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The conflict round the law of the languages is the real opposition or political techniques? Opinion of leading Ukrainian experts

The leading Ukrainian political scientists commented on a situation round adoption of law of Ukraine “About principles of the state language policy” specially for the Internet portal “The world and we”.


Rostislav Vladimirovich Ishchenko is the political scientist, the president of the Center of the system analysis and forecasting: “The conflicts because of the law of the languages won't affect the results of upcoming elections in any way”.

- How the situation round adoption of the language law will develop in your opinion?

In my opinion, any existing laws and any changes in laws which are now made, by and large change nothing. There were also previous laws which weren't carried out at all - always there is a problem of implementation of any laws adopted in the Verkhovna Rada, including the law of the regional status of languages at the level of by-laws.

- Will the opposition actions become aggravated, more serious protest actions be carried out?

I think as the opposition actions and the party in power will increase. Both the first and the second will fight very seriously round this law. But the basic in this situation is that the new laws don't lead to essential changes. Actually, everything that try to introduce by means of this law, in many respects was already designated by the previous laws, but always there were problems at the following stage, namely by-laws. In a case of this law, the fight is not for a high-grade legislative initiative, but pro or con of the law which is used as an occasion. The hundred deputies came to fight pro, the hundred deputies came to fight con, but the essence of this law and ways of its realization are not the main for them in this situation precisely.


- Is the conflict round this law more the political techniques which are favorable also to Party of Regions and opposition before elections?

This situation can be the element of the political techniques. Both the Party of Regions and the opposition can think that it helps them. But from my point of view this conflict helps nobody and nothing. I do not think that the situation will become aggravated further. 500 people will protest, as much leaves in support of the law. But everything that people who worked over this law thought out, won't affect future elections in any way.

- Are the hidden arrangements between the party in power and opposition on coordination of the development of this “conflict” possible?

Actually, there is no arrangement between the parties. Both Party of Regions and the oppositionists try to fulfill this moment in own favor. Each of forces tries to find advantages round a situation with vote for this law. But all this activity won't change a ratio between the Party of Regions and oppositionists on elections in any way – their results will be approximately identical.
 

Mikhail Borisovich Pogrebinsky is the political scientist,

director of the Kiev center of political researches and conflictology: “The president should act more rigidly and give a command to disperse the protest action”.

- Will the situation round adoption of the “language” law develop in sharper key or it is more populist actions before the elections?

It depends on how the president will behave and what events the opposition will consider as its chances. I consider that it is impossible to give a reasonable forecast in this respect. It seems to me that the opposition which forced the president to cancel the press conference, won some private victory. I consider that the President should give a command to disperse this action, as all truth is on his side: both legal and moral. The law relies on the European norms, reflects the opinion of the majority of the population not only of the East and the South, but also the country as a whole. Therefore the President should act more rigidly. But if he wants to make concessions, for example, won't sign the law, so the protest activity will quickly come to naught. But it seems to me that nevertheless he is not such that when you press him, he shows hardness. Therefore I think that tension will remain and the opposition will look for a way to destabilize a situation. They had a ghost of a chance to leave the prospect of still Yanukovych's three-year board. And they try to use this chance.

Vladimir Vladimirovich Kornilov is the political scientist, the director of the Ukrainian branch of Institute of the CIS countries: “The Ukrainian national democrats don't know the ways of “language” protection, except a ban of other languages”.

- Will the situation round adoption of law about the regional status of languages of national minorities become aggravated, or it is a way of receipt of dividends for political forces before the elections and the protest actions won't have serious consequences?

It already led to certain serious consequences. For example, the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada announced his resignation, the tear gas was applied during collisions with militia. That is, it is already enough serious consequences. Though it is possible to call them as populist – it is clear that all this becomes on the threshold of elections, for the sake of elections and for the sake of receiving additional percent and voices. In due time, I publicly called the Party of Regions and Yanukovych that they would solve the matter when they had a popularity peak, instead of postponed for the pre-election period. Then there would be no so serious aggravation as now. It is clear that at present both parties will use this bill and will undertake the sharp steps for the sake of the populist purposes, for the sake of the pre-election company. The serious political struggle flared up and the rates are very high.

- What prospects has the statement of the President Yanukovych of possible early dissolution of parliament?

It is possible theoretically. The president can have a basis for parliament dissolution somewhere by the end of August. After that the early election are appointed on which two months are taken away according to the law. And if to count when these “early” elections should pass, if the Verkhovna Rada would be dismissed at the end of August, so it will appear that the elections will be at the end of October. That is, during the same period when the next elections should pass. Respectively, it is theoretically possible to dismiss the parliament and to call the next elections as early, but what is the sense in it both for the party in power and for opposition?

- The representatives of some nationalist movements affirms that the adoption of this law can become the beginning of civil war and urge to organize the independent authorities. Is it possible the situation development according to such scenario?

If to consider the language laws as the beginning of civil war then we have this “civil” war since 1989 when the law of languages was passed which acts nowadays. Since then the mass of by-laws is accepted which limit the Russian language functioning in this state. As a matter of fact this “war” was untied long ago. And for some reason we are constantly urged to look for a compromise on the terms of total surrender. Thus many national democratic political scientists and journalists call that the state didn't interfere in language policy in any way. But if you call for it, so let's cancel simply all language laws and restrictions. Let's cancel the law of languages of 1989, cancel also this still not passed law, cancel the tenth article of the Constitution and the state will really stop the intervention to the language sphere. Why not? I think that then many problems will really disappear, the intensity will fall down. But after all the national democrats won't do that. They actually don't want that the state didn't interfere in language policy. Than what the Ukrainian nationalist differs from those who fight for multi-lingua in this country? That, the defenders of multi-lingua support the ban removal and the so-called Ukrainian national democrats don't see a different way of protection of own “language” as to forbid others. This is the essence of their policy.

Viewed : 1448   Commented: 3

Author: Yury Karnovsky

Publication date : 07 July 2012 20:15

Source: The world and we

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