The European integration of Ukraine is the “lack of alternative” deadlock

The political scientist, the director of the Kiev center of political researches and conflictology Mikhail Borisovich Pogrebinsky comments the latest events in the Ukrainian political life.

- Due to the amplifying contradictions between EU and Ukraine because of Tymoshenko's case how do you estimate the prospects of the European integration which the Ukrainian management represents as the main foreign policy vector? Will the integration relations on the Eurasian direction develop more because of it?

I do not think that Tymoshenko's case is the main reason for delays with our integration into EU. There are more serious reasons and considerably Tymoshenko's case is a simple and clear occasion which explains the negative attitude of EU to Ukraine. If there wouldn’t be Tymoshenko's case, would be something other as the decision that the prospects of membership aren't provided to Ukraine is accepted for a long time and the “senior” members of EU Germany and France accurately take the view.

The Ukrainian approach to the European integration fully exhausted itself because of the lack of prospect and absolutely distinct answer of the Europeans to such wishes of Ukraine. But it didn't sputter out in the sense that Ukraine wants to build itself by principles and values of EU. And this position is declared as uncontested for the Ukrainian elite. But the fact of the statement for a lack of alternative didn’t simply settle – it looks senselessly and even humiliating. How is it possible to speak about the lack of alternative of the deadlock?

Firstly, the choice of the word “lack of alternative” looks quite silly as the alternative always exists. Certainly, it is today too. The other thing is that the present Ukrainian management, which came to power under a banner of absolutely other alternative, today actually breaks these principles.

And before the next elections they will try to show the desire to be true to the promises. But there is not enough time to elections and our heads still continue to speak about the lack of alternative of the European choice. It seems to me that time of this lexicon and rhetoric leaves and the closer to the elections, the less often the word “lack of alternative” will sound.

Does it mean that Ukraine is ready to move to embraces of the Customs Union and other integration projects which are offered by Moscow? No, it doesn't mean. I think that Moscow wasted time in many respects to work with the Ukrainian elite, with the Ukrainian business, showing the real advantages of the integration offers in practice, instead of in words. It was necessary to work intensively in this direction during many months and possibly the years. It wasn’t done and now the sharp turn is improbable.

I think that anyway Ukraine will come to a decision that it is impossible to stand aside from these integration projects. But it is impossible to say now how and in what form Ukraine will join.

- Could the Championship of Europe 2012 become an important factor for an intensification of the European integration processes, was it assumed as an informal platform for implementation of arrangements with the European politicians? And is it possible such role now, after emergence and conflict strengthening between EU and Ukraine?

To some extent it will carry out this function. A number of meetings with those European politicians which didn't refuse to arrive is planned and it will be used by the Ukrainian power. But it isn't less important that tens thousands of people who will arrive to us, will be convinced of Merkel's words that there is the dictatorship here, repressions sound not adequately. They will see, of course, any brothel, but not dictatorship. I think that this is important sobering up of the European public opinion.

- Having considering what support Europe and the USA render to Tymoshenko, is it possible to draw a conclusion, that opposition to the Russian language, which she actively carries out, is a lobbying of interests of the western community in Ukraine?

I wouldn't begin to unite it in this way. She opposes to the giving of the official status to the Russian language not because it will be pleasant to the Europeans, though they have the ambiguous line here, as she wants to get support in the west of Ukraine. And this symbol “don't touch the Ukrainian language!” defines the identification “own - another”. She simply once again confirms that she is own for the Western Ukraine. But she communicates in the Russian in a life and generally isn't the Ukrainian nationalist and the enemy of the Russian language. It is a pure political technology.

- How the adoption of law “Of principles of the state language policy”, assuming giving the status of regional to the Russian language in a number of areas, will affect further the behavior of “orange” opposition?

“Fifth column” of people is in the party in power who act as frank and desperate enemies of the Russian language and the rights of the Russian-speaking citizens.
These are the people who work in the Presidential Administration, in the government, partially the deputies of parliament. The presence of this “fifth column” does the attacks of “orange” opponents so fierce, as they understand that they have allies in that camp.

For example, there is Maria Stavniychuk in the Presidential Administration, occupying the high post in the direction of the constitutional recommendations. It is also Poroshenko whom they took in the government and he obviously represents “orange” camp. And, nevertheless, he is the member of the government, the Minister of Economics. There are also “people - weathercocks” such as Litvin who chose such line at which always opposed the interests of the Russian-speaking citizens.

It reflects the relation of supreme leaders of the Ukrainian state that the ideological, humanitarian subject is minor. Thus they don't receive support at all from these persons, on whom such personnel decisions are calculated. The power takes people who openly support the Galicia position. They, possibly, assume to unite the country in the following way, think that Galicia will treat them better. Something similar doesn't occur – the process of a rejection of the existing power is very strong and first of all in the Western Ukraine.