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They go frightening with Eurasian Union in Ukraine, but they are being prepared to give away to gas transmission system (GTS).

Next year Ukrainian budget finally sets, based on the assumption that gas price will be $416. And it is in spite of numerous statements of Ukrainian authorities concerning the fact that already this year the “determined successes” in the talks with Russia on gas price will be achieved. About both consequent effects of this situation and Ukraine participation prospects in Eurasian integration, the well-known Ukrainian political analyst Mikhail Borisovich Pogrebinsky tells to the Internet-portal “The World and We”.

The Prime Minister Azarov says that the Ukrainian budget will withstand $400 gas price per thousand cubic meters, and it is with the assumption that right now there is not enough money for beneficiaries’ payments. In your opinion, is this statement realistic, or it is mostly a demonstrative step, taken before the forthcoming talks on the fate of the Ukrainian GTS?

- As the state, Ukraine has obligations to its citizens, and it means that the one must provide the residential sector with gas in the first instance. For decision of this problem in near full volume, we have enough domestic natural gas production. For the volume, which there is not enough, it is possible to pay and $ 400. But there are the problems of Ukrainian oligarchs that fall into a difficult position and it first of all concerns metallurgical and chemical industries, because the price of their products directly depends on the gas price. But I am not particularly disturbed by oligarchs’ revenues. Therefore, when the Prime Minister says that we, as the state, will survive – yes, we will survive.
At the same time, the significant portion of fiscal revenues comes from exports of the enterprises of these very oligarchs. Of course, we will miss something in the budget. Not only we will have to pay for the additional 10 billion cubic meters of gas for Ukrainian consumers in the residential sector, but we will miss some budget revenues from the export of metals and chemicals. But I think that we would miss it due to the economic crisis in Europe - the demand for these products there will decrease.

But, of course, the government does not want to create the problems for the oligarchs, because the one dependents on them in some measure. And this government represents the interests of big business better, than employees. Therefore they will fight for gas prices lowering and the ones will be ready for some concessions. The whole question – what concessions should be in this situation? The fact that Russia wants, in particular, the denunciation by Ukraine of its part in the Energy Charter Treaty - I think that it would be correct. But it will be a scandal. As it is, we have obvious problems with Europe, and because of it, they will worsen even more. But I do not exclude that Ukraine will have to take such step, in order to satisfy the interests of the Ukrainian oligarchs and unload the Ukrainian budget additionally.


Which format can be used to form the consortium of Ukrainian gas transportation system? Will it consist of European representatives?


- It is not known, whether the European participants will take part in the consortium or not. Theoretically, it would be right if the European consumers also took part. But most of all, the situation looks as follows – first of all you must find a Ukrainian-Russian compromise, and only then it is possible to offer something for European companies. At the same time, likely Ukraine has some difficulties to stand in opposition to the negotiators from Gazprom. So I do not exclude that, eventually, some share for European members will be given, for example, 20%.

In your opinion, will the association agreement between Ukraine and EU be accepted in the closest time?


- There is every likelihood that it will not happen. There are the statements of representatives of the Ukrainian authorities, deputies on it. I think that in the closest time, with 90% probability this agreement will not be initialed. But I leave 10%. Because this step is interesting to Europe, indeed the one creates some tension in Ukrainian-Russian relations and it is a certain symbol of departure of Ukraine from Russia. And it plays into the hands of Europeans - because they do not take without special obligations. But at the same time they aim to save their image. They say – at present time we cannot initial the agreement, because you are behaving badly with Julia. But it is used as the reason for more complex maneuvers. For example, I have recently received the letter from Julia Timoshenko, in which she asks to initial the agreement with the EU, in spite of its problems. And indeed they will be able to meet the wronged woman, and initial the agreement nevertheless.

Anatoly Gritsenko who is people's deputy from the Party, “OU- NS" (Our Ukraine – Narodnaya Samooborona”), stated that Ukraine's entry into the Eurasian Economic Community could lead to the split of the country. In your opinion, do these assumptions and generally appeared tendency to intimidate Ukraine with Eurasian Union have ground?

- I have some skepticism as to all that Ukrainian nationalists speak. They say in this manner not because it is a reality, and not even because they think so. They hate Russia – it is the main feature of the Ukrainian nationalist consciousness.


They are not so much like Ukraine, as they hate Russia.
Therefore, they say only that could interfere with the plans of integration with Russia, in any way. Of course, there is not any threat to split of the country. There is a problem with the Western Ukraine, the population of which is 12% and the one will not accept the Eurasian alliance under any conditions - most of the Western Ukraine population will be for European integration. But it concerns only three regions. A few areas that are near the center – on these territories some balance in relation to European integration and Euro-Asian projects is observed. And such sharp opposition is only in the western areas, in Galicia, it is not surprising fact, taking into account their historical memory. Is any threat in it? Well, of course, the politicians of nationalist doctrine will talk about it and the ones will impose such idea certainly. And Gritsenko is one of such politicians. I think that others will beat up to it soon and will talk about it. At the same time it should be noted that the theme of the Eurasian Union is not topical right now. Now, first of all the issues, related to the economic agreements - with the Customs Union with the entry into CES (Common Economic Space), are of current interest.

Viewed : 1747   Commented: 2

Author: Карновский Юрий Зиновьевич

Publication date : 01 April 2012 01:00

Source: The world and we

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