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Who will put things right which the USA have made in Afghanistan?

The rank of the first world power imposes a high responsibility. It doesn't mean that such position gives only privileges, in particular, the desire and possibility to swing resources and capitals from every corner of the globe. It is thought, what, first of all, the country applying for so high role in the world, should realize the responsibility for the future of all planet … Does the modern Establishment of the USA understand it?

Most likely, not absolutely, because recently some political and statesmen of this country have decided to wash simply hands of it and, having thrown fire wood in the Afghani fire that it has inflamed more hot, sharply to reduce the military presence at this country. If the statesmen of the USA studied history in colleges better, they would remember that it was possible to nobody to win Afghanistan in the history. More precisely, there were the occupations, but after a while foreign armies appeared compelled to leave the Afghani Mountains. The Afghans are the born soldiers, got used to be at war and not to surrender in the most severe conditions. They became related with poverty and misery and the blessings of a civilization are nothing for them. Did the Americans know about it, accepting the decision to begin operation “Indestructible freedom” in 2001? It seems that not absolutely, differently firstly they will look before leap …

The American elephant has begun and the donkey has finished …

The decision on input of armies to Afghanistan was accepted by president George Bush-junior elected from Republican Party, the symbol of which is the elephant. And the president Barack Obama declared about considerable reduction of the American military presence at Afghanistan who is the representative of Democratic Party which is symbolized by the donkey. Thus, figuratively being expressed, firstly the elephant has managed for a while in “crockery shop”, that is in Afghanistan but the donkey was put to eliminate the consequences of his doing … Having continuing the digression to a jungle of the national epos, it is possible to ascertain that the USA have decided not to be limited by one “treading” upon a rake, that is input of armies in this region, but to repeat the reception: to disengage the armies without having reached the powerful result.

Mr. Robert Blackwill has played special role in formation of this conclusion. He has made good career at Presidential Administration of the USA of George Bush-junior, in 2001-2003 was the ambassador of the USA in India and then was the assistant of the adviser of the US president of national safety and was responsible for strategic planning. Then he has passed to scientific sphere and now Blackwill is the senior research assistant in Council of external relations and also, under some data, works in corporation RAND. In a word, he is the influential expert to the opinion of whom everybody listens at the highest levels of presidential administration of the USA. The expert has presented for the first time the plan in influential magazine Foreign Affairs, but soon began to propagandize it personally. So, on June 3, 2011 Robert Blackwill acted with the report about it in Moscow.

So, what is this “Plan B”? Its basic essence consists in taking away the American armies from the south and the east of Afghanistan where it is difficult to them to struggle with the Talibs and insurgents from other groupings, basically, on national structure of Afghan. Blackwill writes, “At the same time Washington should recognize that “Taliban” will control Afghan south and the east sooner or later, and, to prevent a similar outcome, it is necessary to pay unacceptably high price”. The expert, of course, understands, to what this step will result, “Thus it is necessary to take the compelled step and to recognize an actual partition of the country that would be the extremely disappointing result of ten years' investments of the USA to Afghanistan, but, unfortunately, it is the best result, which Washington can reach if to take a sober view of things”.

This thought causes the deep admiration by the level of the American analytical thought: what kind of investments put the USA to Afghanistan for ten years? Perhaps they, as the USSR, built schools and hospitals in due time? Or tried to adjust the peace life there?

No, the USA has constructed there some bases and all their investments basically were expressed in bombs, shells and guided missiles which were strewed by hail on the Afghani earth. Till now it is authentically not known, how many civilians were lost for these ten years. But it is still half the trouble: if the armies would be taken away from the south and the east of Afghanistan, so the power generally will pass to the Talibs. Blackwill specifies that “certainly, the administration shouldn't give the Afghan provinces on a payoff to the Talibs or openly to call for a partition of Afghanistan”, but thus admits that formation of “Pushtunistan” will be the result of such decision, most likely.


