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The only chance for junta is to retreat for Dniepr

The political scientist, the president of the Centre of system analysis and forecasting Rostislav Vladimirovich Ishchenko answers the questions of the Internet portal «The world and we» about the prospects of development of counterattack of Novorossiya army.
— How far and in what terms the DNR army counterattack can proceed?
Counterattack began and ended today, by and large. As of today taking into account the territories which are already occupied with a militia, maximum what they can do is to control these territories and gradually to move ahead by means of prospecting and diversionary groups.
Because they are faced by a complex challenge — they should control the communications, to leave garrisons in the occupied cities, to block and continue to destroy the blocked groups of armies of junta and thus to continue the attack. They obviously don’t have forces on it. Because even by the most optimistic estimates published by a militia, their armies total from 25 thousand to 33 thousand people.
It is enough to win a victory on fronts, but it isn’t enough to control the territory. Therefore taking into account the attack depth, it already practically exhausted the opportunities. At most that the militia can make is to record the victories in the south, having taken already blocked Mariupol. And partially to continue the attack in the north in order to remove a front line from Donetsk and Lugansk.
Thus, the maximum advance of this attack will be limited, most likely, to the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk areas. All the same the operational pause, even taking into account just signed agreement on a truce is necessary to them. Theoretically this attack can last even without pause but only in case that there are performances against Kiev in Kharkov, Odessa, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Kherson and Nikolaev now. If these performances are rather serious and rather well provided, the militia should give them a hand only. Then they will receive additional mobilization potential and will be able to promote even to the line of Dniepr.
But if to lean only on resources of Donetsk and Lugansk areas, then now there will be an operational pause — rather short, 2−3 weeks. Last time the militia needed just 2−3 weeks to increase the forces. And now during this term taking into account the taken equipment taking into account that the army of Kiev is really crushed, they need this time to increase the number and to move further.
Then, certainly, after occupation of Kharkov, Odessa, Zaporozhye the militia will have new mobilization resources, and then Kiev will have no chances at all. Actually, they have no them today. But then they won’t be even theoretically, and the militia can quietly come up to Lviv. But as of today it is necessary to expect an operational pause, accumulation of forces and the following attack in an interval between the end of September and the middle of October.
—Do the actions possible from junta on renewal of attack to DNR and LNR during this pause?
They won’t be able to resume attack because already lost considerable part of really motivated people. Mobilization is broken — nobody wants to go to be at war more. All want to win a victory, but nobody wants to be at war. Besides the balance of forces in equipment approximately levelled. If earlier the junta had superiority in tanks, aircraft, artilleries, so now a ratio in artillery is already 1:1, in tanks 1:2. The aircraft left the sky because it is simply forced down.
Now forces were levelled, but the militia is considerably more motivated. Therefore even at equality of forces if the militia had enough resources to control occupied territories, it would be possible to come though to Lviv and it wouldn’t stop. Theoretically, the junta can’t begin almost new attack — they have no forces for this purpose. The best that they could make is to try to consolidate all the divisions, to create any serious front line across Dniepr and Desna and to try to defend. It is a maximum that they can make — to try to force to bleed profusely a militia and after that to go to any arrangements on territories.
But from the point of view of the internally politicians, that the junta directs all forces to «fight for integrity of Ukraine», that person, who will go for negotiations and agreement, for recognition of that at least two areas won’t be as a part of Ukraine, this person is a political corpse.
Therefore the junta has no other options, except how to be at war to the bitter end. Only not junta will have a victorious end, but militia.
— What is the prospect of junta preservation as that, considering the mass actions against it in Kiev?
There are no prospects because in order that the junta remained, it should be contained. But nobody will support it. The USA and all other sponsors of junta are interested in that it disappeared. The only thing that disturbs them is how to leave from there with a beautiful face as «to pull out a tail from there» that it didn’t pinch. Therefore the matter is about not keeping a mode in Kiev, but handing over it so that sponsors remained «at own».
—Do you consider the probability of the third Maidan. And if it is who can become his sponsors?
The third Maidan can’t be as that. The first Maidan was really grass-roots movement where some tens of thousands of people participated. The second Maidan is only about ten thousand people, from whom the half is Nazi fighters, and another half is outcasts. The third Maidan will be simple arrival of the armed people who will kill Poroshenko and will put real «Hitlerite» instead of him. Because he isn’t the real Hitler, but the real one is necessary to Nazis. It won’t be the Maidan, it will be the next revolution.
—Have the geopolitical situation round Ukraine changed?
This situation didn’t change. Whatever statements sounded, actually Ukrainian crisis is part of the general global crisis, part of global opposition of the USA and Russia. Russia already became the second super state, the USA try to win back, to remain the only super state. Therefore there was a game in Afghanistan, Georgia, Syria and now in Ukraine for them. Therefore the events in Ukraine are the opposition of the USA and Russia. All the rest it is only the small conflicts.

Viewed : 718   Commented: 0

Author: Mikhail Mikhaylov

Publication date : 18 September 2014 18:36

Source: The world and we

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