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Yanukovich will be “trampled down” by the Western Ukraine as soon as possible.

Mikhail Borisovich Pogrebinsky, the famous Ukrainian politologist and director of the Kiev Center of Political and Conflict Studies replies to the questions of the Internet portal “The World and We”.

- How, in your opinion, will Yanukovich’s desire to compromise with both Western and Eastern Ukraine affect his rating and the situation in the country? Is there any political "annihilation", when you would like to satisfy both yours and ours, but eventually anyone has nothing?

I think it is correct question. Firstly, it is necessary to say that Yanukovich confronts the difficult problem that had not been decided by anyone before him, although more or less quietly in this respect was at Kuchma time. The problem is that uniform Ukrainian politics, uniform approach to the history, the political preference, cultural community absent. And this is a very profound problem.
That attempts that Yanukovich takes in this direction, in my opinion they are ineffective. For example, he keeps in close circle Anna Herman, who grew up on “rebel songs”, on Bandera’s time, press secretary was picked up from Galicia, and it seems to him that it is some way of integration of Ukraine in order to feel himself in the capacity of the president of entire Ukraine. I think it is a bad decision. I would even say that it is not the solution. First of all, it creates the appearance that the problem is solved like, but for all intents and purposes there is not any progress toward the goal of the creation of sole community. And there is not even conscience how important this matter is.
It seems to him that if he signed the decree as to the composition of the Shevchenko commission, it will support the national unity. But in this committee a half of its members are the notorious Ukrainian nationalists and chauvinists and they hate Russia, who can vote by majority for the most awful idiot, a screwed-up mug like Vasil Shklyar, who wrote a such book that if you have children at home, it is desirable to hide it from them somewhere. In this book the weird fullness with any lies, absolute and full propaganda, moreover the one of the worst rate is. Why was it possible? Because the president Yanukovich has signed such composition. What was the problem to balance the composition? Indeed, there is a very simple thing like the public opinion polls that show that nearly 90 percent of the Ukrainian citizens are kind to Russia. And now, please, interview the members of the Shevchenko Committee as to their relation to Russia. It will turn out that 70 per cent of them treat Russia badly. Who forces you to find the compromises with these people in this way? Why does he act in such way? Because Yanukovich and this new team spit upon the humanitarian direction. How Kuchma didn’t also care for it, for example. I’m still surprised that they still hold Tabachnik in the composition of the government, indeed it is the headache for them as well, because of him the everyone takes them. It would seem, remove Tabachnik, but I believe that it is reasonable not to take this step, because if they remove Tabachnik the next one will be to remove Yanukovich directly. That’s why they understand that it is better, when Tabachnik will be messed.
Your question is correct. There is not any furtherance, but there is the attempt to be both on your side and our side, which cannot be crowned with success. It means that Yanukovich will never belong to the Western Ukraine and to so called Ukrainian humanitarian intelligentsia. He will never belong, because he is a stranger for them in all respects. And it means that they will hate him in any case. Simply, maybe, they will be more tolerant to him, but they will hate and upon first option they will tread him down. At the same time he doesn’t make any real step toward his electors, the Russian Ukraine, he declines the law about languages and many other things from his election pledges. Now it is understood that nobody is going to consider the law as to the Russian language. Yanukovich, for example, already demand from one minister during the session to speak Ukrainian. But we have both two-cultural and two-linguistic country. And the president, who came to power with the votes of the Russian speaking Ukraine, simply has to approve this bilingualism in the terms of legislation. It is his direct debt toward his electorate, but he doesn’t do it. And I can confirm once again that he will lose the confidence of his electorate. And it already is. There is real information, which shows a sharp decline in rating in the east that more than in the west.

- How do you estimate the current dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian relations? What are the main problems in this cooperation?

At the initial stage, finally, the natural wave of the enthusiasm had emerged as a result of liberation from anti-Russian reign in Ukraine. As apogee of this wave the signing of Kharkov agreements on prolongation of duration of stay of Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation and gas discounts were. But I had understood it then and now, that expectation for sweepy cooperation per different directions between our countries isn’t justified, because although the government of Ukraine isn’t anti-Russian, but the one thinks first of all of its state interests. And it will be difficult to negotiate with such government.

It is necessary to add to it that the Ukrainian diplomacy has poor experience. The government is only 20 years old that’s why there is no diplomatic tradition, which, of course, creates some obstacles when dealing with Russia. But Russia does not have clear, analytically substantiated standard as well, how to build relations with Ukraine – the one is only being built. That’s why I see nothing strange that there is some delay in moving forward – it is a searching for optimal model of cooperation. Besides per every direction of this cooperation the own rules are being developed and there is not any common rules. There is only common principle, which concerns the fact that the Ukrainian government isn’t anti-Russian, and the Russian one isn’t anti-Ukrainian.

