Great Silk Road-2: what is our interest?

In the fall of last year China declared the project of revival of the Great Silk Road. The known political scientist Andrey Ryabov reflects on what represents this ambitious project properly, how Russia should treat it:

- For the last months there were the new calls connected with modernization projects going from the different parties. The Chinese project of revival of the Great Silk Road is closer to Siberia. The key role in it is played by the railroad, but it isn’t reduced only to it by one. It would be desirable to tell about some details which allow to understand the essence of this call.

The project of revival of the Great Silk Road was declared by the Chinese President Xi Jinping during the visit to the capital of Kazakhstan Astana in the fall of 2013. The place for the announcement of it was chosen rather interesting, after all Kazakhstan is the member of the Customs Union and supports the development of the Eurasian integration.

What is the feature of the project offered by China? The railroad has to go parallel to the Trans-Siberian Railway through some republics of Central Asia, finally return on the territory of Russia and Ukraine and to reach the ports of the Black and Baltic seas. The project presentation already took place in Shanghai.

All the matter is that it is not simply the project, but the huge project which assumes a reconstruction and creation of a number of traditional industries round the railroad. Including the characteristic processing for Central Asia. That is, it is a question of creation of new workplaces.

And here we approach to a question of migration of a manpower from the region to Russia: whether we can present today such situation, that when the project will start being implemented on full force, we won’t receive a manpower or we will receive significantly less, than it is necessary?! It is necessary to think of it already today.

It is necessary to tell that it is extremely significant project for foreign policy of China. Before the Chinese foreign policy in relation to Third World countries was simple — it consisted in especially utilitarian approach. Lay the pipes — take away the raw materials — pay for it … So it was both in Africa and in Latin America. But today we see not simply the project of transfer of money for raw materials to local elite — it is the modernization project.

Russia should react to it somehow. The question how? It isn’t so simple to try to offer something alternative. Partnership? It is necessary to think of it already now, instead of when the project will earn on full capacity in some years.

When the project was submitted, it was made so that to show that it won’t lead to replacement any of the states from Central Asia, or from any associations. And not incidentally Chinese leader started talking about revival of the Great Silk Road in Astana — to let know that it isn’t directed against Russia and Kazakhstan. Any project of the modern world is under construction on the principle of advantage for all participants.

And the sense consists in that the Russian companies, already having now studied possibilities of this project, would try to take there any place. It is possible to say haughtily that something doesn’t arrange there, but then in some years we won’t be there simply …

Nobody will squeeze out somebody from the Customs Union, but progressiveness and effectiveness of this project at such approach will gradually go on the descending line and to be transformed to what is the CIS today. The CIS exists, but actually there is no real life there— one only symbolic aspect.

Therefore it is necessary to find the interest in this project, without being fenced off from it by a great Central Asian wall. And one more aspect — we need to create the competitors along the Trans-Siberian Railway without fail. There is no other way simply! Attempt of confrontation is senseless and it is necessary to nobody — Russia too. And here participation in the international project plus parallel development of the regions is a way for Russia. It is necessary to refuse geopolitical schemes of the XIX century and to look for answers to questions in problems of modern development. In the modern world the one who is closed that loses!