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Ivan Datsenko from Ukraine is the leader of the Indians and the agent of the Soviet intelligence service

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“Ukraine without Yanukovych”: The West plans to “appoint” the new president in 2013.

If the regionals don't change a state policy, first of all in the Russian-Ukrainian relations, so the new “colour revolution” will be in the country. The West openly supports opposition forces in Ukraine and doesn't recognize elections on which they won't win. The political scientist, the president of the Centre of the System Analysis and Forecasting Rostislav Vladimirovich Ishchenko answers the question of Internet portal “The world and we”.

- In mass media there was a set of comments how the policy of Russia will change in relation to Ukraine in connection with election of Vladimir Putin as the president. If to consider this question on the other hand, how in this regard the strategy of the Ukrainian management will change in the relation to Russia?

I do not think that with Putin's election, the policy of Russia concerning Ukraine will exchange somehow. Firstly, Putin was and is the recognized Russian leader irrespective he holds a post of the president or the prime minister. Secondly, the Russian management has never contradictions concerning the Ukrainian issue. Medvedev and Putin always sounded the same requirements and positions concerning Ukraine. Therefore if any changes are possible, only for the objective reasons - gradually the position of Russia will become more and more rigid.

Balancing of Ukraine between the bad relations with Russia and bad relationship with EU can't eternally proceed. Because the resource of durability is almost settled and the Ukrainian state is on the verge of collapse. If it doesn't understand in Kiev, so perfectly understand in Brussels, Washington and Moscow. For Russia it is obvious that isn't a lot of time for actions. Therefore, the pressure on Ukraine will amplify - much better to force to be on friendly terms in due time, than to come to the ashes then and to try to construct something new.

As to a position of the Ukrainian power – if the leadership of the Party of Regions would have the intelligence, the position of the Ukrainian management in relation to Russia would change for a long time. Because it is impossible to sit and wait for two years – at last when a position of Russia or EU position will be changed. If nobody wants to be on friendly terms with you, so, obviously, it is necessary to look in a mirror and to understand why. It was told to the Ukrainian management what they want from Ukraine in order that the Russian-Ukrainian relations developed fast rates and that all Ukrainian wishes were satisfied.

They wanted the introduction in the Customs Union from Ukraine and explained why. Because the big integration association is created, today the economic and the political in prospect and Ukraine can become an important component of this association. It is favourable to all – both Ukraine and Russia and even to Kazakhstan and Belarus. This association has for Russia not only economic value, but also political, military, geostrategic. But for Ukraine, first of all, it is the possibility to stand economically.

Explanations were given completely transparent and nobody hid that at readiness of Ukraine to enter the Customs Union, it can be presented the additional preferences. This is the gas according to rules of Customs Union, at the in-Russian prices and possibility of an exit to the markets of the countries of the Customs Union in bigger volume than it occurs now and cooperation possibility in strategic industries. But, besides, Russia assumed the obligation to pay the expenses connected with need of increase of the customs duties in 2-2, 5 times at the introduction of Ukraine in the Customs Union from the level which exists according to the arrangement from the WTO.

Ukraine wants to raise these taxes because at last, in some years after accession to WTO thought that entered on absolutely discrimination, not favourable conditions to our country. Ukraine can't raise them because will pay huge penalties in that to the countries with which it agreed about one size of duties and now wants to agree about other. And nobody comes to meet it.

Because all are able to count the money. If the Ukrainians badly counted the money a few years ago, so who is the doctor for them. The unique possibility thanks to which Ukraine could solve this problem is the introduction in the Customs Union and change of duties by attendance order in connection with new obligations. And Russia was ready to pay expenses, those financial claims which would be shown to Ukraine. And the benefit from it would be received by the Ukrainian producers because the conditions would be severe for the European production in the Ukrainian market. Thus, the competitiveness of the Ukrainian industry would be raised.