Blackwill considers that the USA should spend further “counterterrorism operation” there, but any more not by own strength, but, as a matter of fact, by kindling of civil war in this part of Afghanistan: arms supplies, granting of the help and prospected by separate tribes which will agree. It is possible to say by experience at once that there would be much who is ready on such cooperation and no means always it will be possible to understand whether it is the Talibs or not.

The main achievement for the USA in this plan, according to Robert Blackwill, consists in reducing a foreign military contingent from 150 thousand to 30-50 thousand persons deployed in central and north provinces of Afghanistan and also Kabul.

The USA has suffered defeat in Afghanistan?!

Many experts, having familiarized with “Plan B”, have come to a conclusion that the American ruling circles are ready to capitulate before the Talibs actually. And this is with the fact that considerable successes have been reached in the last two days.

1. During the war of 2001-2011, “Taliban” has been crushed, it has lost aircraft, armor, barrel artillery, large connections of army type. The Talibs were shattered into small groups (50-100 persons in number) under the pressure of this defeat and have passed to guerrilla actions and terror. It delivers many problems and difficulties. But, nevertheless, it is obvious that performance of large operations, like a capture of a big city or capture of the whole parts of Afghanistan, is beyond their power.

2. “Taliban”, as well as other groupings of insurgents, had heavy losses, especially notable in a command link because of “hunting for commanders”, made by the Department of National Defence of Afghanistan in 2007. Almost all commanders who had preparation and experience in the organization and command of large groups and the connections equivalent to divisions, were lost.

3. War in Afghanistan is not so full-scale war, but “war of small intensity” in which battles are conducted by small groups, more often branches or platoons.

NATO command has initially made a mistake, having staking on safety by sitting in roadblocks, protection of columns and patrol. Safety has appeared doubtful, enormous resources (about 7 billion dollars per month that is 84 billion dollars per year) were spent and the insurgents always had possibility for a successful attack, bombardment or blasting. That is the NATO tried to win war, being in defence, conducting the battles only incidentally.

Besides, from 2001 to 2011years, that is for 3350 days of campaign, 0,7 of persons died on the average per day and 5,6 persons got wounds on the average. In integers, it is one lost and 10 wounded men for two days. These are losses on a contingent in more than 100 thousand persons.

These figures show that the Talibs, at all efforts, can’t make a little appreciable damage exceeding a statistical error to foreign armies. Therefore Robert Blackwill's thoughts on “high losses” in Afghanistan and about loss of the south and the east of Afghanistan is no more than display of alarmism and conditions of misunderstanding in the country. It is possible to add still unwillingness of the expert to recognize the errors of the American command which have transformed the armies in fine, besides an expensive target for the Talibs.

The economy of the USA hasn't sustained?

If to read attentively Robert Blackwill's article, expert Dmitry Verkhoturov marks, so it becomes obvious that the main reason which has induced him to proclaim these “Plan B”, were not the military or political reasons and not the successes of the Talibs, but purely financial questions. Blackwill speaks about it directly and frankly, “the present policy of the USA in Afghanistan manages in ten billion dollars, annually several hundreds of soldiers and officers of allied armies die there and all not to allow “Taliban” to take the control over Afghan province where this movement has arisen”.



Obama suggests to cut military expenses down to 400 billion dollars. In the light of this “Plan B” gets absolutely other measurement. If to reduce a contingent three times, to remove the heavy machinery and artillery, to leave a part of bases, so it is possible to press down the expenses approximately to 25 % from present, that is approximately to 1,75 billion dollars per month. It would be required 1 billion dollars at present volumes of expenses till 2023 year (Blackwill speaks about long-term campaign for 7-10 years too, that is too till 2020-2022 years) and 252 billion dollars in the frameworks of “Plan B”.

