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The «politicians» having the armies of fighters possess the real power in Ukraine and violence escalation in the Southeast — provocation under the leadership of the USA with the purpose to compel Russia to enter armies. The political scientist, the president of the Center of System Analysis and Forecasting Rostislav Vladimirovich Ishchenko answers the question of Internet portal «The world and we».


- How the alignment of forces in Ukraine will change in connection with Petro Poroshenko’s election? Is he «office» figure for realization of interests of the main Ukrainian oligarchs and the instructions arriving from the USA?


The alignment of forces in Ukraine has to excite nobody today because Americans not for this purpose put billion dollars and huge efforts in a coup d’etat that then what-that pawn in Ukraine solved how to behave himself. The ambassador of the USA Payett works for the present moment as real president of Ukraine. He broadcasts indications of State Department, and this is the only person in Ukraine who makes any decisions — all others simply carry out them, including any president of Ukraine. Poroshenko won a casting against Tymoshenko simply because he was more operated, predictable and therefore that from the middle of time of existence of the Maidan the aspiration of the majority of the population to settlement and stabilization was visible. Tymoshenko associated with war, and Poroshenko with the peace. Therefore Americans relied on him.
In Ukraine now there are only two forces which try to conduct independent game, certainly, within the legal. One of them is Igor Kolomoysky who created principality in the middle of Ukraine, the army. He considers that he has to offer even in negotiations with State Department. These are the territories of the Central Ukraine — the Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye and Odessa areas which he controls. Thus, controlling Odessa region, he controls both areas satellites — Kherson and Nikolaev. He tries to put under the control Donetsk and Lugansk areas with use of the armed force. Not incidentally he spoke about possibility of holding a referendum about their accession to the Dnepropetrovsk area. Actually, Kolomoysky seeks to control all southeast industrial pool.
And it is clear that if the junta will win civil war, not Poroshenko, but Kolomoysky will control Donetsk and Lugansk. He considers that thus he becomes if not equal then the interesting negotiator for the USA — control demonstration over territories he achieves the accounting of its interests. Possibly, his interests can be considered but if Americans decide that his inquiry is too big or that Kolomoysky isn’t too interesting to them, the issue will be resolved by them on a method — «one sniper and Putin is guilty». Thus, Kolomoysky’s «problem» can be solved, and there would be the person who will control his «principality» and armed forces.
The similar situation develops in the Western Ukraine where the All-Ukrainian Union «Svoboda» delayed all the forces and fighters. There is information that even «Right Sector» actively passes into «Svoboda» militant groups. From the point of view of the West Ukrainian fighters after Muzychko was killed and nobody reacted, they fairly counted the leaders impotent. Thus Tyahnybok has a visibility of a full order. And Tyahnybok’s territorial «principality» as a part of at least three areas which are controlled by «Svoboda» is created and maybe 8 areas if they manage to put under the control everything to the line of Zbruch and it is quite possible.
And it is the argument on a negotiating table too. And, it is stronger argument than at Kolomoysky. Despite that Kolomoysky has more money, Tyahnybok has a population support because his slogans and actions coincide with mentality of inhabitants of the Western Ukraine, for whom Bandera is the hero, Hitler is the liberator. It is necessary to reckon with him in much bigger degree though it doesn’t mean that for the USA Tyahnybok is a star of the first magnitude and someone will agree with it. Possibly, Tyahnybok understands, how many it is possible to ask and where it isn’t necessary to be put any more. Therefore it is possible to be afraid for Oleg Yaroslavovich less from all Ukrainian politicians. He has every chance to escape in this slaughter.
Also it is all Ukrainian political deal. Because actually it is absolutely not important who is the president in Kiev — Poroshenko, Turchynov, Yatsenyuk or someone else. It is a nominal figure who solves nothing who has no real support on fighters. Also it becomes deliberately, for bigger dependence on the USA.
Theoretically Yarosh or Paruby as the same as the president Poroshenko can be appointed and would receive 56% of votes. Each of them has the fighting organization. But Poroshenko who in general doesn’t have anything, except the confectionery, «killed» shipbuilding plant «Lenin Smithy», the 5th channel and production of Bogdan buses was deliberately appointed. He is one of the most dependent Ukrainian politicians.
Just the same is dependent Yatsenyuk who doesn’t have anything. And if the USA stops supporting them tomorrow, fighters will come at once and will shoot them directly in courtyard. In this case politicians who don’t have anything are involved until the State Department speaks: «look at these talents!» Such people also will be appointed today in Ukraine to key posts.