This is that set of very favourable offers which was made to Ukraine. If now the country leaders go worldwide, beg and can't find 10-15 billion dollars as the credit for the country, so here they were promised “simply”10 billion dollars a year – take and earn them, here they already lie. Without saying, that there would be a preferential crediting for joint projects. Moreover, Ukraine thus could solve partially the problems of South Stream, disturbing it. It is clear that if it started to build, it will be constructed. But will be there one line or four, what will be the capacity – that is the question. Because if it will be around 60 billion cubic meters, the Ukrainian GTS will be filled with gas below profitability. Transit through Ukraine will be minimum and to keep the GTS which is capable to pump over 140 billion cubic meters isn't profitable if it will simply download 30 billion cubic meters in it. Respectively, all Ukrainian GTS will turn into scrap metal. This question was solved at the introduction in the Customs Union. But while the Ukrainian management refuses even to consider these arguments. And there is no progress on this way.

Then other proposal was made to Ukraine – if you want to achieve only the reduction of gas price, but don't want to enter the Customs Union, please, achieve it. It is clear that it is possible to reach temporary, not forever by GTS sale to Gazprom. It is not important how it will be called as the international consortium or rent actually it will be the control transfer over GTS to Gazprom. If you want, let's agree about cost and a discount. If to carry on constructive negotiations, it would be possible to achieve even the signing of new gas agreements.

For Gazprom the control over the Ukrainian GTS becomes less important. Hardly, it will be necessary for somebody after completion of South Stream construction. Ukraine had a possibility to achieve good conditions. For example, to agree about reasonable prices on gas during period of validity of the contract signed by Tymoshenko, i.e. till 2019 then it would be possible to sign the new contract on more favourable conditions. The Ukrainian power had a space for maneuvers. But to maneuver efficiently, it is necessary to understand that the agreement is a compromise fruit and the concessions should be from two parties.

Russia made the concession, when in principle agreed to carry on negotiations on reduction of gas price and even for signing of the new agreement. Now it is the turn of Ukraine: it should pass the part of a way to a compromise.

While the Ukrainian management doesn't show not only the possibilities somehow to replace a course in the relations with Russia, but even the prospects of that they reflect over it. It took absolutely “stupid”, hard line – we won’t go on any concessions to somebody. Also meets the same position both in Moscow and in Brussels and in Washington. If you won't go on concessions and we won't go. Also we will see who will live longer. For some reason there is a confidence that they will live longer than Ukraine.

- Having considering so significant benefits from the introduction of Ukraine in the Customs Union, the refusal of it is caused more by a position of the Ukrainian management or influence on a situation of the western states?

It is connected with high level of incompetence and inadequacy of the Ukrainian power. And not only authorities in power, but also all political elite. These are the people who live in peace of legends. They don't understand what is the policy at all though many years are engaged in it. Let it looks a little grotesquely, but they look, as the monkeys, taken seat to play chess. Approximately so they politicize.

What arguments does the Ukrainian management have against the entry into the Customs Union?

Firstly, as always, it is forbidden by the Constitution. Thus it doesn't forbid to enter the EU. Even if it would be the truth and our Constitution forbade to enter specifically the Customs Union and permits to enter all other organizations, even in that case there are interests of the state and there is a dead law. And the Constitution always can be rewritten. But the question is that it is not necessary to copy it – there is no need in it.

Actually, Ukraine consists in a large number of the organizations which have the supranational bodies to the decision of which it will obey. Starting with the United Nations and finishing with OSCE. Moreover, Ukraine had the aim to enter EU and there didn't hide that go by the way of creation of the uniform Union State. Thus, Ukraine was ready to enter not only the organization which had supranational bodies, but was ready to be integrated into other state formation. And the Constitution wasn't an obstacle in this case. It is the first legend concerning our Constitution which selectively prevents us to be integrated into certain structures.

The second legend is connected with the Ukrainian business and politicians. They consider that the Russians will come and take everything away from them– will take off the last shirt and throw out on the street. Actually any businessmen will take away – both Russian and American, and Chinese. Any business which will come to Ukraine will be more effective, than local business. Because the Ukrainian businessmen got used to work with the full state support, when all their unjustified expenses are paid from the budget.

The country leaders struggle to keep their head above water, trying to get out of the cheap energy carriers because on equal terms, for example, they can't compete to the German industry. Or there is a direct theft – have stolen the plant, sold it and earned money on it.

