The era of 500 years' domination of the western civilization most likely comes to an end …

The director of Institute of economy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Doctor of Economics, the corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the academician of the International academy of management Ruslan Grinberg told in Novosibirsk about the latest tendencies in world economy:

- Speaking about the current trends in the development of world economy, it is necessary to look more deeply that occurs in real life. Actually Russia is very peculiar country. Here much what occurs and nobody knows how everything, really, will develop in our remarkable country. The only thing can be understood: here occurs both good and bad. On our actions depends as we will adjust balance both that and another, in what direction we will develop.

There was such American diplomat George Kennan: he was the ambassador of the USA in the USSR, was one of serious experts of Russia. He said that Russia is the surprising country. He taught the young specialists who came from Washington to Moscow how to estimate the information: if you receive two opposite information on the contents about any event, most likely, both of them are faithful!

And in this sense we have to understand today that Russia now is such country which in 20 years lost a lot of things from this that was at the Soviet power. We lost a lot of sensible ideas – I mean, first of all, science, culture, education, health care. It is wrong to think that it was “Golden Age”, but at least from the point of view of economy of knowledge, the USSR was very serious power then.

There are many different ratings which estimate a country place in world hierarchy and, probably, most adequate of them is an index of human development. The matter is not only of the welfare, but also about nation health, of its education. Gross domestic product per capita is a separate thing because there are many different problems. In the USSR it was in a good condition, but Russia lost those advantages that were. We were on the 20-30th places according to different indicators. And now we have the 40-50th places …

We understand that one of serious today's problems of Russia is the reduction of middle class and very powerful polarization according to the income. It is very serious because it is impossible to solve any big problems when you have a different way of life and small class of successful people – very narrow middle class… As don't consider, but more than 20% it won't turn out all the same! And it is considered that the development is stable when two thirds of the population belong to middle class.
Today it is subjected to very serious tests in the countries of Europe – there it is promptly narrowed. It is very serious – there is a gap and powerful increase of an inequality for the last 30 years. It is led that the elections of the American president have very great value for the whole world. Yes, they always had the value. This time there is a serious ideological dispute, and I personally support Obama. If he loses, there will be a big trouble for the whole world. But there are people who consider that it is still necessary to support the rich people as the rich bring the country into a healthy condition. And this fight of two, I even would say, quasi-religions, proceeds.

Now there is such situation that it isn't known what the economy will be in the world. There is a big confusion about it! If 5-7 years ago they spoke about the development of civil society and pluralistic democracy, so today it isn't so clear what, strictly speaking, will come in exchange after that crisis.

There are tendencies which were already firmly designated. It is possible to say that they work:

The first. We observe the recovery of real economy and refusal of the balance relation to the post-industrial world. They said that the economy of knowledge forces out the real production, but it became clear that it is not absolutely so, and, maybe, not so at all! Germany made innovative goods and China – technological goods; and they endured crisis better because they weren't fond of financial operations. And the world strongly worries on the fact that they are such excellent students …

There is a leadership crisis. Nobody wants that Germany was the main country in Europe, but all want that Germany was engaged in the European zone rescue! And this opposition is very heavy especially as the destiny of euro is decided.

The second. Restoration of cycles. It seemed to us that the cycles disappeared. When you have 130 months of economic growth running, you are firmly convinced that it will be always! It is as with weather: if the sun brightly shines, it seems that exactly so will be further… But actually there is the theory of corpulent years and lean years. Now we observe an economic depression around the world, but, probably, it is the price that there was a long phase of economic growth.

The third. Return of centralization and concentration of the capital –it is exact as Marx spoke. It was considered that in connection with the development of a computer era, the giants are necessary to nobody; their century comes to an end. But actually it is still very far from it. And the world is ruled by the giants!

It puts Russia before very serious call. For example, there are different judgments concerning what economy will be more effective: if Gazprom remains the large company, or as many want in the world that on its place there were some companies. All have own arguments …

One more example. Only two countries from 200 made wide-body planes: USSR and the USA. We then produced130 planes per year and today – three-four per year… And nobody proves to me that it is the price for transition to democracy and the market which are still doubtful in itself.

I think that we have certain competitive advantages. There are risks, of course, but there are also chances to become the advanced country. Now there is a powerful competition and it is necessary to have at least 10-12 serious brands – besides “Kalashnikov” and other military equipment.

They speak much about a transport corridor Europe — Asia. It seems to me that it is very important story! From the Chinese party both the politicians and businessmen are very interested that this story, at last, was realized: the powerful corridor with logistics and innovative productions would be constructed. And there are good chances because the world needs faster movement of goods.

The shift to the East is observed. It is clear that the era of 500 years’ domination of the western civilization most likely comes to an end, but it won't be quickly! And in my representation Siberia has to become a link between the East gaining strength and innovative Europe.