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Ivan Datsenko from Ukraine is the leader of the Indians and the agent of the Soviet intelligence service

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The entry of Ukraine into Free Trade Zone with the European Union – are the benefits for politicians?

Why the details of negotiations of the entry of Ukraine into FTZ and EU are kept the secret, whether are any calculations of economic efficiency of this geopolitical step, what value has the entry of Ukraine into FTZ with the CIS — these and other questions are answered by the political scientist, the director of the Ukrainian branch of Institute of the CIS countries Vladimir Vladimirovich Kornilov.

- The contract signing of Free Trade Zone with the CIS has caused the big resonance and hopes that Ukraine will move to integration with the Customs Union. But already the Ukrainian politicians and the president made the statements that the course on European integration is priority. And the representative of the government of Ukraine concerning the European integration Valery Pyatnitsky has declared that “in case of signing of the agreement of Free Trade Zone with the European Union, so the entry of Ukraine in any economic union is excluded”. In your opinion, whether is it really the activization of integration processes with Russia or it is a way of pressure upon the European partners for reception of necessary results in negotiations about FTZ with EU?


- I want to concern especially the statements of Pyatnitsky. He already has passed the common sense frameworks in the aspiration at any cost to sign the agreement of FTZ with EU. His statement that Ukraine can't enter anywhere after signing FTZ with EU, doesn't maintain any criticism. Pyatnitsky so wants to pass for the European integrator that doesn't understand, how he makes the disservice to those people who dream of Ukraine in EU. It turns out that if we sign this agreement, it lays down by servitude on Ukraine and we are limited in the maneuver, the actions further and we can’t sign something more in general. Mister Pyatnitsky was absolutely lost in space and in time, aspiring to involve Ukraine in the agreement of FTZ with EU “though with the help of a stuffed animal or a trunk”, at the cost of any economic and national interests. It already was at contracts signing with the variety of member countries of the WTO. As to the idea which he has stated, so it is necessary to notice: the European Union is a customs union and, besides, it consists in the several customs unions. However it doesn't prevent to carry on negotiations about FTZ with approximately thirty states simultaneously, including Ukraine. And Ukraine conducts the variety of negotiations on FTZ with Turkey, Syria, Israel, Vietnam, having signed the similar agreements not only with the CIS, but also with Iceland, Switzerland. Thus, there are no any restrictions for somebody! Ukraine can carry on negotiations in parallel conserning the Customs Union and FTZ with EU. Another is important in this situation, namely the integration processes on Eurasian, post-Soviet space proceed and unfortunately, proceed without Ukraine for quite some time now. In general, as a result Ukraine can appear in a certain “gray” zone. It will break the European Union, knock with a forehead, beg: “Well, at least will you blink an eye to us, hint that once you see us in EU”. But they won’t proudly enter the Customs Union and other integration projects. As a result, EU doesn't take it and it be all alone at station, looking after the train which has left already of the Eurasian integration. Actually it is a position, to put it mildly, not clever, it is impossible to name it strategy. And I consider that similar statements in the manner of Pyatnitsky don't show that fact that in the upper class of Ukraine have appeared though any rudiments of wisdom and strategic thinking.

- In your opinion, whether such statement of Pyatnitsky reflects a position of the top management of Ukraine? After all, right after signing FTZ with the CIS, so the statement that a priority is European integration has sounded from the president.

The top management of Ukraine shows a certain element of “hypocrisy” - Pyatnitsky goes to Europe and sounds a top management position about the European prospects and equal on a post Mr. Muntiyan goes to Russia and sounds a position of the top management of Ukraine about desire to develop the relation on the post-Soviet space. It is difficult enough to understand who, saying absolutely contradicting each other things, reflects the will of the top management. And in this sense there are Yanukovich's statements for unacceptability of the Customs Union and there is the recent statement of prime minister Azarov stated by him in interview to the newspaper “2000” where he says that would like the advancement of Ukraine on the East and sees the future development of the Ukrainian economy closely connected with Common Economic Space (CES) and integration projects on the Eurasian space. We see that Ukraine tries to remain sitting on two chairs again and to show the notorious multi-vector nature. Yes, I consider that the dialogue conducting in all directions (by the way, not only on two) is just a sensible, clever position. We really should consider, compare, but thus to understand that the calculations based on a momentary, present, tactical situation, aren't optimum – the prospection is necessary. It is necessary to consider the benefits of Ukraine of that will be through 20-30 years and forecasts about a situation in the old woman-Europe through 15-20 years are known for all. Therefore it is not necessary to become attached to momentary calculations. Though, notice, that Mr. Pyatnitsky doesn't result even the momentary calculations.

- Concerning the calculations - the majority of experts mark the considerably big benefits from the entry into the Customs Union for Ukraine than from the entry into the Free Trade Zone with Europe. And, nevertheless, the Ukrainian management persistently continues a course on the entry into FTZ with EU. In your opinion such actions are proved by search of the best variant for the state, or more likely the clan-oligarchic interests are pursued here?

