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Ivan Datsenko from Ukraine is the leader of the Indians and the agent of the Soviet intelligence service

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Excuse us, Russians...

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The U.S. State Department: Russia prepares aggression against the USA by hand of Chukchi people

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The truth of history: Wehrmacht, just as SS, slaughtered and raped on a mass scale

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The USA and other organizers of anti-Russian sanctions stand up for Nemtsov's murder

USA go to hell!

Fuck USA!

Mikhail Pogrebinsky: The Verkhovna Rada remains the same as today. Changes are possible in 2015year...

The political scientist, the director of the Kiev centre of political researches and conflictology Mikhail Borisovich Pogrebinsky tells about a pre-election situation in Ukraine in interview to “The world and we”.

- Some experts argue that first of all not the ideological opponents, but the financial and oligarchic clans faced in pre-election fight in Ukraine who depending on the region stake both on the party of power and on opposition. Do you agree with such point of view?

It is very superficial rating. Firstly, it is incorrect that in general there is no ideological opposition - it exists. There are two political forces which support the human rights in a language problem and the others which apply for places in parliament, but thus oppose. It is the typical political opposition, and, conceptual, connected with keeping of the future of the country. And the fight is between them, of course. If to speak about a role of oligarchs, there are oligarchs there, but generally, of course, the majority of oligarchs are put in the party of power. But, as it always happens, they try to display eggs in different baskets, and, of course, someone from them has people in lists of others, oppositional parties. But it is not equivalent investments. It becomes more likely just in case and has no scale which would affect the policy which will carry out the opposition parties. There can be some people who will vote not as the fraction, but as the party of power wants, but considerably it won't change a situation.

- How will you comment on ratings dynamics for the last half a year - the ratings of United Opposition consistently decrease and the ratings of the Party of Regions grow. What is the reason of such dynamics and why the opposition ratings decrease?

The ratings of the party of power don't increase any more - it was stabilized. As to the United Opposition, the rating really falls, but this rating is redistributed to other oppositional force. The balance between the party in power together with KPU and together taken opposition parties is thus observed. They have approximately identical public support as it almost always happened. And the intrigue and dynamics is that there is the redistribution in an oppositional field. The people left the United Opposition, “Batkivshchyna” at the head of which the weak leader is, but come to Klitschko. And in the sum they have all the same oppositional support, electoral which was earlier and was predicted.

- What the operating ruling team doesn't arrange to the West? After all it expresses the readiness for the European integration and cooperation? Really the West is ready to stop the strategic cooperation with loyal partners on the majority of questions only because of Tymoshenko’s case?

Firstly, there is always “more equal” and “less equal” for the West. Yes, the present Ukrainian power isn't the rigid enemy for the USA or Europe – there is no such. And consequently, the relations are not such, as, for example, to the regime in Belarus or Venezuela. But now Ukraine is included into a certain transition period which can change in 2015 or not change and remain the same. And they already start to stake. And it is better for them that there was a transitional regime because Yatsenyuk, and Klitschko are “more equal” for them, more definitely adjusted to the west, to the USA. It is an important part of the relation to Ukraine today.

As to Yulia Tymoshenko, the Ukrainian power lost the PR company. The big mistake was made from the very beginning of Tymoshenko's prosecution on gas case – it was impossible to present this situation convincingly for the public opinion in the West. As this is the political decision and nobody will prove the opposite. Then, when it was already understood, there were other matters. But well worked company in the West and good money which was left, created the public opinion.

It is necessary to understand that the public opinion considerably influences the country leaders’ position in the West. It is not so influences at us or in Russia, but they couldn't ignore this subject there any more in general. But I consider that this subject is the second in importance. The first is a destiny of Ukraine, which side it will go. It means that if Ukraine will go to the Customs Union now, there will be much more rigid actions against Ukraine, I think that any sanctions will join also. If won't go to the Customs Union, then they will scold Ukraine for a year, but the outcome will be expected in 2015, without breaking off the communications today.

- What are your forecasts about the results of elections – will be they approximately such as the ratings at the main political forces or any surprises are possible now?

We had different cases concerning the ratings. In two weeks prior to elections there were one rating and then for the last two weeks the situation changed and, say, Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc received sometimes for 6 % above than predicted by the serious centres contrary to ratings. But today I don't expect such situation. Firstly, because Tymoshenko actually doesn't participate in pre-election process.

Therefore it seems to me that the results will be similar to those data which are in ratings now. The party lists will be won by the Party of Regions, on the second place will be either Yatsenyuk or Klitschko and now it is rather Klitschko than Yatsenyuk, on the fourth place there will be the communists and Svoboda party can go still. There is a high probability that the Party of Regions can receive 226 voices without the communists, but with communists will precisely receive more than 226 voices, I think about 250. Here is such deal and in this sense we won't receive considerably other Rada, it will be approximately the same as today. And it will be the same as today till 2014 and in 2015 everything will depend on Yanukovych's chances to be re-elected for the second term. If the chances are good, there will be a steady majority on Yanukovych's party and if the chances fall, even the majority will leave him.

Viewed : 2033   Commented: 0

Author: Mikhail Mikhaylov

Publication date : 25 October 2012 19:07

Source: The world and we

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