The growth of ultrarightist moods in the West Ukraine can lead to country split.

The historian, journalist, political scientist, the director of the Ukrainian branch of Institute of the CIS countries Vladimir Vladimirovich Kornilov answers the questions of Internet portal “The World and We”: the aggressive policy of Hungary and Romania concerning Ukraine, the growth of nationalist sentiments in the West Ukraine, strategic plans of Europe and the USA at the possible scenario of split of Ukraine because of arrival of nationalists to the power, strengthening of radical right-wing moods in Europe and geopolitical consequences of it for Ukraine.

- What is your relation to the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary that the employees of the Ukrainian special services put power and moral pressure upon their compatriots and to the requirement “to observe the legal and civil rights of the ethnic Hungarians living in Zakarpatye”? To the statement that these actions, ostensibly, are the political order? Is it the rough intervention in internal affairs of Ukraine?

Probably, I will disagree with the opinion of many colleagues but I consider that similar reaction of Hungary is quite adequate. Because the matter is not only about the citizens of Ukraine but also about the ethnic Hungarians, the rights of whom Hungary should protect and outside of the state. Or, at least, to care of preservation of the Hungarian language, the ethnic, language, cultural, civil rights of ethnic Hungarians outside of the state of Hungary. And in this sense I always cite the actions of the Hungarian and Romanian management as an example to the Russian representatives, so that they have taught how it is necessary to work with the compatriots outside of the state. If Russia react to infringement of the rights of ethnic Russians in such way, it would be, of course, positive for the development of the Russian state.
After all on what the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Hungary has roughly reacted? On that the Security Service of Ukraine has started to check the citizens of Ukraine who are suspected that they have put in statements on reception of the Hungarian citizenship and was received by the Hungarian passports. And how many similar “interviews” the Security Service of Ukraine has spent in Sevastopol with people who “were suspected” of reception of the Russian passport! That is hundreds of cases, if not thousands! And there is no any reaction of the Russian management to such reference with the compatriots living outside of Russia! The Hungarians show as it is necessary to work with compatriots, protecting their rights not in words but in practice, really reacting to infringement of their rights. In this sense I consider that the actions of Romania and Hungary are adequate.

Another matter, whether the most friendly policy is adequate to Ukraine when such purposeful policy on passports issue is spent in spite of the laws of the Ukrainian state? Basically, the world supposes both double and plural citizenship now. And it isn't crying fact. In this sense Ukraine needs to learn to live in the modern world, to accept as a reality that the mass of the citizens of Ukraine have already received other passports. Certainly, once this reality should be embodied legislatively. Finally Ukraine should consider the problem faster on possibility of issue by the citizens of Ukraine of plural citizenship. And then the problem of Romania and Hungary will cease to be such a problem. And the basic quantity of citizens of Ukraine, according to public opinion poll, if will receive a dual citizenship, so the citizenship of the Russian Federation.

- In your opinion, that two countries, Romania and Hungary, have started to use simultaneously the same methods with unlimited passports issue and that the official representatives of these countries began to afford more and more sharp statements towards Ukraine - whether it speaks about the general trend of NATO and Europe policy in relation to Ukraine and about the realization of some long-term strategy?

I don't think that Hungary or Romania has far-reaching purposes at state policy level concerning the tearing away of the territories of Zakarpatye or the Southwest of the Odessa region. Basically, we’ve heard the statements of the high-ranking figures of Hungary and especially Romania that there are a number of territorial questions to Ukraine. And we saw not in words but in practice as Romania has taken away a part of an economic zone in the Black sea and, of course, it is made not that somebody has played up to them here, in Ukraine. Certainly, it can be a serious problem in the future. Thus I don't think that NATO provokes Hungary and Romania to this policy. But we see that EU very inertly reacts to such actions of these countries though there were official calls of Kiev to EU about it.

