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The U.S. State Department: Russia prepares aggression against the USA by hand of Chukchi people

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Why it is profitable to Georgia to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia

The recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is profitable to Georgia. Only the total dependence of the USA doesn't allow the Georgian elite to make this step.
The Georgian-Ossetian war, which came down in history by three eights «08.08.08», became critical for geopolitical games in the Caucasian region. After these events, the West secretly recognized the Caucasus as a zone of interests of Russia. Having discussing on the politics of the post-Soviet space, Tony Helpin writes in magazine “The Times” that «the USA doesn't contest the supremacy of Moscow in the region any more ». The journalist considers that the war of 2008 year has blackened Saakashvili's reputation as the democrat in the opinion of Europe and Obama's administration is much less than Bush’s, stands up for the reception of Georgia to the NATO. Armenia has prolonged the lease agreement of the military base by Russia till 2044. Azerbaijan is less dependent on Russia but «unsolved conflict for Nagorno-Karabakh means that Baku can't digress from a line of the former Soviet sovereign».
In support to his words, Patrick Armstrong says that the conflict of three eights «08.08.08» became the reason of "the third turn» — the cardinal review of relations of Russia with the West. «Those who know the background clearly understand that the Ossetians and the Abhazians don't want to be managed by Tbilisi, he writes. “These people were at war with Tbilisi when the Russian empire has crashed down. When Soviet Union has come apart, they have retaken all attacks of the Georgians and have won actual independence. On August, 8th, after some hours after the statement of president Saakashvili that« Georgia immediately and unilaterally will cease the fire », his army has begun the attack. The Ossetians have stopped it. And when the Russian armies have come, the Georgians have dissipated and took to flight, leaving the cities and throwing down the weapon. As a result the South Ossetia and Abkhazia welcomed the Russian liberators as they named them and have proclaimed the independence"." I consider that this war has begun the revaluation of Russia from the West », Armstrong summarizes.
And Christopher Westdal who was the Canadian ambassador in Russia from 2003 to 2006 years, is publicly distressed concerning a failure foreign policy position of Canada in relation to Russia: «The majority of the countries have successfully changed the out-of-date relation to Russia. We haven't made it. The world has continued the movement but the neoconservative thinking lives and prospers in Ottawa”.
Therefore the most painful loss for Saakashvili in the conflict of three eights «08.08.08» became not the technics thrown in the field of fight and not the lives of the Georgian soldiers ruined for nothing but the trust loss of Europe in general and chances of occurrence of Caucasian « democracy messenger» to the NATO’s block in particular. The other day the European politicians have confirmed again: Georgia can't depend on the membership in the North Atlantic block until it solve the Abkhazian and South Ossetian problem. The word “until” means “never” in the translation from diplomatic language to Russian. As regards to Germany and France, so they objected to the introduction of Georgia to the NATO till August war of 2008 year. In particular the Minister of Defence of France Herve Morin in 2007 has declared that «Paris opposes the memberships of Georgia in the North Atlantic alliance if it leads to confrontation with Russia».
Now only the USA publicly supports the idea of NATO Georgia (the American name of Georgia). But for justice’s sake it is necessary to notice that States have handed over Georgia in August 2008 without having rendered any essential help to the belligerent regime and having encouraged only. There is nothing else left for America except how to lure Saakashvili openly with different "roadmaps" on entry to NATO. And if to trust to the author of “The National Interest” Nicolas Gvozdev that now Obama's administration, despite of considerable pressing from certain forces in the Congress, has refused the deliveries of modern systems of arming to Georgia. In other words, Washington politicians only lead up the Georgian president to a neurosis because it is easy to find out that NATO for Mishiko is equal even in the affectation with the strongest instinctive inclinations as Freud would say.
The historical Georgia, as well as almost any other country, was gathered slowly. First of all this "concentration" is based on transport coherency of the region. In other words, the borders of the Soviet Georgia are logical just from the geographical point of view. Trans-Caucasian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, uniting all Transcaucasia, has been divided into three as much as possible admissible administrative and territorial units: Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia. Making the decision on outlines of the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic, the Soviet officials reflected reasonably: a place where Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia have settled down today, represents an integral site of Colchis lowland between Big and Small Caucasian spines and Black sea. The transport coherence is huge here. The Adzharian Soviet Socialist Republic and South Ossetian autonomous region have been left as a part of Georgia as a contribution of isolation of the local people. The Abkhazian Soviet Socialist Republic has simply merged with Georgian, having lowered its status to autonomous republic of Abkhazia.
However the first that the Soviet authorities haven't considered is that Soviet Union can some time be self-disbanded. And the second is that a body of the countries is formed by a human geography, namely ethnic, cultural, anthropological besides the physical geography. One of the examples is the Crimea. Today it is one of strongholds of antiukrainian moods, entered into structure of Ukraine without a referendum in 1954. The inclusion of this peninsula in structure USSR was reasonable from the geographical point of view. But it was taken only to acquire the own state by Ukraine, so as it was found out what that the population of autonomous republic Crimea doesn't wish to live in this state. And the inhabitants of this region are historically, cultural and simple by language identify themselves with Russia.