Naturally, such “effective” managers and economists can’t compete on equal terms with somebody. But it doesn't mean that the plants would be taken away from them as they took them away for themselves in due time. Actually, the market competition assumes that if you are not the effective owner and I’m interested in your enterprise, I can simply buy it. Therefore, you receive any money. It is clear that you receive not so much, how many zeroes you will draw, but receive so much, how many it costs now in the market. And if you ruined the enterprise during 20 years, it is clear that it will cost cheaper considerably than 20 years ago. But all the same it is very big money which, certainly, will allow any large Ukrainian owner, his family, children and grandsons quietly to live and not to think about something in the next hundred years.

So any business, Russian or American will operate so. Because nobody will suffer the inefficient production nearby. Or they will buy it and will make effective, or will sell out on scrap metal, but to distract resources in order that is artificial, by means of the state protectionism to support the inefficient production afloat will nobody allow if to play in an equal conditions.

And it is necessary to play in the equal conditions because Ukraine is not North Korea, all its economy and the budget is filled at the expense of export. Ukraine wanted very much and became the member of the WTO and it has the huge package of obligations. It can’t be closed - all the same will be a part of world economy. It means, in any case, or the Ukrainian owners become effective, or there will be other owners. And nothing you will make here– it is possible to hold for some years, but it can't proceed eternally. If you aren't able to head, aren't able to govern, so it means you will leave.

Otherwise your enterprises will collapse directly at you in hands and will cost nothing. A living example is GTS of Ukraine. 20 years ago would pay for it any money and accepted any arrangements. Now it still costs something, but already not so much. 5 more years will pass and it would be necessary to pay extra, that someone cleaned it from here, at least collecting the scrap metal. Therefore at present the Ukrainian business and political elite lives in the myth sphere that someone try to take away something from them. Actually, if they would like, they would take away long ago. The regime of Muammar Gaddafi was much stronger than Ukrainian – he was taken away everything, even the life.

The third myth is that Ukraine the sovereign state and the sovereignty is the supreme, outrageous value which should be cherished as the apple of the eye and continuously to strengthen. Actually Ukraine isn't the sovereign state and can't be it because the sovereign state is the state which is able to protect the interests and the territory.

Ukraine unable to solve these problems because Ukraine has no army for a long time, Ukraine practically doesn't go in for foreign policy - existence of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and embassies doesn't mean that the intelligent policy is carried out a little. Within the country there is the real split which is constantly going deep and there is a real danger of failure of a situation to civil war. Therefore, this is quasi state, cancelled state. Thus, the Ukrainian “sovereignty” is guaranteed by external players. It can be proceed only until the depriving of this sovereignty is necessary to nobody. Ukraine is unable to guarantee the sovereignty by the internal forces and resources.

Therefore, all these prayers to god of the sovereignty are the next legend, ritual which the politicians consider necessary to support. It very seriously prevents society to be guided correctly in the circumstances. It would seem, 20 years we are “independent”, we have coat of arms, the anthem, flag, the President, parliament, it seems the army, a whole lot of admirals, even any fleet floats. We have all formal attributes of the sovereignty, including the national monetary unit. It means, likely, that the sovereignty exists? This is usual linear logic which assumes the ignorance of a real state of affairs, not desire to know it and also the lack of ability to analyze the facts lying on a surface.

If the Ukrainian management, it is not important Yushchenko or Yanukovych, goes for legalization to Washington or Brussels, or even to Moscow, considering that election as own people isn't enough to be considered as the real president, it means the state isn't high-grade. Because the sources of its sovereignty, sources of legalization of his leaders are outside of this state and depend on the politicians elected by other people. Therefore, it is not necessary to speak about the Ukrainian sovereignty today.

And if we have neither sovereignty nor the states, even the united nation, then there is a question – what actually is in this territory? Obviously, there are people in this territory, citizens of Ukraine of different nationalities who became these people casually while the USSR was divided on administrative borders.

Obviously, they have usual vital interests – they want to have work, a worthy salary, the state protection and a stability guarantee. And, possibly, the heads, responsible before the people, should satisfy these requirements first of all.

What is it necessary for stability? Firstly, the price reduction of energy carriers. And the second major task is the solution of a question of internal opposition of two large ethnic communities – the Russian Ukrainians and Galician Ukrainians, who speak different languages, pray to different gods, go to different churches, but, nevertheless, live in one territory and by inheritance from the Soviet power all are called as the Ukrainians. From my point of view, the solution of this question today, after Yushchenko who persistently advanced the Ukrainization and by that woke the Russian part of the Ukrainian people, is possible only on a way of absolute equality of these two ethnic, linguistic, confessional communities. Until the considerable part of the population feels restrained, people of the second grade, it is not necessary to speak about stability.

