Andrey Safronov: “Having presiding in OSCE, Ukraine should maneuver actively”

The president of Association of independent political scientists of Transnistria Andrey Safonov told about what in his opinion becomes the policy of Ukraine concerning Moldova and Transnistria during the period when it will begin to preside in OSCE:

- The Ukrainian diplomacy, as well as the Ukrainian state as a whole, will actively maneuver in 2013. On the one hand, the team of the president Victor Yanukovych and the government of prime minister Nikolay Azarov will be interested in the benevolent relations with Moscow against strengthening of national radical after parliamentary elections in Ukraine (Svoboda party, in particular). On the other hand, the pressure of the West upon Kiev as the Ukrainian management declares a course on the European integration will amplify also. For example, in EU very nervously react to V. Yanukovych's words that Ukraine can adapt some laws according to requirements of the Customs Union including Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

How it will be reflected in the Moldavian-Trans-Dniestr affairs? Certainly, Ukraine will declare the principle of territorial integrity of Moldova and, probably, will make a series of statements for need of transition to definition of concrete model of the status of Transnistria as a part of Moldova. It will be intended for EU and the USA. It isn't excluded that in general Kiev will support the idea about demilitarization of Transnistria and, besides, a conflict safety zone, and also the withdrawl of the remains of the 14th army from PMR. The matter is that these statements don't oblige somebody to do something as shows the 22 years' experiment of negotiations on settlement of the Moldavian-Trans-Dniestr conflict.

At the same time Kiev perfectly understands that the weakening of PMR and deepening of disagreements between Ukraine and Russia will inure to advantage of Romania and to its Kishinev younger partners from ruling “Alliance for the European integration”. After all, as it is known, a maximum programme of Bucharest is the inclusion in structure of Romania of all former MSSR (i.e. Moldova, Gagauzia and PMR) and also the Ukrainian territories represented by the Southern Bessarabia, Northern Bukovina, Maykan's island on Danube, etc.). Let's remember how a few years ago Romania, the member of EU and NATO, took a huge zone of the Black Sea shelf near the Zmeiny Island with gas fields, having the West influence in the UN International Court of Justice. So Ukraine is under continuous threat of the Romanian expansion.

Conclusion: Ukraine will behave rather carefully and will maneuver. It hardly will put forward any radical plan of settlement as it will block either Kishinev, or Tiraspol, relying on the allies in the 5+2 format. And Victor Yushchenko's plan offered in 2005, Kishinev torpedoed about what Kiev didn't forget.

I assume that the Ukrainian diplomacy will place emphasis on strengthening of measures of trust between the parties and on the solution of private, specific questions (economy, the social sphere, humanitarian cooperation, etc.). In this case Kiev will be able to offer something accepted for Tiraspol and Kishinev, and also to float between the Russian Scylla and the western Charybdis, having acquired the points.

Main thing: not to allow to win to the general enemy – Romania. For this purpose, it is reasonable to Moscow and Tiraspol constantly to carry on dialogue with Ukraine and to look for a common ground.