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Latvia and the results of the population census of 2011year: the number of the Latvians drastically decreases!

The population census of 2011year in Latvia has finished. The CSA of the Latvian republic published the first preliminary results – 1.9 million persons in Latvia have confirmed their living. The declared population number turned out to be as expected, at the level of the optimistic scenario. The final results of the population census that will be announced in the December, 2011, won’t be principally different, there is possibility of little correction to the decreasing side (if they wish to tell us the truth and expel from the list the ones, which are outside Latvia, and those, who registered its presence in Latvia through the Internet). So the first results should be analyzed.   The first thing that we should note is the feature of this population census. It was the first time, when the process of the census was not only those, who were on the territory at the moment of the census event. The Latvian population census was carried out with usage of the computers with prepared data base and that is why, by its nature this population census was some kind of simple population inventory. In other words the CSA of the Latvian republic was comparing the data of inhabitant Register with the real presence of the inhabitants on the territory of the country. Opportune that was one of the campaign reasons as to the danger of using internet resources for the population census, because “as if someone would steal personal data of specific person” and etc. This psychological campaign is one of the attempts of consciousness manipulating of the inhabitants and the attempt to replace the image of inner foeman, but it’s the subject of the separate conversation... Today, we will try to estimate the result of the population census for further development of Latvia.   The lesson is number one – the government system of the Latvian Republic has shown its failure. The population registration error in Latvia has composed about 15%. The Register data of the inhabitants that is under the management of the Department on citizenship and migration, as of beginning of 2011 have error in 320 thousand people. It proves the fact that the country does not have working control system of population moving that acts in the form of obliged declaring of residency (that has replaced the system of registration). The problems, related to the searching for man for monition, to order out in police, procurator’s office and other, exist for a long time by now, but no one is talking officially and freely about them. The population census fetched out the “hole” in the system of population registration of Latvia, it will be good if the managerial class understand this problem and with the computer data of the population census will correct both the inhabitants Register data and the list of declared residency.   Two of the previous population censuses, in both 1989 and 2000, were carried out by hand, without the usage of computer equipment and of course the one revealed the errors in the system of the registration of the Latvia people movement. The error of the manual calculation of the population of Latvia in 1989 was about one thousand people, and in 2000 it were around 47 thousand people or -2% of the population. So the disappointing conclusion can be made regarding the Latvian government system – the “market mechanism” of the population movement record in the form of the system of the declaring residency does not work and it loses by 100 percent to the “nonmarket” mechanism of population moving record in the terms of system of residence permits.   The lesson is number two – the results of the Latvian population census of 2011 show that Latvia indeed fulfilled its targets that was put forward by its managerial class as far back early in the century. I will remind that the main argument of the managerial class at the time of the agitation for the inference of Latvia into EU sounded as the following – “the people of Latvia will gain the right to study and work freely at other countries of the Euro union”. And here we are with the accomplished mission. Total the population loss of Latvia for the period from 2004 (May 1 – the date of the entrance into the EU) to 2011, inclusive (based on the preliminary data of the population census) 419,2 thousand persons or 18,1 percent. The reduction of the population number of Latvia, using the normal wastage (the excess of death numbers over the birth numbers) was 69.6 thousand people or 3 percent. The rest 15 percent or 349.6 thousand people, Latvia lost because of the departure of the population for the earning in the Euro union.   The conclusion is univocal – after persuading the Latvia citizens to vote for the entrance into the EU, the managerial class has performed the “social order” of the Old Europe – the “cheap man power” with the “right skin color” shall help to restore the ethnic-labor balance. If it is coarser, we have been sold to Europe for euro funds. And that is why; the government of                        V. Dombrovskis as far back as last year didn’t really want to carry out the population census. But it’s hard to hide the truth, though the census is not only the issue of Latvia or even Europe, it is the mandatory procedure that the all countries follow. And we have finally found out the truth about ourselves…   The lesson is number three – the economic estimations of the government at the time of both the formation of budget and the plans of economic growth are erroneous. The margin of error is too high and that is why there is a need to include corrections. To understand the hinge of error – the shortage of 15 % of population – there is a need to understand who are these departed people? First of all, we are interested in the age of those, who went to Europe for earnings and stuck there.   The country population, generally divides into three groups – children until the working age (0-15 years old), active persons of working age (15-65 years old), pension age (non-working) persons (more than 65 years old). The Latvian pensioners has nothing to do in Europe after 2004 – the social services of Germany have terminated to accept people for habitual adobe within the frames of the repatriation obligations per the results of the Second World War, and they can’t survive there with the Latvian pension. Consequently, the immigrated and those, who continue to immigrate to Europe, are entities of the active working age, and after the creation of “normal living conditions” their children join them there as well. That is why the discrepancy in the calculation of population at the amount of 320-350 thousand people has to be allocated between the children and the entities of the active working age. The statistic data of the end of 2010 show, that the correlation of children and the entities of the active working age is 1 to 5. The direct use of this proportion to the immigrated isn’t really the right thing to do, that’s we assume that the immigrated amount consists of children that hold minor part – up to 10-15 thousand people. This number is close to the figure that is announced by the Ministry of Education from time to time, same as the number of school age children that do not visit the school. Now we can correct the data by the structure of the population for 2010:  

  2010 year* 2010 with the correction by the result of the population census
children of pre-working age   309 154 294 154
active working age entities 1 549 011 1 214 409
pension age (non-working) entities 390 209 390 209
  Population in total 2 248 374 1 898 772
*) Latvijas statistiskas gadagrāmata 2010. - LR CSP, Rīga: 2010. – 121.lp

