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“Cohabitation” of the prime minister and the president of Georgia weaken positions of “Georgian Dream”

Cohabitation is the term from the French policy, meaning accessory of the president and the prime minister to different political forces. The cohabitation in the Georgian way can become the reason of unexpected results on presidential election in Georgia – the known Georgian political scientist Joseph Tsiskarishvili tells about it and other aspects of a pre-election situation.

- What features are inherent in the upcoming presidential election in Georgia?


Some inconveniences in the Georgian society are caused by number of applicants for a chair of the president of the country. And one of explanations of this fact is imperfection of the Georgian legislation regarding the elections. Let it sound a little ironically, but an essential shortcoming seems the lack of need to provide the reference about own health to candidates for president. When we are going to drive the car, we are demanded to bring the reference about mental health. But when we give the chance to operate the state, such reference isn't necessary, and it creates inconveniences and doubles the quantity of jokes about presidential election.

Certainly, only three candidates from 23 can count on the results of elections presented by two-digit number. Therefore there is a speech about them in the basic. Though under democracy laws all 23 candidates use the benefits of political advertising. And emergence on a TV screen probably also is the main task and the purpose of these “politicians” about whom earlier nobody knows, except a family and neighbours.

- How the votes are distributed among major candidates according to sociological polls?

If to speak about existing preferences in the Georgian society, it should be noted one very important fact. In all sociological researches, except that are carried out by request of “Georgian Dream”, the candidate from this political force doesn't collect more than 50% of votes. Thus, it approaches the need of existence of the second round to reality. Such statement of a question categorically isn't acceptable for prime minister Ivanishvili. There are his statements that in that case he will lose interest to the future concerning the country and, most likely, in general will decide not to be engaged in support of political processes.

I don't exclude that the first round will be sufficient for identification of the winner. Thus the head of “Georgian Dream” says that he will be embarrassed if his candidate draws less than sixty per cent. Then he will draw unpleasant conclusions that the people didn't understand him, and will avoid further activity. But after all the decision is made by the Georgian people. It already learned to divide accurately the black from the white. Also there is a need to prove those intentions which were proclaimed on October 1 of the last year when the power was replaced thanks to activity of voters. But I think that it was only the first time of fight between “Georgian Dream” and “National movement” of Saakashvili.

- What are the relations before elections between “Georgian Dream” of Ivanishvili and “National movement” of Saakashvili? Does the sharpness of the conflict existing at the time of parliamentary elections remain?


From last October Georgia is in classical option of double management - we have an unprecedented diarchy. Talking to diplomats of the different countries, I didn't hear from one of them that force calling by opposition, would possess those opportunities which the opposition has in Georgia.

At the head of the Georgian opposition there is a person who under the existing Constitution is the first person of executive power in the country. Besides, he is the Supreme Commander of Armed Forces and the chairman of the board of safety of the state. He appoints and supervises all governors of the country. His influence extends on solid part of foreign policy and the Georgian diplomacy, on banking and judicial system. Such control levers of authorities don't possess in many countries even. And these trumps were used fully that created very ambiguous relation to the Georgian state, including from the western partners. And for the same reason the present power devoted the most part of the work to self-justifications and charges of sabotage of its actions.

Therefore the main indicator of the relation to “National movement” is the Georgian people which demands extraordinary parliamentary elections for a long time because there was absolutely inadequate situation. Today the political range of Georgia in parliament is presented by only two political forces. And both of these parties are the parties in power – there is no real oppositionist.

Thus the won prime minister says that he leaves a post until the end of November and passes to civil society, and the lost chairman of National movement, without five minutes ex-president of Georgia Saakashvili says that will return to the power much quicker, than someone can imagine it. Certainly, in this regard there is a question – if the prime minister and the president leave who will be represented by all these people in parliament? After all it is not a secret that all of them got to this parliament only because of the attitude of the population towards their leaders. Therefore more and more accruing requirements of extraordinary parliamentary elections become especially actual after presidential elections.

Besides, there is quite sharp argument that without any cooperation between these pro-imperious forces “National movement” couldn't dream of finding of the candidate even in the first five persons who will take the corresponding places after elections. And a situation now is such that the prime minister already several times appearing on television, announces a success factor of “National movement” and says that their candidate will take the second place. Perhaps, he frightens the voters that they ran on elections, but it is only one party of such actions.

Unfortunately, the theory of cohabitation of the prime minister and the president from the different political forces, imposed from abroad, found the beautiful soil for realization in Georgia. Certainly, the cohabitation can't extend on criminals. But in case of Georgia all criminal history connected with the previous authorities for some reason “was forgotten”. And only within the last week began to speak about what spoke right after October 1, 2012 – about crimes in which the high-ranking ranks of “National movement” are mixed. In any case, in the last half a year the prosecutor's office if worked on this matter so in a deep underground. Because all previous announcements of loud judicial proceedings are already forgotten. And in this case the indignation of the population is directed any more only towards “National movement”, but also towards the ruling party, not managed to show real aspiration on justice return in the country.

- What prospects does the party leader “Democratic Movement — United Georgia” Nino Burjanadze have on upcoming elections?

The existing authorities don't hide that it is a reason for concern for them. Nino Burjanadze by the political experience, of course, can't be the minor candidate in this competition. Especially, when the part of the population has some disappointment in both authorities, so there is no other alternative candidate for whom the voters can vote.

Leading parties don't hide that Nino Burjanadze is unacceptable for them because she will be, as always, very exacting and the extremist in everything - in the statements and actions.

- What changes, in your opinion, wait Georgia after presidential election?

The extremely important point of the upcoming elections, what candidate will take the second place – will it be David Bakradze from “National movement” or Nino Burjanadze. If it is “National movement”, it is possible to claim with a big share of probability that Georgia remains in a diarchy regime. Also active support of the West to “National movement” will proceed. That prosperity which they could select at the Georgian people, will provide them possibility of “dolce vita” still long time – at least, 5 more years to the following presidential election.

At the same time important fact that the new Constitution which will come into force right after inauguration of the new president, changes a ratio of the rights and duties of the prime minister and the president. The president will be now actually the figure. All power passes to the prime minister. This question most of all interests the population – whom the present prime minister will offer as the successor. All this forces the Georgian society to watch closely observance of fundamental democratic principles in the country and are the major factors influencing the upcoming elections.
 

Viewed : 2065   Commented: 0

Author: Mikhail Mikhaylov

Publication date : 26 October 2013 01:00

Source: The world and we

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