It creates conditions to transfer these relations in the tideway of the economic tug-of-war. Nobody wants to be inferior to each other, and there is not any strange in it. Ukraine doesn’t want to set back, because it thinks that it could receive more for the things that the one provides. There is a problem from Russian side as well. Russia would like to regain its status as one of the most influential countries in the world, but the one isn’t ready to pay for this status. After all, if there was no gas discounts, which Ukraine had received for a reason, and for fleet’s stay, the gas price would be bigger than in European countries. Such situation could be justified upon anti-Russian government of Yushchenko. But when the situation had changed the absence of concessions in this issue sets wondering. Russia must say – yes you will pay less, but for this, please, support us in the geopolitical issues and per other directions, for example, upon UN voting.

Not a while ago, Ukraine already under the management of Yanukovich, has abstained at time of UN voting, on the question, which is very important for Russia – the resolution on prevention of propaganda of both fascist symbolic and Nazism. In other words, without receiving obvious preferences from Russia side, it showed, as if the one does not feel oneself obligated to it. I’m not saying that regardless to anything at all, it was necessary to vote for this resolution; as a matter of fact the memory as to the fascism is terrible for Ukraine. But, as of absence of the aligned format of cooperation on this question, the political reasons gained on the upper hand.

Ukraine still wants to get its thanks in Brussels and in Washington and at the same time does not make Russia angry. The process of the producing of some realistic format of cooperation is in progress. And here the Russian side can be also understood as well that says – do you once again want to maneuver between the West and Russia, in other words you would like to receive from both us and them, and with it you would like to pay nothing? This logic is understood for Russia. Russia, proposes to lower the gas prices, but only under condition that Ukraine will enter into the customs space. I think that it is absolutely normally, that there is the normal process of the development of the mutually acceptable solutions.

And in current situation it doesn’t matter who is exactly in command in Ukraine in the sense that the new Ukrainian authorities are not anti-Russian. If we have real democratic elections, then always in Ukraine the political authorities will be that are looking for good relations with Russia, because the most of the population think in this way. Democratically it should be at all times. That is why it doesn’t matter, –Yanukovich, Tigipko, may be even Yatsenyuk, who manage the country, they will have to build good, benevolent relations. But these benevolent relations should be filled with some rules on this tug of war, with the rules of the diplomatically mutual concessions per various issues. As far as there is not such experience, Ukraine does not have the diplomatic traditions, in the most complicated situations, as for example, in the relations with Russia it fails to work out the stable position.

My colleagues, the French and German politologists say: we can’t understand you – can you explain rationally how you will act in one or other situation? It’s unknown as the format is not set yet. So it is more or less understandable how the Poles will act in one or other situation, the Czechs as well, but how Ukraine will act is unknown. And it is of course the problem for both our partners and Russia. I can even understand some temper, expressed by the Russian leaders in relation to Yanukovich – we were supporting you, and you behave in this way. But, it should be understood that at this stage of development of the relations he does not have possibility to behave other way.

-- What are the main national threats to the national security that you see, taking into account the territorial claims of Romania against Ukraine, the announcements as to the same claims of the radical politicians in both Poland and Turkey?

The radical politicians always have their statements. I think that Romania, as a member of NATO, is under the control of Brussels. I don’t think that Ukraine has any actual external threats. The national security threat of Ukraine is inside of Ukraine. And it consists in that if we do not have people that are capable to find adequate responses to the calls, first of all, in financial-economic and social sphere, it will lead to the large-scale internal protestation events. Is the current team ready to find the adequate solutions? I’m in big doubt that the current authorities are capable to do it. And there is the threat in it. And the second threat – the split of Ukraine into two cultural communities that are approximately equal per their number. The absence of the ability to develop the integral target for the Ukrainian society and for the Ukrainian government, the unpreparedness to look for compromises it is another serious security threat.

That is why; the absence of the literate approach in the humanitarian politics creates conditions for the growth of the domestic policy tension that related to the separateness of Ukraine, as well as it interferes to develop the distinct interaction format with Russia and other countries. The relating to domestic policy stability as well as the creation distinct action format of Ukraine on the international scene depends on how fast and in which way this problem of balance finding between the different parts of the Ukrainian society will be solved.

Viewed : 3495   Commented: 1

Author: Михаил Михайлов

Publication date : 03 June 2011 12:46

Source: The world and we

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