“Lustrator” Poroshenko signs laws in fear of radicals’ crowd

Many decisions of Ukraine president directly depend now on requirements of the disorderly crowds of radical nationalists. The political scientist, the director of the Kiev Centre of Political Research and Conflictology Mikhail Borisovich Pogrebinsky answers the questions of «The world and we».

— Many experts refuse independence of the Ukrainian power and claim that all issues concerning situation development in Ukraine are resolved in Washington. In your opinion, is some freedom of action at the Ukrainian power?

Of course, there is a certain range of action freedom at the president, first of all. But it is absolutely incorrect to claim that he a pure puppet. First of all, because in Washington there is no any certain branch of Presidential Administration which resolves all issues, of course.

There are some directions, fundamental issues which Poroshenko can’t carry out, without having warned the companions from State Department. But it doesn’t mean that he acts as a pure puppet. He has quite wide range of autonomous opportunities for decision-making.

— Poroshenko made the decision on signing of the law on lustration. What consequences will it have, will it strengthen the radical moods?

This is compelled decision made in view of own weakness. Poroshenko perfectly understands that this law contradicts the Constitution. The Attorney-General Vitaly Yarema publicly declared it. Thus, signing of this law he violates the Constitution and own functions of its guarantor. But Poroshenko is afraid of crowd reaction. He has now no rather strong support neither in power structures, nor in political circles, who would allow him to risk.

Therefore he also made the decision to sign this law. But further quite long process will begin — the application will be submitted to the Constitutional court to recognize this law unconstitutional. Therefore it won’t come into force at once. And even if it will occur because also the Constitutional court will be frightened of fast national lustration on moving of judges to trash cans, all the same this law won’t be used at once and everywhere and will become more likely means for management of crowd pressure. It won’t be that it came into force and half a million people received instructions to write resignations, differently they will be dismissed under the law. Certainly, it won’t occur.

— Do you agree that armistice is only maneuver for the Ukrainian party to save up new forces for conflict continuation?

I think that Poroshenko has no long-term, strategic decisions. He acts exclusively tactically. We don’t know, whether Putin or Obama have strategic decisions, perhaps they have, but Poroshenko precisely doesn’t have them. He acts, proceeding from the short-term horizon of events.

For example, he understands that a situation is critical for armed forces which try to smooth out Donets Basin, the counterattack of rebels began and the situation promptly worsened. It became clear that in this situation it is necessary to stop. And he gave himself «to urge» to stop. I think that he doesn’t consider any plan for collecting forces and the attack beginning.

Poroshenko proceeds from a short-term outlook — the elections will pass and we look what political support and financial situation will be, who will manage to be put in executive power. And depending on all this set of factors he will make decisions on further actions. I think, in the latest turn further suppression of Donets Basin is supposed by military force. He rather well understood that he won’t be given such chance, how many he received the arms, however many the American advisers arrived.

But if the situation would become more favorable in 2−3 months, he will be able to manage to get something from Putin, for example, the gas price. Or, if situation is absolutely adverse, then he should recede in something else. Therefore you shouldn’t look for long-term strategy in Poroshenko’s actions, of course.