Abkhazia: how the Olympic Games in Sochi will affect policy?

The known political scientist Liana Kvarcheliya, representing the Centre of Humanitarian Programs in Sukhumi stated the view of expectations of the Abkhazian society in connection with the Olympic Games in Sochi at conference in Brussels about which our portal already told.

We give the most interesting fragments from her message:

- Against loud political disputes round the Olympic Games, caused by revival of the Circassian question and policy of the former leadership of Georgia, against enthusiasm and hopes of the Russian leadership to an occasion of carrying out the games on the territories of Russia, that fact that in a public discourse in Abkhazia, actually in several kilometres from the Olympic Sochi, the forthcoming event takes rather modest place attracts attention.

It should be noted that the peak of conversations on the Olympic Games in connection with the Circassian question passed in Abkhazia approximately a year ago. By the present moment if in Abkhazia also speak about the Olympic Games, that, generally arguing on the practical questions connected with the forthcoming restrictions on crossing of the Abkhazian-Russian border.

With what the low level of attention is connected surprisingly from the Abkhazian society to an important international event in such close neighbourhood?

Initially during the period when the decision on holding the Olympic Games in Sochi was made, the economic projects in which Abkhazia could be involved were actively discussed in the Abkhazian society: it is the delivery to Sochi of inert materials, and housing construction in the border area for workers of the Olympic construction, and unblocking of transport communications, first of all the Sukhumi airport, and access opening for guests of the Olympic Games to tourist objects of Abkhazia etc. However to hopes for implementation of these projects, except for deliveries of small quantity on the volume of inert materials, as a whole it wasn’t fated to come true therefore the interest to a subject began to die away gradually.

The most important question influencing the adoption of these or those decisions in connection with the Olympic Games is a safety issue. The concern of Russia in a situation in the North Caucasus and echoes of the Georgian threats proceeding from the former leadership of Georgia, certainly, has strong impact on that, as the airport and tourist objects in the territory of Abkhazia won’t be involved in the Olympic context, and the mode on the Abkhazian-Russian border will change towards toughening.

The Russian side is interested in creation of steady safety conditions in adjacent regions in anticipation of the Olympic Games and wants to exclude probability of that extremist groups use Abkhazia as the transit territory for commission of acts of terrorism during the games. Detection by spring of 2012 on territories of Abkhazia of a cache of the weapon which was allegedly belonging to representatives of radical Islamic groups, murder of the Russian diplomat in 2013 — all this does a question of strengthening of security measures in Abkhazia extremely actual.

Today it is possible to say that disclosure of several loud crimes connected with attempts at life of the president of Abkhazia, with resonant murders — the Russian diplomat and the Russian businessman and his companion, not to mention the detection of a cache of the weapon mentioned above became a positive result of more intensive cooperation of the Russian intelligence services and the Abkhazian law enforcement agencies. Such cooperation, certainly, will create steadier situation from the point of view of safety in the forthcoming months.

Not really noticeable presence of the Olympic subject is connected that traditionally summer sports are cultivated in Abkhazia. Small Abkhazia has champions and prize-winners of the international competitions of different level, including the Olympic Games, in summer sports. Therefore the revival of interest to sports as to that in connection with the forthcoming Winter Olympic Games, alas, didn’t happen.

In spite of the fact that the Olympic subject doesn’t take a noticeable place in the Abkhazian political discourse as that, nevertheless latently the factor of the Olympic Games influences the internal political processes.

All political groups in Abkhazia understand that for the main ally of Abkhazia carrying out the Olympic Games is the issue of the international prestige, and that Russia is interested in that the situation in adjacent Abkhazia remained stable. Taking into account the opposition decided to begin approach to the president in good time, at the beginning of 2013, expecting to make change of the power and to come with the new government by the beginning of the Olympic Games. However, it wasn’t succeeded to dismiss the government in February, 2013. It wasn’t succeeded to mobilize in large quantities society and in September of this year during discussion of results of work of the commission on establishment of the violations connected with issue of passports of the citizen of Abkhazia.

With approach of the Olympic Games the opposition is compelled to take rather waiting attitude, without taking the plunge, but also without weakening tension in society.

In Abkhazia the political passions boil today. But until the end of March, 2014, the status quo, though rather turbulent, most likely will remain. This time will be used by opposition forces for a regrouping of forces, there will be new alliances and tandems.

Conclusions

If to generalize the positive moments connected with carrying out of the Olympic Games in the neighbouring region, it is possible to note:

- The guaranteed stability in respect of preservation of internal political balance; strengthening of safety conditions and minimization of external threats for Abkhazia (strengthening of borders); decrease in probability of use of the territory of Abkhazia by extremist groups from the outside, an effective law enforcement cooperation of Abkhazia and the Russian Federation in disclosure of loud crimes; continuation of the social and economic help of Abkhazia etc.

- Strengthening of the international attention to the Caucasian region as a whole and to Abkhazia which is on border with the Olympic Sochi, in particular;

- Access to the developed economic, tourist (winter), transport, communication infrastructure in the region adjacent to Abkhazia.