Whether there will be a war in the Far East?

We continue to acquaint you with an estimation of a today's situation in the country and the world which was given by a known analyst Sergey Pereslegin. This time he reflects on the possibility of the beginning of a confrontation in the Far East. And Pereslegin has acted for the first time for a long time with this forecast …

- The situation in the Far East is extremely interesting. The status quo in Europe has been defined at the very least by the Potsdam peace agreement and then by the Helsinki meeting of 1975 year which has accepted the resolution on indestructibility of the European borders. At once I will notice in brackets that it is possible easily to forget about that case after the disintegration of Yugoslavia and NATO aggression in general and to consider that Europe is in a zone of the permanent military conflict.

And there is no even that in the Far East. Nobody concluded and signed the agreement on indestructibility of borders in Asia. There isn’t the peace treaty between Soviet Union and Japan – there is a decision on an armistice. That is not absolutely the same...

Everyone has the territorial claims to everybody in the Far East. China has in a lesser degree as that it asks, is small enough territories, but Japan has in a greater degree. It has the certain rights: political, historical and economic rights on archipelago of Ryukyu-Nansei which is now sufficiently the American protectorate, rights on the Kuril Islands and on all Kuril ridge, but not just four islands, to Sakhalin, all Korea, Taiwan and Manchuria. Agree that it is a lot of! Also we will notice that Japan has lost all this territory after the lost war in which doesn't consider itself guilty.

Soviet Union denounced the nonaggression pact with Japan and has received the half of-Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. But the denouncement was categorically in the interests of Japan – everybody understands it who has analyzed war. Therefore the Japanese have the legal and historical bases to consider that they have managed incorrectly with them: have broken the nonaggression pact, have begun the war and taken away the territory. There is no the slightest doubts for me that the wars are inevitable in the Far East.

The region extremely quickly economically grows and borders are made here absolutely arbitrarily. For example, nobody will explain to you how the border between China and Korea passes actually! And two Koreas are divided under the formal agreement of the USSR and the USA on 38th parallel: how they have made, so it was! And the status of Taiwan is absolutely mysterious in general. China considers it as own territory, Japan – its own and Taiwan believes itself as the independent and significant state. Having considering the economic importance of these territories, the war is possible to a greater or lesser degree. The other question is what form it will accept? Whether there will be the hot war, cold or any else? Now it is premature to speak about it as the different variants are possible.

Only in XIX century it was seriously said that the war is made for territory and resources. But the war is made absolutely for other reasons: it allows to solve the internal problems! Japan now has the growing old population and the strongest contradiction between youth and old men. It is quite clear: there is the Japanese system of lifelong hiring and system when the young man can't receive a post of the senior while he hasn't retired or go to the higher post... There is a situation, when to the person is already 50 years old but he is the junior expert; but if the person is 20 years old, so there is nothing to hope. The tension between the youth and seniors all over the world is very strong, but in Japan it is much stronger, no matter where! Adding to that, they have declared the horrible war of samurai passionarity there after the war. And when there is such war, the social pressure raises sharply. And the war was necessary for Japan for solving of the following problems: The first is the passionarity leak, the second is a problem solution with especially vigorous youth, the third is the stimulus reception to development.

Notice what is important at the same time! If you win, you receive the territory, send the passionarite youth there; there are new positions and workplaces for them. And if you completely lose, then you will have a weight of possibilities to begin the new development. The Japanese have perfectly made it in 1946.


It was impossible to destroy the country more strongly, than Japan has been destroyed, but look, what jerk they have made! The country which didn't hold out till industrial one has turned to one of the leaders of postindustrial vanguard. And, in general Japan not only could, but also has been simply obliged to think of how to take the following step in its development. Thus, it is necessary to attack somebody! Attention, a question – to attack whom? The attack on China, of course, is useful and interesting thing but while the civil war hasn't begun in China, it is very fraught with consequences. The attack on Taiwan? It is very interesting and quite probable. I don't exclude, that Japanese Taiwan will be more favourable than Taiwanese Taiwan for China in a number of scenarios. The North Korea? Everybody will agree, even China. South Korea? And it will depend on how you beautifully will make it. The Japanese create the East Asian sphere of co-prosperity on analog of the European Union in our story “Gilbertov’s desert” and consequently there are no problems …

Also there is one more situation - Russia. The territory in the Far East is rich of different resources, including oil. And Japan has certain rights to this territory. As we well as Russia has rights to Hanover! Here is the weight of difficult historical artful designs. There is quite clear scheme in such situation. It is standard: we attack the Kuril Islands, grasp them and address to the United Nations. The United Nations speaks: it is bad, impolite to do that! But the main thing is that it is necessary to stop the bloodshed, naturally on those positions which already are … And further Russia will explain all remained time that somebody has grasped the islands and that it is impossible to do that.

Japan had such possibility. Besides don't forget that every time the beginning of large European showdown can be anticipated by the Russian-Japanese war. It has been carried out in 1904-1905, in 1936-1939. That is the danger is quite real. And I considered that such war can begin most likely either in 2011 or in 2012. It is more convenient to do it in the summer and in the autumn for some reasons.

But there is no necessity so to solve the internal problems after the earthquake in front of Japan. And the war isn’t necessary now for the decision of external problems – it is the expensive pleasure: to receive resources at such cost. I consider that now the chances of such war became strongly less, but they are not zero. But I think at the same time that Japan will be strongly interested now by Taiwan. So the most different variants are possible. And basically the situation in the Far East, which was recently at the level of absolutely disturbing, has improved now.

By the way, the Russian top management has seriously concerned idea that Japan can attack the Russian Far East under any circumstances and even has spent the teaching there on reflection of opposite landing operations. It is very interesting that the Japanese have asked then: and against whom this teaching was made in the Far East?! Neither China, nor Korea have not become interested in this question – only Japan had the interest exclusively. The Russian government has given the historical answer – it will be included into all textbooks of diplomacy: certainly, against the terrorists and against whom else?! And the outset of this opposite landing teaching was the following: the opponent by the forces of two carrier groups … well and so on …