For the sake of this economy Robert Blackwiill calls for deviation of foreign armies from the south and the east of Afghanistan, for the sake of it he is ready to present the third part of territory of Afghanistan to the Talibs. “Plan B” is not so military or political plan, it, as a matter of fact, pure reduction of budget expenses without the analysis and the account of consequences which come in this case. In order to disguise this moment, Blackwill and other American experts hit in alarmism concerning a situation in southern provinces of Afghanistan.

To what it will result? Most likely, to formation of the new Talib state in the south of Afghanistan. The maps were already published in internet where a certain “Belujistan” is marked on this place. Generally, it can have any different name: “Belujistan”, “Pushtunistan”, "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” or something else. But its essence will be one - the Islamic state copying the regime of the Talibs, aimed at war and external expansion as in 1999 Talibs already declared the desire “to release sacred Bukhara”.

Further, it will be also the drug state as there are very few water, power, source of raw materials in the south of Afghanistan and it is very difficult to develop agriculture and the industry there. The opium poppy is a unique accessible kind of raw materials and Talibs have taught to use the manufacture and sale of drugs for war financing for a long time.

Now Talibs and insurgents of other groupings (not less than 4 associations are now according to the Afghani analysts) are in a difficult situation as they are pressed to the Afghan-Pakistan border from two parts. They can act only in small groups, carry out small attacks and acts of terror.


The reports of fights convince that now Talibs aren't capable to cause a little appreciable loss neither to foreign armies, nor the Afghani army and police. If to continue the pressure on them, sooner or later their manpower resources will be settled. And “Plan B” would will give “the second breath” to Talibs. They will receive huge territory which is four times more than areas which they control now, with the numerous population, with fields under a poppy, huge material resources. They will become quickly stronger and can create the large groups, capable to grasp the whole provinces. Talib threat quickly becomes real and notable …

Kyrgyzstan can become “branch” of Afghanistan

It is obvious that the Talibs taught by former experience, will try to develop activity in the countries of the Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan.
The base “Manas” is here - the largest knot of air service for needs of the American contingent. Besides, the Americans consider the plans of creation of the second base in the south of Kyrgyzstan and, most likely, with the supply purposes too. These bases become the constant purpose of attacks and acts of terrorism, as well as bases in Afghanistan.

Here there are already radical Islamites. The court over the members of “Zhamaat of Kyrgyzstan “Jaish ul-Mehdi” who were already noted in the organization of explosions, robberies, murders of militiamen has begun in Bishkek not so long ago. The agents of national security managed to reveal a network of Islamic movement of Turkestan from 39 persons among whom there were the persons prepared in Afghanistan, having the explosives. It is possible to give many similar examples and all of them show the presence of the radical Islamites in the Republic of Kyrgystan, the association with Talibs of whom is a matter of time and circumstances.

It is very easy to hire the supporters in Kyrgyzstan, as there are a lot of the dissatisfied people in the country by: poverty, political instability, international relations. The main factors are the poverty making according to IMF (most likely, inexact) 33 % of the population; the big percent of youth (the age from 14 till 27 years makes 30 % of the population), the numerous ugly social phenomena, like school racket, rural unemployment, street criminality and many other things which mention the youth. It is enough any of these factors, that young men have appeared on a hook at the talib propagandist. And the corruption which has penetrated all structures of the state and its bodies, very facilitate to Talibs the introduction of the agents.

As the analysts mark, Kyrgyzstan is open against subversive and terrorist activities, made by Talibs or other radical Islamic groupings. Only that circumstance that now Talibs throw all forces on opposition to the American, Afghani and Pakistan armies, trying to defend under control the territory on the Afghan-Pakistan border, doesn't allow them to develop the activity here at the full capacity. But if the “Plan B” would be realized and Talibs will receive, so the sharp growth of the propaganda and terrorist activity inspired by Talibs will begin in Kyrgyzstan