Supporters of the Ukrainization argue: do you think the Ukrainian is the unique state language and is it difficult to study it? It is not difficult to study it. I am sure that 99 % of the population which lived at the time of the Soviet power studied it because then it taught at school. But it is the matter of satisfaction of fundamental requirements. I don't understand, why the radio stations and the TV channels working for the Russian-speaking territory should give 50-70 % of a broadcasting time to the broadcasting in the Ukrainian or to reduce this percent by cunnings.

It is known that in the 70th years the English language was forced almost out in the USA, in the State of Florida and its capital of Miami. Now it is very difficult for meeting it for one reason – mass Cuban and Latin American immigration. And when business found out that all demand is in Spanish, advertising was in Spanish, they began to speak Spanish in shops and restaurants– actually English was forced out, despite that it was the state one. And nobody worried about it. Because it is impossible to break the interests of business. He will go there and will speak that language which is favourable to sell.

Therefore now the defenders of the Ukrainian continuously sob concerning that 90 % of printed matter in Ukraine release in the Russian. But when they say, that 80 % of the population speak in the Ukrainian though it is not the truth, a question arises – those who speak in the Ukrainian don't read in own language on principle? They aren't able to read in own language? Or these materials don't translate into their language which they want to read? Actually this figure 90 % of printed matter in the Russian shows a real ratio of use of the languages of the country. People can say that they act for unique state Ukrainian, they even can try speaks in the Ukrainian as it is done unsuccessfully by Nikolay Yanovich Azarov, but you won't deceive yourself. And when you come to buy the book, you will buy it in that language on which you will read. And it is the same with other production – television and radio.

The most part of the Ukrainian Internet is in the Russian language and for some reason 70 % of television should be in the Ukrainian? It is the serious error allowed by the authorities for a long time and, unfortunately, taken roots in defined grade in the minds of the population – if the state is called Ukraine, so the language should be Ukrainian. It will work for destabilization until will be reached the actual bilingualism. Until it won't occur, always there will be a reason for opposition, split, the heavy civil instability which is smoothly flowing in cold civil war and even in hot in the country.

Economic problems are the general both in Lvov and in Kharkov. But for some reason very accurately the regions of Ukraine vote for different types of politicians. And this division becomes more and more strong. And you will not deceive objective situation– it is possible to say that politicians think out it before the elections specially. But nobody will specially think out, if it doesn't find a response from electorate. People go to vote for that is close to them. Suggest them to rename the Moon into Mars - they won't go to vote for you because of this. But when it is spoken to them about language – they go and vote. It means, it seriously disturbs them.

It is clear that the West Ukrainian politicians managed to raise partially any quantity of the population in case there is a direct question of bilingualism. Some time they will writhe in hysterics. But this some limited time and this hysterics doesn't bear any danger to the internal stability in the country. Because, firstly, nobody encroaches on their right to speak and watch TV in the Ukrainian. Be competitive and if it will be interesting to business to talk to you in the Ukrainian, it will speak the Ukranian language.

And the second moment – they have nowhere to go. The Russian part of the population can say – if you have the Ukrainian state, you speak the Ukrainian, than go to borders of the Ukrainian state and we will go to the Russian. But there is no place to go – not to Poland. And to be separated, as they often say it as a part of 3-7 areas is very heavy and unprofitable. Hardly someone from the West Ukrainian politicians, except absolutely thorough radicals, is ready to construct a fascist regime and to suppress the own population in the Western Ukraine. It will bring huge economic problems, will sharply lower a standard of living of the population of these regions and sharply devaluates the idea of the Ukrainian nationalism even in the West Ukrainian areas.

Therefore they have nowhere to go – will shout and calm down. As there is no infringement of their rights, as I’ve already told, nobody encroaches on their right to speak the native language. They will simply be taken away the right to impose own language on another people.