The other vivid example of a similar situation can be observed in Kosovo where the citizens of Kosovo have simply pressed through an independence question that is called by quantity and overcrowding on a ground which changed the owners several times for a century. But in that case any group which imagined itself as ethnos, can apply for own piece of a land. And any superpower can help it.
The danger of the similar scenario brought a whole lot of the stipulations to the international diplomacy, called not to lead up a situation to the point of absurdity. It is necessary to return the USA to the Indians and the Volgograd region to the Polovtsians if logically to refer to historical arguments. And if to argue what people would feel better in what states, so the half-world it is necessary to include in structure of Sweden and the half-world — in structure of Norway where the highest standards of living. Then who solves which states should be and which not?
Fortunately, the people argued about what the states are formed still B.C. Aristotle has beautifully expressed in "Politics" on that theme. Having explaining the reasons of the formation of the small states, namely the policies, he underlines that their basis include not the geographical predefinition and general "business" as they say today but desire to live together. At times the Aristotelean "desire" translates as "love". Such desire (love) can exist and contrary to geography with economy. Sometimes it is inexplicable even from the point of view of history. But eventually it decides the destiny of this or that country, this or that city. The desire to live together should be understood as unwillingness to live separately or as a part of other communities. In a case with Abkhazia and South Ossetia we see it both ways: and the desire to be independent and unwillingness to be a part of Georgia.
Probably, therefore the plan on capture of South Ossetia and Abkhazia has been imposed so that to destroy the local population, to erase a human component of geography, having left only territorial. It is really possible to present Georgia in its Soviet borders only in such depopulated kind.
Strangely enough, the unique chance of the Georgian elite also consists in it today or to be more exact, that part of elite which has still kept state instead of pro-American "satellite" thinking. This chance consists in the acceptance of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as having recognizing their independence, Georgia will receive at once some strategic prizes.
Sharp improvement of the relations with Russia. There are no authentic figures specifying the losses of Georgia from confrontation with the Russian Federation but, most likely, it is some percent of gross domestic product. At least, according to CIA report, the economy of Georgia has fallen 7 % in 2009. Georgia has lost the positions in the international investment ratings according to the results of war. Besides, not less then 10 % of gross domestic product swallowed up by military expenses. Many investors have simply refused the projects with Tbilisi. In particular Kazakhstan has refused the construction programme of terminals in Poti and Batumi because of the conflict of three eights «08.08.08», thus this country was the second Georgian investor after the USA. Now it is not necessary to sustain all these losses. Besides, most likely Georgia expects this or that "gift" from Russia. Probably, it will be the large-scale project connected with power.
Improvement of relations with neighbours. Armenia has appeared to be one of the victims of an aggressive policy of Saakashvili. This highland is cut off by land from Russia where its basic interests are concentrated. Namely that cutting off the territories of Georgia compels Yerevan to use the reserved rhetoric in an estimation of the Georgian initiatives. But it is impossible to forget about a powerful Armenian lobby which surely worked both in the USA and in Europe against the Georgian initiatives. Azerbaijan will certainly positively estimate the normalization of situation in Georgia and take risk of the South Caucasian gas pipeline and oil pipeline of Baku-Tbilisi-Dzheykhan in unstable Georgia. And Turkey which planned the building of the railway Kars (Turkey) — Akhalkalaki (Georgia) — Baku (Azerbaijan) and which has refused it because of war, probably, will return to the plans.
Simplification of relations with Europe. It is important to notice that Georgian-South Ossetian conflict became the first event which has so deeply hammered a wedge between the American and European strategy on the countries of the former USSR. The present soft but definite position of Europe of gradual non-admission of Georgia in the NATO is a payment for that awkward position in which Saakashvili has put the Europeans. Having recognizing two former territories as independent, the Georgian elite, firstly will exclude one of intensity points between Europe and Russia, secondly legitimate the recognition of Kosovo, thirdly will underline the productivity of peaceful aspirations of Europe on the Caucasus. It is not doubt that Europe will thank Georgia for this step.
Georgia will have a chance of reintegration of the lost territories. The geographical integrity of the region is the trump card of Georgia and it will allow to bring the Abkhazian, Ossetian and Georgian people together. Today the natural bases for trade, transit, uniform infrastructural projects between the countries of the Colchis valley and foothills are artificially blocked because of the Georgian president. His leaving and coming of sovereign elite to power will open the ways for returning of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to single economic space with Georgia which doesn't see the only purpose to keep the interests of the USA in region.
In other words, the Georgians should go in a way specified by Aristotle, namely through awakening the desire to be together in the independent people of the Caucasus. Otherwise the miracle won’t help even if Putin and Medvedev will visit the houses and persuade the Ossetians and Abhazians to return to the Georgian bosom, so they won't return anywhere. And a principle of territorial integrity here is nothing.

Viewed : 1778   Commented: 0

Author: Карновский Юрий Зиновьевич

Publication date : 08 February 2011 01:00

Source: The world and we

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