Thus, we see a general problem for Europe: there is the growth of ultrarightist moods. We see how the every possible right organization either come to the power or receive a considerable number of votes that gives the chance to them to influence a policy in these states and to displace the ideological center in the right party. We observe the splash of hurrah-patriotic moods with each election in Hungary and Romania and it compels the politicians of the highest level, presidents, ministers to make certain hurrah-patriotic statements for expansion of influence of the state, about global projects “Great Romania”, “Great Hungary”. But this tendency is looked through not only in Hungary and Romania — simply they are the neighbors of Ukraine. The given tendencies in France and Germany, for example, are directed against emigration — simply they don't have such “convenient” neighbor as Ukraine, they have nobody to make a complaint aloud. Certainly, sooner or later similar hurrah-patriotic games, as we are taught by history, can come to the end with more serious conflicts. The games with nationalism can come to the end with that Europe has already worried less than century ago.

- How is the scenario realistic for Ukraine which has been carried out in other East European states of the former Warsaw contract, namely, the division into some parts, as it has occurred with Czech Republic or separation of autonomies as it has occurred with Kosovo?

I don't think that the West has the long-playing plans of purposeful division of Ukraine now. But, anyway, such option should be considered by everybody. Ukraine periodically patrols on the verge of the status of “failed state” as, for example, in 2004 year. And, of course, potentially possible situation of disintegration of Ukraine should be considered both in Moscow, in Brussells and in Washington. And all the more the nearest neighbors of Ukraine. Because there is such scenario and such possibility theoretically is present. There will be more serious problems at the next shock “a la Maidan” than simply non-realized statements and project about the creation of the Southeast Ukrainian republic.

Certainly, such scenario can be estimated. But I think, both in Moscow and in Brussells all the same estimate also the negative consequences from the similar scenario. And they can see it desirable only in one case, from one and another hand: in that case if Europe will have a threat that Ukraine completely will join all structures of Russia, to reunite with Russia or will get to its zone of influence which already can't be broken in any way. It is on the contrary for Russia all the same. If Ukraine already definitively entered NATO, of course, “the less” of Ukraine will enter NATO, so it would be better for Russia as it cynically sounds. Such scenarios should be considered. It doesn't mean that Brussells or Moscow develop the plans as they will alienate the pieces of Ukraine. But the given threat exists in the Ukraine without dependence from Bucharest, Brussells or Moscow.

It is not a secret that we periodically actively discussed a theme of possible separation now Crimea, now Donets Basin or Western Ukraine. There is an opinion in the east of Ukraine that the border should be spent on Zbruch and in the West - on Perekop and Donets Basin. And then ostensibly all will be good. These are the illusions, of course, from one and the other hand. I won’t speak about the scenario of similar division in detail now but that the given scenarios should be considered by working out of long-term strategy is needless to say. I will repeat myself, the main threat of integrity of Ukraine is in Ukraine, in its nature. The presence de facto two “Ukraine” as a part of this unitary state which constantly tries to impose any one unitary model both for Lvov and for Donetsk, leads finally to increase of these threats. But, if, God forbid, all starts to break up under the Yugoslavian scenario, so neither Brussells, nor Moscow aren't interested in it, of course.

All was easier for the West in the relation to Yugoslavia. They have a priori guilty people, namely the Serbs what it isn’t to happen there. The expel millions Serbs from Serbian Krajina, but the Serbs are guilty. The Bosnians, the Serbs, the Muslems, orthodox believers cut each other under Srebrenitsa — all the same orthodox believers are guilty regardless of that who has cut more. We understand that the Russians are always guilty in relation to Ukraine. Serbia for them is such mini-Russia. And accordingly, they can't make the Ukrainians guilty a priori. They don't have sense now to divide Ukraine, to liquidate this project. They will always support it, while the possible option will remain that all Ukraine entirely join to NATO and that they will receive such remarkable base putting in the heart of Russia. It will be considered in this case as a desirable variant of preservation of unified, stable Ukraine. They don't have sense to Balkanize this territory in order to receive a headache. That, of course, doesn't deny the working off of all possible scenarios.

- At the increase of conflicts in the Western areas, considering that there are ultrarightist forces at the power, whether it threatens the territorial integrity of Ukraine? If already now the representatives of that place give the appeals openly to overthrow of the existing power, revolution, whether the appeals will sound to a separation from Ukraine if the authorities take measures on suppression of separatist actions?