Therefore for achievement of a certain internal stability it is necessary to resolve the questions of two Ukrainian communities, two people related to national development so that each of them felt that it is his state. Otherwise, when some millions consider that this is not their state, there won’t be stability in such state. Besides, the solution of the humanitarian affairs connected with requirements of the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine, automatically improves the relations with Russia. After all it is impossible to discriminate the Russians on the one hand here and on the other hand to ask the economic preferences from the Russians. Thus, the solution of this question has serious foreign policy background. I think that if problems of inadequacy of politicians will be solved, the solution of these questions is a trick and literally two-three months of simple negotiations. Where there is a desire, there is always the result.

- Some experts argue that the Party of Regions for some years of the stay in power made all mistakes which could be made. Nevertheless, it is still on the first place in ratings. If to consider a pre-election situation – how the events will develop, are there any alternatives of the Party of Regions, what political forces have the best prospects on elections?

Firstly, the party which is on the first place on elections, not surely is the winner of these elections. Because one matter is when the party forms over 50 % of parliament and another matter is when the party collects 15-20 % of votes of the population and then others, having united, can leave it in minority. The reason of enough steady situation of the Party of Regions is that the Ukrainian voters understood that they have no choice by and large during 20 years. And irrespective of who is the power or opposition, these people are equally far from understanding and readiness to protect the interests of society and the people.

As the opposition leaders surely discredited themselves long ago not less, than the same Party of Regions and is no place to voices to flow especially, no alternative project exists, so many refuse to vote or are going to vote against all. But the balance of voices approximately remains, despite that the Party of Regions lost much. Today the United Opposition headed by Yatsenyuk and Turchinov and the Party of Regions have approximately identical ratings. The part of voices from the Party of Regions certainly left to communists and thus consider that only these three political forces pass in Rada with guarantee. Thus, there is an opinion that if nothing will exchange, the Party of Regions and communists can potentially restore the majority in new Rada.

But there is very important factor – the elections will be not only on proportional system, but also on the majority. Therefore, the Party of Regions together with communists even having received the majority can receive it only among 225 deputies. And 225 more will be chosen on majority districts. These are more independent deputies and deputies who are guided by the strong power. If they see that the power is weak that it is unsteady, they start to be reoriented on opposition, understanding that in half a year the opposition becomes the strong power. We observed such overflow within the last year of Kuchma's second presidential cadence. Then seemingly steady pro-presidential majority was dissolved in time and space and the parliament became oppositional. All this occurred at the expense of majoritarians.

Now there is not a secret that the President is actually weak – he has much power, but as a political figure he doesn't supervise a situation neither in the country, nor in relationship with foreign partners. He has no real offers, which could change a situation to the best, stabilize an economic situation, break through diplomatic blockade. It is clear that in 2015 Yanukovych can’t elected on free, honest elections. And it is clear that in 2015 nobody will allow to be chosen to Yanukovych on dishonest elections – first of all foreign partners won't allow. He goes for legalization abroad – he won't be accepted.

Therefore, the deputies who will be elected on majority districts, will be guided in the same way – if not he, but who. Moreover, they will be inclined to support those people who aren't going to suffer Yanukovych even till 2015. Therefore, the actions “Ukraine without Yanukovych” can begin right after parliamentary elections and already to the middle of 2013 will end by voluntary or not voluntary retirement of Victor Fedorovich and, respectively, new presidential election.

From the West it was repeatedly told that elections, in which Tymoshenko won't participate (and she won't participate in elections) won't be recognized. Almost it sounds so – the elections on which the opposition won't win, won't be recognized. It means that by the end of 2012 the authorities in power will come up against a situation when or the elections won't be recognized and the parliament will appear illegitimate in the opinion of our western partners, or it is necessary to create a coalition with Yatsenyuk and to give him a premier post. And after that to wait, when the company “Ukraine without Yanukovych” will begin because the premier post for Yatsenyuk is a springboard, with which it is necessary to jump very quickly – he won’t change an economic situation in the country, therefore, his rating will burn down very quickly.

Within half a year, especially, if there are rough political shocks, the rating keeps. But within a year, a rating of the prime minister would be absolutely annihilated in such situation. He can't wait more than half a year. Therefore, Yanukovych should be already in resignation to the middle of 2013 and Yatsenyuk should go on elections as the united uncontested candidate from opposition. Here are such prospects exist on the next Ukrainian elections.