  Further, the performed correction allows us to adjust the economically active population data of the country and the number of occupied ones in the national economy, as well as the share of measured unemployed. In accordance with the information of Central Statistical Administration of Latvian Republic the number of active people in Latvia was 1.157 thousand people, including the occupied ones in national economy – 940.9 thousand people. Taking into the account the correction, these numbers decrease to 822.4 and 606.3 correspondingly. As a result we get a number that reflects the reality of Latvian economy. In accordance to the information of tax office, the number of workers in Latvia at the end of 2010 equals to 742.1 thousand people (those for whom the employer must pay social transfers). The difference of 100 thousand – is the part of those, who are considered as working, but do not receive salary, because receive it as backdoor salary or had immigrated long time ago, but the employer didn’t include the corrections into the list of his employees. The fact that someone still registered somewhere as a worker has to be identified and corrected by the employer only in that case, when he tries to sign up for unemployment to receive unemployment compensation.   That way, we had found out an explanation to the differences between the data of CSA and TAI at the amount of more than 200 thousand people. The thing is that the Department of Treasury in the process of tax incomes of labor forces is using the data of CSA, but not of tax office. We didn’t receive and clear answer from the officials to our straight question concerning the existence of such a difference in the amount of workers. Of course, our calculation was pretty much notional and may contain a statistical discrepancy, but overall it’s close to being genuine than the calculations of Treasury Department.   The last component of this population census lesson is an estimation of the real level of the registered unemployment in Latvia. According to the data of employment service the biggest quantity of the registered unemployed in Latvia of late march of 2010 had accounted to 194,253 people of 17.3% of the active population of the country. With an account to correction this is about 23.6% of active population. On 1st June 2011, 149.6 thousand unemployed were registered and over 18% of the active population of Latvia, but not 13.2%, according to the employment service.   As a result, according to the indicator of the officially registered unemployment, Latvia is only behind Spain, which is, according to Eurostat, in April 2011 had 20.7% unemployed. Average indicator across all EU countries is only 9.4% unemployed. Estonia in March 2011 had showed 13.8% unemployed, while Lithuania had 17.3% unemployed as of December 2010. In the table of Eurostat, Latvia also ranks last as of December 2010 – 17.2% unemployed, however according to the data of employment service in late December 162,463 unemployed were registered and they had accounted to 14.3%. That is another leapfrog with numbers.   Fourth lesson – according to the results of population census a crisis is starting in Latvia, which can be called as the crises of legitimacy. The Latvian republic is one of the most unique government of the world in which, as a result of independency recovery and secession from USSR, the biggest part of the population (around 50%) didn’t have citizenship during the first years. Moreover, as of 1 January 2011 (excluding the results of population census) in Latvia about 82.9% population had the citizenship of Latvia, while the other 17.1% are citizens of other countries and non-citizens (former citizens of USSR, which didn’t receive citizenship by place of inhabitation).   Preliminary results of population census of 2011year show that the country’s number of inhabitants objectively much lower than the actual data by 320-350 thousand people. Who are these people, who left Latvian and didn’t come back, during the presence time of the country in EU? Citizens or non-citizens? – the answer, is possibly, simple, in general those are citizens, because for non-citizens, the holders of violet passports an employment path in EU was strongly blocked. Furthermore, the number of citizens must be reduced from 1,854,684 people, at least by 320 thousand. Eventually we receive that according to the results of population census the portion of citizens in population of Latvia is decreasing by 82.9% approximately to 80%. Also, by taking into an account that fact that after the elimination of naturalization Administration the process of receiving citizenship had slowed down much, the share of citizens is going to decline, in terms of continuing departure process for earning in population of Latvia.   Fifth lesson is tied directly with the fourth – the results of population census will show a decline in population of native’s share. According to the data, the share of Latvians in population of Latvia in 01 January 2011 is 59.5%, their share in citizens – 71.6%. Taking into an account that the biggest inclination to migration in search for better fate, including the presence of citizenship, had the representatives of the Latvian diaspora, then, entering corrections, based on preliminary results of the population, one can assume that the share of Latvians in population of Latvia had decreased from 59.5% to 52.7%. This is the level of 1989. In other words, the entering of Latvia to EU can be called as one of the factors, which leads to decrease in number of Latvian people on sole territory in the world, where this nation had established its state and where it can freely persist and develop Latvian language. The guilty ones aren’t emigrants nor Russians, but the “best representatives” of Latvian nation, who led the country for the last 20 years.   What to do? – The answer is simple. One must guarantee 100% adherence of the Latvia Constitution. In the second statement it was said that Latvia is a government of Latvian people. Not Lettish but Latvian people. Latvia has never been and can’t be mononational government by force of historical development and geographical location. That’s why in late 20s the fathers of Latvian Republic establishment had registered this norm in Saatversm – “government of Latvian people”. The basis for those Latvian people are permanent inhabitants of Latvia, who acknowledge the Latvian language as state and show regard for other nations, which are part of Latvian people. Moreover to achieve economic success the Latvian government should press for equal communication, in three languages – Latvian, English and Russian between all inhabitants of Latvia and all Latvian people. Only in this way we will be able to start with measures for exiting the economic crises.   The results of population census of Latvia in 2011year is the last warning bell not only for the Letts but also for all Latvians…

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Author: Евгения Зайцева

Publication date : 25 June 2011 11:16

Source: The world and we

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