— What role in this situation is played by Tymoshenko? Will she openly resist to Poroshenko?


Tymoshenko always went a bull rates. In the Ukrainian policy she won because her opponents weren’t ready to increase so highly a rate as it lifted Tymoshenko. But already there was her loss in 2010 when the USA acknowledged Yanukovych’s victory, and Tymoshenko increased a rate and declared that doesn’t recognize. And right there all her supporters declared — we didn’t buy the ticket for war therefore, Yulya, go to prison, and we will work here in parliament. The same occurred now. Tymoshenko was ready to understand the rates and even to organize civil war against Poroshenko, but she didn’t have own resource. Now she will wait.
Poroshenko has a period of validity of his mandate at most 2−3 months, and then because the heap of a negative will fall to him, it is possible the USA will want to change him. Tymoshenko expects «to jump out» on it, but Yulia Vladimirovna is too unpredictable politician and therefore too charismatic. Her unpredictability will always rely on serious populist rhetoric which will be pleasant to masses. And, thus, she will rely on support of considerable part of the population. It isn’t necessary to the USA. Therefore even in case Poroshenko will be objectionable, but civil war won’t end yet and the international consensus how Ukraine will look after this war won’t be reached yet, Tymoshenko doesn’t become a candidate from the USA all the same. They will find someone another — though Turchynov or Yatsenyuk.
She hasn’t enough chances, but she will continue to play, will try to create own military opportunities, to create the fighting groups and, relying on this armed force, will threaten with destabilization in Kiev in order that her interests too considered and to break through on senior positions. But her time is limited because existence of Ukraine is limited to time from 3 months to one year, at most. During this time Tymoshenko hasn’t enough chances to gather enough points.
Moreover, unlike Tymoshenko and Poroshenko both Washington, and Brussels, and Moscow already know that it is already «braided sandals» to Ukraine and it doesn’t make sense therefore to find out who will be the most important head. It makes sense to conduct negotiations what will be after Ukraine, instead of about the one who and what will direct there.


— What impact does Rinat Akhmetov have on current situation?


Rinat Akhmetov’s position interests nobody because he convinced in due time the Ukrainian journalists that, allegedly, he is the owner if not all Ukraine, but Donets Basin precisely. And now it became clear that it is a lie. Donets Basin works in own mode, and Rinat Akhmetov — in own. Thus Akhmetov’s mode initially is losing because at it, as well as all representatives of PR, a political asset is in Kiev — their representation is in the Verkhovna Rada. In the Southeast after Yanukovych’s board and after revolution when deputies of PR came to Rada and regularly voted for all laws of junta, they lost any trust.
And here Rinat Akhmetov’s economic assets are in the Southeast.
Registration, money — all this is abroad. But plants are exactly there. Akhmetov, of course, is interested in preservation of Ukraine taking into account that resistance in the Southeast passes not only under anti-fascist, but also under anti-oligarchic slogans, and the Kiev government just tries to keep the oligarchic republic.
When he had to make a final choice, made it in favor of Kiev and power suppression of the Southeast. But for «Kiev» he is not own any more.
If they win, they «expropriate» him too. Not because they can’t agree with him but because doesn’t suffice any more on all, and, respectively, his property has to go to advantage of other worthy people. Perhaps, something is left «on poverty», but not influence and not milliard assets.
For the Southeast he isn’t own any more. In the USA he especially isn’t necessary to somebody. For Russia he is not necessary because he made the anti-Russian choice. He has neither internal support, nor external support. Therefore now the best way for Akhmetov is to sell quicker the assets and to be evacuated to London where he has an apartment worth 140 million dollars.


— Bloody events in Donetsk and Odessa, growth of activity of anti-terrorist operation — are all the attempts to provoke Russia to enter armies?