But there is still the most important factor of the Ukrainian-Russian relations - it is a problem which the regionals don't understand, the president doesn't understand. If the strong opponent, who is much stronger than you, is against you and EU is unconditionally more strongly and it puts on internal political force which works against you, you can't win. You can resist and beat off only if you will have strong foreign policy support. Such support can be received only in Russia. I think nobody is mistaken how Yanukovych is “loved” in Russia.

And, certainly, if there would be a possibility to count on someone another, more adequate, they would make and allowed Yanukovych to fall. But as Yatsenyuk and the return of an “orange” gang to the power isn't better for Russia than Yanukovych and as there is no other figure, Russia will allow Yanukovych to fall only if he will continue the same mad policy. If he arrives and will sign the agreement on the introduction in the Customs Union, Russia will support him through disgust, through “I can’t” because this signed the Customs Union and the following will leave it. He will be supported for fixing and stabilization of this situation till 2015 at least. In any case, won't allow to displace him by means of the next colour revolution. In all other options there is no good game for the Party of Regions and President, not dependent on that how many percent they will gather on elections.

- Due to such prompt weakening of the Ukrainian power are there any threats of territorial integrity of Ukraine, for example, from Romania and Turkey?

Threats of territorial integrity exist always and for any state. Even the USA has the territories which Mexico will pretend under favourable circumstances. And these territories make over a third of the general space of continental America. The question consists in whether the threat of territorial integrity is latent or it is serious, today's danger. Today there is no such threat of territorial integrity of Ukraine from the outside.

Anyway, all main world players are interested or in rather strong and allied Ukraine as, for example, Russia, or are interested in Ukraine let even weak, let the territories on which there is the civil war, but existing in these borders. Therefore, while it is not necessary to expect serious infringement of the Ukrainian territory. Certainly, the situation in modern policy changes quickly, but I think that it is necessary to expect such threat, first of all from within Ukraine.

Danger of split, civil opposition, including the military exists. And every day it is more increasing because it is impossible to pursue with impunity absolutely inadequate policy for 20 years - sooner or later it leads to very unpleasant consequences. It is clear that if the country starts to fall down in the civil conflict, both parties of this conflict start to look for the allies abroad.

There are allies who can simply interfere with this conflict. But this process has also restrictions. For example, Turkey can ignore absolutely quietly the requests for the help of the Crimean Tatars. The Turks never considered them as the related people. Certainly, if there would be a possibility to snatch Crimea, they would do it with pleasure. But as there is no serious possibility, they can use the Crimean-Tatar factor in negotiations with Russia to receive any preferences on other directions.

The Crimea is a territory of dominating Russian influence because the Black Sea fleet of the Russian Federation is located there. These are those military units which can put things in order in the Crimea and these are those military units which basing in the Crimea excludes the emergence of any other military units of any foreign states there. Because the collision with the Black Sea fleet, even casual is the collision with armed forces of the nuclear power. Such “luxury” isn't presumed by any country in the world.

In case of split and the beginning of the civil conflict Russia can't refuse the support of East and Southern territories if they address for such support.

Because the Russian management which will ignore such request for the help, will be completely discredited in Russia. Therefore they should help. Any operation of military-political character bears much less expenses if it is led quickly. Respectively at adoption of such decision Russia will be interested in carrying out of fast military-political operation.

In such situation the western regions are in an emergency, who should address to someone for the help too. And as the practice of 1917-1918 years shows, they will address to Poland, Germany, EU for help.

In such situation the variant isn't excluded when the partners of Ukraine will simply agree about a certain form of establishment of control, the state division. When control of one is established on one party of Zbruch and control of others – on other party. It is quite probable outcome of internal opposition in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian politicians of the most different directions never will refuse the attraction of external forces, from their involvement in internal fight in Ukraine. And as soon as external forces will be involved, territorial split of Ukraine is inevitable. In this case it is a question not so much of threat of territorial integrity, as about absorption of separate parts of Ukraine by the foreign states.

Thus it is not important, whether any parts will be considered quasi independent and even to have the representation in the United Nations and embassies worldwide, or they will be integrated into the respective countries as territories, provinces. Actually, while Ukraine will finally fall down in civil split and both parties will involve external forces for assistance, during this moment Ukraine will stop to exist as the independent state.

Viewed : 1572   Commented: 0

Author: Mikhail Mikhaylov

Publication date : 24 September 2012 01:00

Source: The world and we

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