If it isn't favourable for Ukraine in economic sense, so it isn't favourable also to clan-oligarchic interests. As the macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine directly depend on economic indicators of variety of the enterprises on which, actually, and gross national product of Ukraine is based. Therefore, if to speak only about the economic interests, so these interests coincide. It is difficult to judge, how the calculations of the Russian economists is true which show the possible profit, incomes and benefits of Ukraine from joining to the Customs Union. There is not unreasonable criticism of these calculations from the side of the Ukrainian experts. Many people reproach the Russian colleagues that they spin out of thin air. But I always pay attention that nobody give the other calculations after all! There are no calculations showing the benefit of Ukraine from the entry into FTZ with EU in general! Valery Chaly, the former deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, on one of round tables at a press has declared to me that he saw these calculations somewhere deep in bowels of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. I have offered him: then show tem, show to their people. Why they have coded these calculations, that these calculations didn't see somebody? Or they are such terrible for Ukraine that are afraid to show them, or that is closer to true, they aren't present in the nature in general. We enter there, for the sake of illusive “European integration”! How they entered into WTO, that nobody has counted the possible risks and dangers to Ukraine at all. Approximately the same discussions on FTZ are conducted now. Thus when there are experts, we perfectly know that those who sit on the western grants would defend FTZ with EU without dependence whether it is favourable to Ukraine or not. And their opponents, accordingly, take the advance known position too. And all calculations recede on a background. As the matter, indeed, is not about an economic gain, but about civilized choice of Ukraine. Also it is not necessary to dissemble here about it!

- Whether it seems to you the paradox that Nikolay Azarov declared already in March of this year that in connection with new level of quotas, “the European market practically remains closed for Ukraine... It is not already open market, it is not free trade”. I.e. it was affirmed at the highest level that Europe creates the extremely unprofitable conditions. And nevertheless Ukraine moves in this direction all the same.


- Actually, practically nobody knows the conditions of preparing agreements on FTZ with EU. For example, you have mentioned Azarov's citation. I somehow have quoted the same calculations in one of interview which Mr. Azarov has resulted in the Cabinet of Ministers as unprofitable for Ukraine, telling about a course of negotiations and those conditions which the European Union very rigidly dictates to Ukraine. In couple of days there was an angry interview of Mr. Pyatnitsky in the UNIAN who has angrily fallen for this data on … Vladimir Kornilov. He has categorically declared that Kornilov lies, speaking that the unprofitable conditions were prepared for us. The person didn’t pay attention that I have resulted only the opinion of his immediate superior, the prime minister of Ukraine, instead of any apportions. It is surprising that they carry on negotiations and we and even the experts have only fractional information - I do not speak about the general public and journalists. We have only sketchy conversations that they do not start up our service, our transport service and they have blocked all ways and exits in air business. The same Pyatnitsky has been asked: can you deny that Kornilov has told ostensibly, but actually Azarov? He went out of the question: “I cannot open it yet”. When to open it? Will we receive this data already after signing of documents? Why they have coded these negotiations? Do we carry on negotiations on trade of arms, drugs? Why not to make the negotiating process opened, transparent, such as Russia suggests to make it on the Customs Union? Why suddenly Europe, such opened, demanding from the creation of “open society”, does not want, that we publicly conducted the discussion concerning conditions of negotiations with this Europe? Does it make the definite think that they try to impose Europe on us?

- Whether is one of the motives in support of FTZ with EU that the large Ukrainian business is more interested to provide the best conditions for export of raw materials to Europe, than in development of technological branches of manufacture at integration with Russia?

- Now we see how the structure of the Ukrainian export for the years of crisis, for last three years has sharply changed and continue to change. Europe has closed the markets. Notice that the WTO and the rules of the free market go to the background for them during the crisis in general. Have entered the frankly protectionist policy, have told about it directly and though you enter any structures, we are Europe and you are the third world, therefore play by our rules. Also pay attention to how the share of the countries of the Near East, South East Asia and the CIS has grown in structure of the Ukrainian export. And the share of Europe in this balance was strongly reduced and continues to be reduced, though the economic crisis if hasn't passed, but calmed at least. Actually our oligarchs are not against that their raw materials moved to Europe and to the USA. But they are not against that it moved to Russia too. And if suddenly on the entry way into FTZ with EU it will be found out that there are custom barriers from the Russian Federation, so many oligarchs will think for many times concerning what market is more attractive for them. Pay attention to those parliamentary hearings which occurred in the summer on theme of FTZ and the Customs Union in the Verkhovna Rada. Notice that no the oligarchs but politicians spoke about the advantages of FTZ and this phantom association with the European Union. Karasev, Tomenko, possible nationalists have spoken. And the representatives of real business, those who actually create the gross national product, just acted from a tribune with appeals not to do it, to consider the matter on the Customs Union, but not to enter into FTZ on discrimination conditions and even to reconsider the conditions of the WTO. I.e. just the representatives of large business were the unique in the Verkhovna Rada who has opposed the entry into FTZ with the European Union on these conditions. Here is the answer to your question what wanted our oligarchs more. Anyway, many of them.

Viewed : 2661   Commented: 1

Author: Михаил Михайлов

Publication date : 02 December 2011 01:00

Source: The world and we

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