Kazbek Beysebayev: “In Kazakhstan all are excited by a question: what will be tomorrow?”

One of the most known bloggers of Kazakhstan is today in the recent past the high-ranking diplomat Kazbek Beysebayev. He writes on the hottest topics therefore many are interested in his expert assessment.

Kazbek Beysebayev graduated from Almaty Pedagogical Institute of Foreign Languages, Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the USSR and courses of Diplomatic academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. In the anti-nuclear movement “Nevada - Semey” and in the Union of theatrical figures of Kazakhstan he was responsible for international relations. From 1990 till 2008 he worked in the system of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, in embassies in France and Switzerland. From 2008 till June, 2012 was engaged in the Kazakhstan-French economic cooperation.

We asked the expert to comment on information which has appeared in different sources that the health of two leaders of neighbouring states worsened: Nursultan Nazarbayev and Islam Karimov:

- About Nursultan Nazarbayevav's health lately there were articles in a number of mass media, and not in the different countries, there is an active discussion in Internet. How society reacts to this information which, will underline, has informal character?

- Really, there are articles, there are hearings … But here Nursultan Abishevich just was shown on television and he, thank God, is live and healthy! As they say, looks full of strength and energy. It is known that last year the president passed medical examination and it was shown too.

Certainly, the state of health of the president excites the inhabitants of any country, but in relation to Kazakhstan I want to tell about what: people much more are excited by a problem of continuity of the power. We have a power personified, but it doesn't mean that such phenomenon needs to be considered surely in negative aspect. Nursultan Nazarbayev is not simply the president; but actually the guarantor of the constitution.

- And he has special status: First President …

- Nazarbayev is perceived by the people as the Power! This person is the guarantor of development of the republic today and tomorrow. He has created the system of the power which in Kazakhstan functions today and, notice, not badly functions! The operating system of the power is constructed by Nursultan Abishevich and can function only at its founder and nobody else.

Here therefore people also have fears: and what will be then?! Various rumours are spread by the anti-Russian, nationalist circles, and it can't but cause reasonable alarm.

- That is, there is a reasonable question: and who is the successor?

- Nursultan Abishevich didn't designate the successor. There are different versions concerning why he made so. But as soon as there were hearings about any person who could be considered in such quality as at once the plums of negative information began. So there is no successor, really…

My opinion consists that other person can't be simply entered in this system of the personified power. It isn't enough to possess the appropriate political authority which are stated in the relevant laws – it is necessary to have unshakable and indisputable authority still. And now even all management together taken by such authority as the president Nazarbayev, simply doesn't possess.

- Obviously, Nursultan Nazarbayev doesn't consider necessary to force an event …

- We had an adviser for political affairs E.Ertysbayev who already was, who told two years ago that on the top there is an understanding of that the power system in the republic needs to be changed somehow. It is necessary to introduce any elements of real parliamentarism, for example. It is difficult to me to tell that it already becomes.

We had a parliament with one party, now three parties are presented in it. But all perfectly understand that two parties were simply allowed in parliament, and they actually aren't opposition - it is shown by the results of votes. It isn't audible any criticism from them, and they practically differ nothing from “Nour Otan” ruling party.

- It is obvious that we deal with that it is possible to call Nazarbayev's era. Whatever this era was, but sooner or later it will end too. What will come instead of it is a big question …

- There is such understanding, and not only at expert community. Various polls were carried out, questions that people excites, what they think of the future were set. So, the problem of lack of the mechanism of continuity of the power is on one of the first places! Certainly, questions on a number of the personnel were set also: who has the chances, who could …

But you understand that openly any politician in Kazakhstan doesn't speak today about it for one simple reason: the president Nazarbayev told and brought information to society through the adviser that he will run for presidency of Kazakhstan again in 2016.

- Does the subject of a family of the president rise? In the sense that the daughter Dariga, who is very noticeable deputy in parliament can continue, for example, the business of the father?

- If a few years ago Nursultan Abishevich told about it or hinted somehow, there would be, probably, other situation. People would get used to it … But, you understand, today there is no big sense in it: whether there will be it the family member or someone from an environment of the president Nazarbayev – all of them yield to the incumbent president without an exception!

After it all of them are approximately equal therefore the problem consists not in search of the person, but in real division of imperious functions. The power which has everything now has to reflect on it. It is the same as in a family: the inheritance after all needs to be divided in advance that then everything was normal.

- It is interesting that the similar situation develops in Uzbekistan. They discuss the health of the president Islam Karimov too. Does this subject cause interest in Kazakhstan?

- It should be noted that the situation in two neighbouring countries nevertheless differs. Though write, as there are authoritative regimes, but in Kazakhstan there are the oppositional parties and oppositional newspapers are issued that can't be observed in Uzbekistan. But it is necessary to notice that our neighbours have other mentality – the east one.

Islam Karimov in Uzbekistan created, of course, the authoritative power, but this power, simpler if to tell, keeps an order in the country. We had 17 million people20 years ago – so much we have today, but in Uzbekistan there were 19 million and became 30! Uzbekistan as though closes itself Kazakhstan – the stable board of Islam Abduganievich ensures the safety of the southern borders of our republics.

If to tell directly, such situation suits Kazakhstan. The Uzbek army is an essential factor on the number and on equipment. According to many indicators it is considered by the experts as the strongest in the region. Uzbekistan is such buffer zone for us, preserving against direct influence of Talibs and radical Islamists who located in Afghanistan. And in the Uzbekistan Islam is put under rigid control of the state. It is necessary to recognize that Karimov, working authoritatively, and sometimes and rigidly as it was in Andizhan, constrained the general situation in the region of Central Asia from destabilization. Concerning Kazakhstan, stable Uzbekistan, to be exact, Islam Karimov's stable board, serves as the guarantor of safety on our southern borders.

But there is the same problem in Uzbekistan– there is no mechanism of continuity of the power. And judging by that polemic between the daughter of the president Karimov Gulnara and one of influential Deputy Prime Ministers, heat is absolutely another there. We have not such– in Kazakhstan nobody openly is at war. In any case via the twitter …

We see that any movement began, and we, of course, turn on this attention as for us stable Uzbekistan is very important. And after all there are a lot of serious events ahead which will influence a situation in our countries.

Let's take, for example, a situation with withdrawal of American troops from the territory of Afghanistan. Intervention of the USA which after withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan would like to be fixed in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia is quite possible. In general, the situation in Central Asia is difficult therefore we in Kazakhstan have fears that well-known “instability arch” can come nearer to our borders.

Today everything is good, but what will be tomorrow? This question excites all, but today there is no definite answer! The answer in the sense that in 2016 we will have the presidential elections, doesn't arrange us…