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The Russian-Ukrainian cooperation: the conflicts of business interests or new ways of development?

The expert of the Kiev Gorshenin institute of problems of management Vladimir Zastava told about the problems and prospects of the Russian-Ukrainian cooperation to the Internet portal “the World and We”.

- How do you estimate a condition and dynamics of development of the Russian-Ukrainian relations during Victor Yanukovich's presidency? What are the basic problems in the development of these relations, considering the activity of the European vector of the Ukrainian foreign policy?

Let's remember from what Yanukovich has begun the cadenza, namely with equilibrium relation enough both with Moscow and with Brussels. The agreements which have been signed by him with Russia on prolongation of stay of the BSF and cooperation in avia - mechanical engineering, in atomic engineering and variety of branches are estimated extremely positively by all experts. And the society estimates these actions as well positively. Gorshenin Institute did the researches after the first 100 days of presidency of Yanukovich and we have fixed that two thirds of the Ukrainians expect the returning of Yanukovich to balance and parity in foreign policy. Then, a year later, we have made the new research and the same two thirds of the Ukrainian society positively estimate the foreign policy, considering that it reflects the interests of the majority of the Ukrainians. It consists in balance between the East and the West.

The same policy was realized by president Kuchma. And only after Yushchenko's arrival we had a strong list to the West. The most part of the country didn't perceive it. Yanukovich has returned a situation to balance and supports this tendency. For the first time Europe has shown extreme interest in Ukraine and even the terms have been formulated in one of the last resolutions during which Ukraine is recommended to enter the Zone of free trade with the European Union. I.e. for today both Europe and Russia are interested in Ukraine. The Russian experts declare that the turn between Ukraine and Russia has grown on 30 % in comparison with previous year in a dollar equivalent. Now there is a dispute about where should Ukraine cooperate more – to Europe or to Russia. There is a choice before the official Kiev – to move to the entry into the Customs Union with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus or Free Trade Area with Europe.

Here it is necessary to note some rigid statements from the Russian management. A number of experts have estimated this position as the ultimatum of the Kremlin in relation to Kiev – if you go to Europe, you will have problems. The delegation of Gorshenin Institute was at last international forum of the CIS countries. And Igor Shuvalov, actually repeating Vladimir Putin's words, has declared at this forum that if Ukraine won't coordinate the European integration processes with Russia, so the Ukrainian economy can have very big problems. But the choice at Ukraine for today for the present is. Unfortunately, time works not in favor of Ukraine because there is not enough time for a choice – approximately maximum till half a year. And this year the final decision will be accepted.

It is possible even to try to foresee, to where this choice will be made, after all the majority of the largest representatives of business of Ukraine which are in the power, are interested in the European commodity markets and consequently lobby advancement of Ukraine towards Europe. The European market is priority for the enterprises of metallurgy, chemistry. It is less for businessmen but the work with Russia and the CIS is more profitable for the representatives of mechanical engineering, agriculture and they are interested in movement to the Customs Union. But their influence is less. And while all official comments of the representatives of the power are reduced to that Ukraine doesn't have alternative – only the movement to Europe. Thus it is not impossible to say that relations with Russia have worsened. But if we speak about this part of cooperation as a whole, so it is possible to say that Russia can lose Ukraine in that kind in which it would like to see. But while it isn’t correct to extrapolate on the relations of Russia and Ukraine.

- How much role in construction of the Russian-Ukrainian relations plays the conflict of the business interests of large Russian and Ukrainian corporations? For example, a situation with “Zaporizhstal” when Rinat Akhmetov wanted to buy it but the priority has been given the Russian businessmen and, ostensibly, it became an initial push for the further conflicts, including “Luganskteplovoz". How much the conflict of business interests can be key in contradictions between Russia and Ukraine?

I would consider the general process which is in the Ukrainian markets. Last year sufficiently impressive quantity of the Russian big banks set the purpose to enter the Ukrainian markets, to invest and buy up interesting actives. These big banks have come up against a situation when they can't openly compete to the Ukrainian colleagues because those use the advantages of the power to achieve their goals. It is obvious that financial resources of the Russian banks aren't comparable with Ukrainian - that is the different usages. Especially as the shareholder of the basic Russian banks is the state, state capital. The state capital of Russia and Ukraine simply isn’t comparable.

The situation with “Zaporizhstal” is one of few transactions in the Ukrainian market when the representatives of ruling class with Donetsk registration couldn't buy the interesting assets. In all other cases it was not so. And that is in the conflict of “Luganskteplovoz”, “Tatneft” and other large enterprises. And it concerns not only Russia. Recently “Krivorozhstal” and other large enterprises were “shaken” when the authorities in power reconsidered, tried to reconsider the contracts of purchase and privatization. These questions have been risen on very high level of the prime minister or the president after that they struck on hands and guaranteed that these actions will be eliminated. And in some days the Attorney General’s Office or State property fund made the next claim, the next unfriendly step to the foreign capital. And all began in a new way. “Tatneft” has completely lost all assets and they now are under control of one of the largest Ukrainian oligarchs. The issue with “Luganskteplovoz” was decided somehow, but it is possible to guess those compinsations which have been paid to the Russian businessmen.

