Andrey Safonov: “The Eurasian integration for Transnistria will be difficult, but there are no two ways about it!”

The known Dniestr political scientist, the president of the Center of strategic researches and initiatives «Southeast» Andrey Safonov answers the questions of our portal of what course is most equitable to strategic interests of development of Transnistria:
— After the formation of the Eurasian Union some time already passed. There is an opportunity to look round, analyze a situation and to ask: what it gives to the Dniestr Moldavian Republic?
- Transnistria is initially aimed at rapprochement with Russia, at the Eurasian integration. It is a way to resist under pressure of those who tries to take away all former Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic under control of the European Union and, most likely, in structure of Romania. Now it is necessary to look, how PMR can be entered in the Eurasian integration model.
— And what is the main complexity here?
- In our not recognition. Even Abkhazia and South Ossetia recognized by Russia officially don’t consist in the Eurasian Union or in the Union State of Russia and Belarus. And we aren’t recognized even by Russia … Therefore, such model is necessary which will give the chance, formally without violating the rule in the Eurasian Union, actually to cooperate with its members; first of all, with Russia.
— Situation of PMR from the geographical point of view is more than difficult. How do you see the economic interaction on the Eurasian direction, as Ukraine is located between Transnistria and Russia?
- Unfortunately, there is a civil war in Ukraine which helped Transnistria during the Moldavian-Dniestr conflict of 1992 very much. «Hawks» of the USA, some politicians of EU, Romania, and also the pro-Romanian figures in Moldova came to a conclusion that hour of isolation of Transnistria in all areas came. In their opinion, it is necessary to achieve from Kiev blockade of Transnistria from the East, to suffocate economically, to force to agree with the European integration under the auspices of the present leadership of Moldova. Certainly, for PMR it is extremely important to keep export to the countries of the Eurasian Union for what Tiraspol will conduct negotiations with Ukraine. Obviously, Russia will make any diplomatic efforts for the solution of the matter.
But let’s prepare for the worst. We have an export-oriented economy, it is a lot of industrial enterprises, and it is equipment, technologies, personnel … If the export to the east would be make the difficulties, then it is necessary to reformat economy of PMR so that to combine the financial help from Russia and production on the Dniestr earth.
Will tell — is it partially the economic autarchy? Partially yes. But differently — elimination of Dniestr statehood, refusal of independence, withdrawal of Russian troops in the form of the remains of the 14th army and peacekeeping forces. Transnistria won’t go on that, proceeding from norms of common sense.
— On June 27 Moldova going in the direction of EU, signs agreements on association and on a trade zone with Brussels. How it can be reflected in a situation with Transnistria?
- Firstly, as the polls show, the majority of the population of Moldova doesn’t support the European integration, but supports the Eurasian integration. It is important as proves that the policy of normalization of the Moldavian-Dniestr relations in the people of Moldova has the good soil.
Secondly, of course, the pressure from the party both official Kishinev, the USA with EU which don’t wish to keep «the Eurasian enclave» between Moldova and Ukraine will remain on PMR.
Thirdly, we won’t lose hope that the compromise between «Westerners» and «"Easterners» will be found after all in Ukraine. If it is, it will be easier to export PMR goods to the countries of the Eurasian Union.
But in itself will come nothing. I think that the inhabitants of Transnistria haven’t to wait of the Eurasian weather at the Black Sea, and patiently work with Ukraine, on the facts proving that the inhabitants of Transnistria are the friends of the Ukrainian people, that PMR is a barrier against the Romanian danger for Ukraine.
— How do you see the interaction with such countries as Belarus and Kazakhstan which hardly recognize the independence of PMR in the near future?
- Generally there is a saying «never speak never!» Old, but true truth. Over time, in process of strengthening of the Eurasian Union, the official relations can’t exclude between PMR and the specified countries. Apparently, Russia could be as a link now. It works with inhabitants of Transnistria directly. And the development course between recognized Minsk and Astana and unrecognized Tiraspol coincides. That is, details can be fulfilled.
— Does the danger to PMR increase in connection with the war in Ukraine?
- Transnistria, certainly, has only warm feelings to the people of Ukraine and, of course, there is no any hostility. We will hope that the events won’t concern PMR borders. It would be desirable to express confidence, as war in Ukraine will come to the end soon, but meanwhile we won’t fall into impetuous optimism. The worst is another. In Moldova the politicians who act whether from anti-Dniestr position or hopes to the west in the person of the USA or NATO became more active.
For example, the leader of the pro-Romanian Liberal Party Mihai Ghimpu, according to quotes from mass media, believes that after «situation clearings in east region — Donetsk, Slavyansk, Lugansk — Ukraine will help us to solve the Dniestr problem. Before they didn’t want or couldn’t, or were afraid, but now understood that it is a serious microbe of instability which should be whether cured or destroyed». And the Minister of Defence of Moldova Valery Troyenko told the following in one of telecasts: «The block of NATO became the guarantor of stability and protection of interests of the small states. There is no other force, capable to resist to Russia».
The part of experts considers that attempts to crush PMR by means of NATO and Romania armies are possible. Certainly, it isn’t predetermined. Diplomats have to play a role and prevent any power succession of events. But also gunpowder should be held dry, strengthening both Dniestr armed forces, and the Russian armies in Transnistria.
However, we will recognize that Moldova will carefully weigh: is it necessary to go towards Brussels and Bucharest or it is better to remain in that space where the country between two rivers Prut and Dniestr always was more quietly, more steadily and more safely — in space of the former Soviet Union? !
— Do the concrete attempts make now from PMR to be integrated into space of the Eurasian and Customs Unions?
- Certainly, after all only declarations are not enough here. For example, on June 11 the deputies of the Supreme Council of PMR adopted in the first reading the bill providing introduction in the Customs Code of Transnistria the provisions, acting in the countries of the Customs Union. There is the rapprochement of legislative bases of PMR and the Russian Federation. Yes, the Eurasian way of Transnistria will be difficult, but who said that will be easy?
As for PMR youth, now politicians of Moldova and the West try to change, certainly, the primary orientation of young inhabitants of Transnistria to Russia. The ultimate goal of such work is obvious: it is anti-Dniestr putsch with the requirement of refusal of independence of PMR. There is also other direction of such work: to hammer a wedge between young people of the Russian and Ukrainian origin, to test a cliche for them allegedly of the came «final gap between Russia and Ukraine». However, Dniestr guys see that in Moldova there are the politicians in power, many of whom pursue the nationalist policy, including, directed on rapprochement with Romania. Therefore hardly all these diligence will be crowned with success. And still, if the authorities of PMR cease to resist effectively to all these risks and threats, all is possible. It is just necessary to remember that information war is the fight which doesn’t stop for a minute!
In general, I think that real integration in the former USSR is possible on a way of daily draft work on rapprochement of the countries and the people. If this work manages to be made qualitatively, so the new Union will be sound and strong — as Siberia!