Pakistan also can become “branch” of Afghanistan, but with the nuclear weapon

The worst dream of the Americans can come true in this country: the nuclear weapon will come into the hands of Islamic fanatics. It is rather predictable that after that they remember Robert Blackwill, but already will be late … In this connection there is a reasonable question on problems with placing of forces and means of the American ABM in Europe: whether the Americans, that is by threat of capture of the nuclear weapon by the Islamites are going to make the European partners more compliant in this respect? But, in that case, about what trust to a policy of the USA there can be a speech if for the sake of satisfaction of the appetites of the military-industrial complex, the Americans are ready to put the lives of tens millions persons living in Asia on a bowl? And this country considers itself as “democracy stronghold” all over the world??? What is good for “General Motors”, so it is good for America? It means, the principles of the American foreign policy haven't changed since gunboats …

And Pakistan now and in the foreseeable future is unable to cope with the military, political and economic problems. Its possibilities have been strongly undermined by the acts of nature which have fallen upon the country in 2009-2010.

Its long-term contender and the opponent India has received strong support from the USA in 2009, which by the cooperation agreement in nuclear area, as a matter of fact, legitimize the Indian nuclear weapon. Thus India isn't included into the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty and isn't going to enter it. This Indian-American cooperation, inherently, is the signing of the allied agreement.

Therefore Pakistan addresses for the help to the People’s Republic of China. In May, 2011 Pakistan has suggested to place the Chinese military base in the territory, “We would be grateful to the Chinese government if the naval base has been constructed in Gwadar in Pakistan”, the Minister of Defence of Pakistan Ahmad Mukhtar has told. Gwadar is the large deep-water port constructed with the Chinese help in 2007 in a province Belujistan.

Pakistan modernizes the Air Forces by the Chinese planes. They have received now already more than hundred. The necessity of replenishment of an aircraft depot is dictated also that the Talibs attack the Pakistan air bases from time to time. On May 23, 2011 the insurgents have attacked the air base of the Air Forces of fleet of Mehran in Karachi and have destroyed two planes in a course of action. Differently, the difficult military-political knot is fastened round Pakistan in which the interests and contradictions of the USA, the People’s Republic of China, India, Iran and the countries of the Central Asia are weaved.

From the Second World War termination the leading powers avoid direct military collision which threatens inevitably to outgrow in full-scale war with an exchange of nuclear attacks. All participants of knot of contradictions have the nuclear weapon and are capable to cause immediately a huge damage to each other - to destroy ten million persons. If there will be the exchange of nuclear attacks, the situation will get out of control and becomes unpredictable and the government the USA, the People’s Republic of China aren't ready to such turn of events. Therefore the finding-out of relations in second half of XX century went usually on periphery: in Africa, in South East Asia, in the Near East, where the conflicting parties (the USSR and the USA) supported the different parties, without coming nearer to dangerous line of direct military collision. Local wars and debate in the United Nations were the usual method of conducting the conflicts, applied by superpower.

The deviation of the American armies from the southern Afghanistan with formation of “gray zone”, occupied with one or several self-proclaimed Talib states, will just create such peripheral zone where the USA and the People’s Republic of China can measure swords by another's hands, without entering the direct military collision. It is not a secret that Talib groups are supported by the different countries for a long time by: there are “American”, “British”, “Iranian”, “Pakistan”, “Chinese” Talibs, that is, the groups which are guided by support from different powers. So Afghan-Pakistan border area can quite turn in the field of collisions in a broad sense.

There is an opinion that the history learns politicians to that learns to nothing. So, the financial and industrial circles of the USA in 20 and 30th years have worked hard for revival of economy and the military power of Germany. Besides, the American capital felt itself perfectly in imperial Japan. Only in the end of 30th – the beginning of 40th years, the contradiction has become aggravated. And all has ended with Pearl Harbor and the introduction of the USA into the Second World War … Sometimes the controllable processes get out of control. It is useful to remember to everything, even to the US president.
 

Viewed : 2193   Commented: 4

Author: Карновский Юрий Зиновьевич

Publication date : 07 October 2011 21:17

Source: The world and we

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