Therefore it is possible to summarize that the representatives of the Ukrainian business who have the entry to the power, have realized that to compete openly, for example, with the Russian or European colleagues they can't because the resources aren't comparable. Accordingly, they have started to use the imperious levers, namely the Attorney General’s Office, courts, Presidential Administration, Supreme Rada, State property fund, any state institutions to strengthen the positions. Besides, it concerns not only Russia. It is such modus operandi of the operating largest Ukrainian capital presented in the power against the relation to all foreign investors. And then the president asks a question – why we have so little investors?

- How influence the attempts of Yanukovich on his rating simultaneously to go on compromises, opposite to the ideological installations and the West and the East of Ukraine? Whether it threatens the original political “annihilation”?

The distinctions between the West and the East of Ukraine are too exaggerated by the Ukrainian politicians and political scientists who try to earn on it any public dividends. Actually, the West and the East want the same – improvement of life quality and elimination of problems in economy. The results of researches of Gorshenin institute accurately testify it. About 90 % of the Ukrainians considers that elimination of economic problems should be the prime task of the president. So it was and when he entered a post of the president and year later. Now these questions and any others are in the foreground. Not the questions of language, distinction of beliefs etc. The Ukrainians are disturbed today by the condition of their personal purse against a rise in prices for foodstuff, housing and communal services, for gasoline in the foreground. It is the basic inquiry of a society. And, likely, the rating falling of the president and party in power which is fixed by all sociological services, says that the authorities in power not absolutely effectively cope with this primary goal, according to the Ukrainians. It is not correct to discuss how the falling installation of monuments influences the rating slump. The Ukrainians still expect from the working president of the decision of economic problems and improvement of the life.

- How much the cooperation of Russia and Ukraine in sphere of introduction of innovations is perspective? Whether it is possible, that this direction will give a new constructive impulse to development of these relations?

It is obvious that Ukraine and Russia have the same problem – the absence of those innovative technologies. Both the Ukrainian and the Russian economy are the natives of the USSR in which at the moment of disintegration, maybe, there were any innovative technologies, but then the investments weren't put into their development. They began to speak about it and started to operate more recently. From this point of view, Ukraine and Russia have lost already almost two decades. Now we will be compelled to make up for that way which Europe has passed for a long time and very effectively. The basic problem is that the Ukrainian and Russian goods aren't capable to compete to the world standards in immediate prospects. Therefore there is a question how to leave on the same level in the modern world, considering the deficiency of resources? We have not only financial deficiency but the deficiency of a time resource. Because we have some years to leave on world level. The entry of Ukraine into EU would allow Ukraine to raise the standards in any sectors. But for today the prospect of such entry is absent, about what the European politicians speak. First of all Europe is interested in creation of Free Trade Area and possibility to realize the goods here. They are interested to export, basically, the raw materials. While the whole world struggles for highly remunerative innovative technologies and manufacture. Russia, unlike Ukraine, has any safety factor, stabilization fund, surplus of resources. Whence Ukraine should take the resources on an innovation is an opened question.

But we have enough qualified personnel. After the Soviet Union the whole generation of people possesses the good qualification even according to the European standards. In this sense, it would be profitable for Russia to use the presence of these personnel for increase of the competitiveness, for increase of manufacture of a competitive product. Then also Ukraine can leave on new level at the expense of this lifting. There is an opened question, how to adjust such cooperation between the countries. The benefits of such symbiosis are not quite understandable in Russia. After all instead of political association which remains unpromising, such economic integration, scientific and technical cooperation, instead of the Customs Union, could raise the interaction level very much. And in this sense Russia considerably would raise the trunk-call position in interaction with the same Europe.

- How much the scenario of Tunis and Egypt is urgent for Ukraine? Whether it is possible, that the discontent with internal policy can be shown in the form of similar actions?

To begin with it is necessary to understand, why there were the revolutions in these Arabian countries. The number of experts express, that the so-called demonstration effect of property stratification was one of the main reasons. When the overwhelming part of a society understood that very small group of people who personified the power in these countries, are madly rich. And at this state of affairs neither they, nor their children don't have any prospects, that to live in such way. Here these hopelessness and irritation gradually developed into fury which turned to the revolutions.

How much such situation of property stratification is lawful for Ukraine? The answer is simple - what quantity of people drive the expensive cars, live in luxury and what quantity of people is compelled to search for last copecks to buy bread? Our colleagues made the researches in Russia – who are the potential participants for carrying out of similar revolutions in Russia. It turned out that it is the people from 30 till 49 years who have a desire to work, provide themselves and their family and have all necessary for this purpose – education, health, qualification, but there is no possibility. Namely this group of people also is the potential participants for carrying out of similar revolutions. Possibly, it is correct and for Ukraine. The tax Maydan, the meetings of doctors and teachers across all country, the businessmen who tried to reach Kiev to reach the authorities. All this is the demonstration of a certain tendency. It means the conclusions of the Russians.

Viewed : 653   Commented: 0

Author: Михаил Михайлов

Publication date : 09 September 2011 01:00

Source: The world and we

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