Anyway, the development of ultranationalist ideology, its radicalization is dangerous to any state, even the most stable and quiet (the recent example of Norway has proved it). That fact that present establishment, the Ukrainian power make advances to these ultra-radical moods for achievement of certain tactical targets, considering them like “clowns”, doesn't reduce this danger in any way. People who are engaged in it, sponsor this ideology, supported before elections, obviously aren't familiar with history. The strengthening of these radical moods and displacement of the ideological center across all Ukraine to such moods is very disturbing tendency. The success of the radical right-wingers will lead to serious shocks in the country. But it still can turn back like a global problem, first of all, for Russia. One of these days the main ideologist of “Freedom” has directly told that their ideology consists on anti-Russism. Besides, it is a problem for the West too. The occurrence of such ultra Nazi state or enclave that is created now in the West Ukraine is very big problem for all neighbors.

And for this reason the concern is expressed now in the West in connection with arrival of the Nazis to these regions to the power – I don't name them as neo-Nazis because they don't hide that profess not neo-Nazism at all, but namely the Nazi ideology in a classical kind. It is enough to open “livejornal” of the adviser of ideology of party “Freedom” Mikhalchishin and to read his reasoning on this theme. He has defended the Candidate’s dissertation on ideology of the National Socialist German Workers Party (NSDAP). He admires the classical Nazism. For this reason the West works with the Kiev authorities to lift a barrier through passage and not to allow these ultra-radicals to come to parliament. It is very disturbing tendency. And if these Nazis receive more serious power not only in three regions as a result, so the integrity of Ukraine will be put under the big doubt. To live in one state with these Nazis don’t want neither in Crimea, nor in Lugansk.

- In your opinion, what were the principal causes of the events on May, 9th? To what consequences these events will result in the Ukrainian policy?

These events have one positive consequence: at last, all have paid attention to this range of problems. Actually, those who live in Lvov will confirm that similar events became already bad tradition. There are years more silent, but happen more difficult. But such national, youth entertainment “Beat the veteran on May, 9th” exists there since May 9, 1989 – those years the first fights have started to occur, time and again tried to forbid the celebratory processions of veterans. And since then, there are serious skirmishes one time in 2-3 years when the young neo-Banderovites come and try to prevent the veterans to lay the flowers. The power, as a rule, stays idle and if do something, so on the contrary, in support of nationalists. I have an acquaintance, who to protect the procession of veterans on May, 9th. And one time in 2-3 years (it became the tradition for him already) he heals the wounds after May, 9th. And nobody pay attention to this. Now it became public at least. Already throughout the quarter of the century the veterans are beaten, the monuments are broken in the West Ukraine. Come in YouTube and you will see the fresh shots as they cut a head to a monument to the Soviet soldier, solemnly and without disappearing especially. And nobody bear responsibility!

The events of May, 9th have demonstrated who is the power in city. It is impossible to present, that the crowd of deputies of local councils has easily rushed into an office to the governor in Crimea or Kiev and has forced him to write a resignation statement before a television camera. It testifies that the governor is not the power there. And they try to belittle the value of the given events to us now- that, ostensibly, there were the hooligans and it isn’t necessary to pay attention to them. So that is the difference between events of this and last year that if earlier there were simply hooligans who beat the veterans, so now it is already the power! They became the majority in the City Councils, in Galicia Regional Councils since last year. Also it is the most wistful consequences of local elections of last year. And the regionals show me joyfully - look, Timoshenko's ratings are reduced to nothing in the West Ukraine thanks to “Freedom” support! The most wistful is that, so to say “clowns” from “Freedom” as they try to be present and their ideology has got serious material, resource support. Because they are the power now, the local business should be considered with them, they have received the budgetary feed of the actions. Now their ideology can develop. And without any counterbalance on a political field of Ukraine, they act as the unique really effective party involving considerably adjusted electorate. And this aggravates the danger of this situation even more. It is necessary to think seriously of creation of ideological counterbalances, about occurrence of such anti-Tyagnybok of the Southeast for evening-out of this danger in Ukraine. Ukraine and at its neighbors will have problems without it.