of Brussels which will be even angrier in process of approach of the Ukrainian elections, all illusions of representatives of the Ukrainian elite about phantom European integration will be forgotten and dispelled. And I hope that after that sobering up will come, the illusive vector of the European integration will be if isn't buried, but powdered with “ashes” and Ukraine will be developed towards integration projects with Russia on the former Soviet Union more accurately.

- The Party of Regions didn't execute the majority of the election pledges, allowed a set of political mistakes and with such “store” leaves on coming nearer elections. Will KPU or other parties get the advantage because of ratings falling of the Party of Regions, what prospects does the party in power have on upcoming elections?

If to trust sociological polls, so they say that the Party of Regions now is on the first place, or a little, within an error, concedes to “Batkivshchyna”. But the majority of polls show that the Regionals still win the first place and they have a chance to increase the rating. Though, of course, everything will depend on how the Party of Regions and its main opponents will carry out the election campaign. Therefore all political forces have the chances to increase the political rating on start of the election campaign. As to communists, we see a steady tendency – the growth of KPU’s ratings. But, thus, the growth is not explosive, not enormous. We see that the considerable collapse of a rating of the Party of Regions didn't turn back the same mirror growth of KPU rating.

The main, ideological kernel of the voters of the East and the South of Ukraine, leaving from Party of Regions, go or to communists, or, mostly, anywhere. For all years of sociological measurements in Donetsk region there was never such that more than 50 % of voters didn't know for whom they will vote on the eve of elections. As this area is the electoral kernel of the Party of Regions. Certainly, there is a serious fight for this electorate which has disappointed in Regionals, but there is no alternative in the Southeast, “anti-Tyagnibok”. Many don't want to vote for communists, but don't find any other political force for which they can vote. Respectively, many voters of the Southeast simply won't come to elections if not to change a situation cardinally. That will sharply be reflected in ratings of communists and Party of Regions. Both political forces are interested in that the appearance in the Southeast was as it is possible above.

- Europe gives the active support Tymoshenko because of her staying in prison. Thus, before consideration of the law on the regional status of languages of national minorities in the Verkhovna Rada, she published the letter in which it is consecutive, not for the first time makes anti-Russian statements and is against the Russian language. Is it possible to argue that Tymoshenko thus expresses the interests of “owners” who so actively protect her and these interests become obvious – the anti-Russian policy in Ukraine and aspiration to separate Ukraine with Russia as much as possible?

I would like to note that the words “sequence” and Tymoshenko aren't compatible. Why Europe, the West didn't support Tymoshenko on last presidential election? In principle everything that she didn't suffice is the any pocket opinion poll which has shown her victory and the western reaction about non-recognition of elections that already was, for example, in 2004. Why the West didn't support Tymoshenko then? Because nobody in the West and in Moscow has any illusions about Julia Vladimirovna's “accurate” choice and her “ideology”. They perfectly understood that it is possible to agree with Yanukovych and the arrangements with Tymoshenko are useless. She will promise one and make opposite. It is known both in Moscow, and in Brussels, and in Washington. Therefore there is no sense to consider her as the inveterate agent of influence of the West. In Moscow she was the most pro-Russian, in America – the most pro-American. She is absolutely not ideological person – it is all the same for her what and to whom to promise.

I want to give such fact concerning her sequence– in the spring of 2005, the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and Yulia Tymoshenko were ready to become the most pro-Russian, pro-Russian party. I was present on collecting of their assets in spring of 2005 and saw how it occurred. There was an opinion that the Party of Regions is already crushed, Yanukovych is in hiding. There is no sense to go to the west as Yushchenko already was there. And consequently, it was possible to take electorate of the Southeast though barehanded, but it is necessary to fulfill any pro-Russian promises. But then it appeared that the Party of Regions isn't destroyed, Yanukovych returned, the Regionals occupied any niche. And Tymoshenko suddenly appeared at congress in a vyshivanka. Then the words about the Ukrainian choice began to sound. Therefore it is not necessary to feel any illusions concerning her present choice and made actions.