The junta is completely controlled by the USA. They were interested in that Russia entered the armies. If to track their actions from the very beginning, the USA claimed that is against input of the Russian armies but if they come, they won’t be at war for Ukraine, allegedly, and especially it emphasized. They promised to enter sanctions, to protest, but not to be at war. Thus, they tried to provoke introduction of armies.
Further the USA was guided by Putin’s statements. He declared that armies will be entered if shoot at civilians — and right there started shooting at common inhabitants. But the promised reaction didn’t happen. They had an assumption that it isn’t enough corpses, they began to do it more increasing. They go by quite understood principle that at any stage quantity of corpses and action of junta become such that Putin will be able to enter, without having undermined the positions in Russia.
Meanwhile Putin acts in a mode of civil war. You wage civil war and we wage civil war. Poroshenko is at you — Pushilin, Strelkov and others are at us. We aren’t present there — they are at war, and their weapon is from warehouses of the Ukrainian army. If they have attack of planes, they will tell that seized the airfield, here are the attack planes and they have own pilots. Therefore war in Ukraine is not simply the civil war — it is the conflict of Russia and the USA which while is conducted in such format.
It is clear that if the junta will be rather strong to suppress resistance in Donets Basin and already the issue can’t be resolved by volunteers, Russia will have no other exit, except introduction of troops. While such succession of events is undesirable. But every day, every week EU position changes, the picture in world mass media changes. At any stage input of the Russian armies can be not such critical as it would be 2 months ago. Then it was unambiguously clear that EU will rear, a rupture of the relations will be, all prospects will be buried.
Now it isn’t so unambiguous any more, and through any time it will be already absolutely ambiguous. It is quite possible that Europeans will incline to big contacts with Russia especially as elections in European Parliament already passed, its structure exchanged and it is clear that will be both other European Commission, and other negotiations.
Besides, «sword of Damocles» hangs over EU — if the civil war proceeds, gas won’t reach EU in the winter. And these issues should be resolved already now — by the end of summer they have to be solved. The pumping gas in gas storages of Ukraine isn’t solved only by signing of papers during negotiations — still it is necessary to deliver it on pipes. And technically it is the process which lasts for months.
Therefore at present the USA can intensify the process further. But if they give junta command to wipe out Slavyansk by the volleys of jet artillery, it is already sufficient picture in order that the position of the European Union wasn’t such unambiguous. We enter armies not because we want very much — we long suffered. But here the hundred-thousandth city is destroyed — how many still is it possible to suffer?
Thus the picture about junta crimes already appears in world mass media. And not only European, but also the American mass media give far not unambiguous comments. Therefore if sharply to intensify a situation — it is possible to risk, but it isn’t known what will occur. If to go step by step as the USA did— 5, 10, 100, 200 corpses and so on, it is quite possible that the window of opportunities for the USA will be closed.
Now there is a shaky balance when within big geopolitical game unclear it is not clear whether the movement of a pawn will bring a prize to one or another, and the risk is too great. It is possible to provoke Russia to introduction of armies. Total cleaning is necessary for this purpose and with use of all means and then Russia will be compelled to enter armies because differently Putin will simply lose Russia.
But reaction of Europe and now war goes not only for Ukraine, but also for Europe, can be unpredictable and can quite be anti-American. And it becomes more and more probable every day. But in that case, why to provoke such conflict and introduction of the Russian armies?
Therefore now there was an unstable balance. Not absolutely clear, how the events will develop exactly but while they potentially go to option of achievement of the arrangement of Russia and EU about joint settlement in Ukraine, introduction the Russian armies on the one hand and EU on the other side. Dalee’s armies control zones, lines of demarcation are established, fighting groups disarm and are put outside brackets of the USA which then lose influence on the conflict.
It is the most probable that after that Ukraine won’t remain as the uniform state. It can become the group of the states, and can be attached by different territories to the different states that is more probable. It is Russia still can explain somehow that friendly federal Ukraine which has entered the Customs Union, therefore this certain state is created there. And here it will be very difficult to Hungarians and Poles to explain to the population why they occupied the territories belonging to them till 1939 and then left from there.
But everything can occur more drama image. Because in Ukraine there is a huge number of the armed people now, including frankly fascist fighters who are ready to be at war further. And the USA are still interested in that this conflict proceeded, that it continued to destabilize Russia and E. U. Therefore they can run risks of an intensification of war and risk of provocation of introduction of the Russian armies under the threat of genocide in Donetsk and Lugansk areas.

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Author: Mikhail Mikhaylov

Publication date : 27 June 2014 01:00

Source: The world and we

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