Nikita Mendkovich: “The Iraq scenario will be repeated in Afghanistan after 2014 year”

Afghanistan continues to stay at the centre of attention and the interest to the events in this country grows as the term of a withdrawal of troops of the international coalition comes nearer, which not far off.

At our request the historian, economist, the expert of the Centre for Study of Modern Afghanistan Nikita Mendkovich shared the reasons about a situation in Afghanistan. He is a participant of the Russian and international conferences and forums on problems of Central Asia, the author of many publications on the Afghan subject.

- Why such big place is given to Afghanistan in the world politics? Geopolitics call this country as “world centre” and argue that from the one who supervises it, a lot of things depends not only on the Middle East …

- The role of Afghanistan in world politics is defined first of all by a terrorism factor, after all the network of terrorist camps was under the power of the Taliban in the country in which the attack on September 11 prepared. Strategically Afghanistan also can be considered as a transit zone between Central Asia and the coast of the Indian Ocean that has a certain economic value at export of energy resources from the former Soviet Union. Besides, Afghanistan has large stocks of minerals.

- Is it possible to control Afghanistan in general? Does any foreign presence here is doomed to inevitable leaving?

- It is always difficult to control any mountainous territory which occupied by the society keeping many elements of a patrimonial system. However, similar tasks repeatedly and successfully were solved in our history. Simply nobody put a similar task with reference to Afghanistan up to the end of the XX century.

The thesis about failure of any military invasion is represented disputable. Afghanistan didn't win any external war for more than the last century. Defeat in wars with Great Britain in the XIX century was especially large during which the country lost the so-called “zone of tribes” which now belongs to Pakistan.

- What are the relations of Afghanistan and Pakistan? Is the national boundary between two neighbouring states?

- The relations between these countries are intense, including, because of disputable territories. Besides, a number of political groups in Pakistan, including the so-called lobby of “military retirees” cooperate with the Afghan Talibs that doesn't simplify the interstate dialogue too. The boundary functions, the border guards is conducted with both parties that, however, doesn't exclude the illegal penetrations as well as on any national boundary, including, for example, the boundary of Mexico and the USA.

- How is it possible to estimate the results of the operation which were carried out in the territory of the country of NATO and some other states? What were the purposes and were they reached?

- Elimination of large bases of Al-Qaeda in the region and destruction of organizers of attacks on September 11 was the main official goal of operation that, as a whole, was executed. Bin Laden was killed, the Islamic terrorists appeared in an underground and can't act so freely any more as till 2001 year. Besides, the USA aspired to create the long-term base in the region that also it was done. The long-term Afghan-American military bases will be created in the country under the agreement on strategic cooperation.

The region remains rather unstable, however the situation is better in any case than in 2001 when the most part of the country was supervised by radical Taliban Islamists.

- The date of troops’ withdrawal is known. Can it be removed?

- At present it is extremely improbable.

- Can the present regime in Kabul to control a situation independently, without the help of foreign armies?

- Approximately in a year, undoubtedly, it will be ready to do it. Already now the most part of the current control over the territory of the country is carried out by the Afghan army and police. Foreign forces mainly support to rear services with technical providing, medicine, electronic investigation, help to conduct the staff preparation. There are all bases to believe that after 2014 the history of Iraq will repeat in the country where after a withdrawl of foreign armies the government could keep control over the country, despite high activity of terrorists.

I want to emphasize that a certain level of violence, possibly, will remain in Afghanistan after a withdrawal of troops, but it won't mean the political crash of a regime and will pose limited threat for neighbouring states.

- Many experts say that the drug traffic from Afghanistan grew in recent years in times. What is the reason of it, after all there are armies of the states in the country, which, it seems, wage ruthless war with drug businessmen at home?

- The international forces initially didn't want to assume additional functions on fight against drug traffic, aspiring to be limited by only anti-terrorist mission. It is clear, as the Afghan opiates seldom get on the drug markets of the USA which are the main motive power of operation.

At the end of the 2000th under the pressure of Russia, NATO agreed to assume a number of functions on fight against the drug traffic, however now a leading role in this fight should and can play already the Afghan security forces. A situation with drugs in Afghanistan is difficult that is connected with the social and economic reasons, but this is a subject for separate conversation.

- Is it possible to present Afghanistan as the country where the fight against drugs is really conducted in the foreseeable future?

- Strictly speaking, it is conducted already now. Quite often the trials of drug dealers pass, elimination of illegal crops of opium poppy is conducted. Yes, on a complex of the reasons the problem while is far from the decision, but it isn't a consequence of complete refusal of counteraction to drug traffic.

- What is today's position of Russia in relation to problems of Afghanistan? How is it possible to estimate the level of our bilateral relations?

- Russia supports today anti-terrorist operation in the country though criticizes a number of actions and strategic installations of NATO in Afghanistan. The relations with official Kabul are friendly, as a whole. The economic cooperation develops, Russia is the large supplier of combustive-lubricating materials to the country. Besides, the dialogue at level of the Scientific Production Associations and the religious organizations of our countries is carried on.