Who needs the Uncatchable Jonas?

It is known that fear hath a hundred eyes. Our Baltic neighbors do not grow weary of scaring themselves from the terrible threat that comes from Russia. But addicting the across-the-board panic, they think intensely all time how they can put an everlasting screen on the way of the aggressor with whom, by the way, the treaties as to the borders were signed, and any territorial problems have not been foreseen.

The deceased Victor Stepanovich Chernomyrdin had put into practice “khotelki” term. Well then, our Baltic neighbors in regard to the Russian lands had counted much of those “khotelki”. But in due season, it was reminded to them by Vladimir Putin about “dead donkey ears” as to the appetite to Pytalovsk region… They kept it silent in regard to this part, but at once they started to think about something totally different. The history, in general, isn’t a new one; it’s just a rehash of the old fairy tale: the myth about the Soviet military threat was, and now the same is about the Russian threat.

This year in Lithuania they tried to calculate: if something goes wrong, when the courageous allies will come to defend the Lithuanian democracy? International practices were held a while ago, during which the activities on three teams accepting with 12 thousand military men were. As the result of these practices the general Algis Vaichelunas, the head of the joint Headquarters of the Lithuanian army had stated: “If we talk about the team, then I think that in practice it will take about two weeks for accepting this one”. This figure had seriously startled anxious society. Because that general had spoken about another unpleasant thing: “Beyond all doubt, it depends also on political decisions of NATO, because the consent of 28 countries is required so the forces of the alliance would come here. If one state says no, then it will mean no”.

They remembered the words of Zenonas Vegelyabichus, the previous commanding officer of the Air Force, who had noticed competently: “It’s not hard to occupy Lithuania, which occupies the territory of about 69 thousand square kilometers. It is enough to send four divisions and this is only the matter of time… Then there won’t be the place to come to for those who will come to defend us. Do you understand what kind of the squiggle we get!


Here it may be the right time to refer to the history and in order to be more exact to 1940, when the Baltic republics allotted the Soviet Union. The troops of the Belarus region received the order to cross the frontier of 15 June at 15 o’clock and only by 14 o’clock of the next day all territory of Lithuania was under its control. By June 21, under its control the entire territory of the Baltic region was. The casualties of the Red Army were 58 men (among them 28 are the battle casualties), 158 men were injured. Then the Lithuanian war forces accounted about 28 thousand men. They had the following: 132 aircrafts, 45 tanks and 400 cannons and even three armored trains. The fleet was represented by both the “President Smetona” - military training ship and the former German trawler of the First World War times. Later it entered the Baltic fleet and on 11 January 1945 the one was torpedoed by the German submarine…

What is like the present Lithuanian army? Let’s rubberneck of sheer interest. There are 4 thousand men in land forces. There are 130 American armored fighting vehicles and 10 Soviet BRDM-2, there are 72 towed howitzers. In the Air force there are 1000 men. According to the American data the Lithuanian aviation consists of six Czech “Albatrosses”, eight military-transport aircrafts, among them three our AN-26. The list is completed by the following ones: eight AN-2 and four light practice planes, as well as nine MI-8.

The Naval forces are estimated in quantity of 850 persons, they have two German mine sweepers, four Danish and Norwegian patrol vessels, there is even the controlling vessel, which in its youth was the Norwegian mine planter. What’s about the Special Forces? Is it presented in the Lithuanian army? Of course it is! There are special task forces. They had even visited Afghanistan. Here, however, some history befallen. As a result the Lithuanian forces were withdrawn from this republic. It didn’t work out… In the Horus province of distant Afghanistan the captain and two lieutenants, as it was found out, were drunk at time of their drawing the duty that is absolutely forbidden by the regulations. Moreover, when one of the Lithuanian soldiers was killed, then, as it was reported by the press, his friends asked to go home, whereby they had violated the oath. As a result, the end had come to their military career.

In general, it is very difficult to resist the “bear” with nuclear missiles with such military potential. Who will lend a hand in this situation? Of course, the dearest allies. In December of the past year the famous web-site Wikilix disclosed some details that NATO had developed a new plan to defend the Baltic republics from aggressors. The plan received the name “Eagle – defender”. Its main task is that nine divisions of NATO, which are the Americans, German, British and Polish have to withstand the aggressor, which, naturally, may be located only in the East, However, officially, the availability of this plan isn’t confirmed.

And meantime, instead of thinking on how to develop the good-neighbor relations, the Lithuanian politics continue to frighten each other with Russia. The real hysterics were raised after it was known that Russia is buying four “Mistral” helicopter carriers. For the Lithuanian strategists the helicopter carrier appears as something powerful as the nuclear-power submarine. But we aren’t going to retell the suffering of the Lithuanian politics, let’s better give the floating to our surely unforgotten Vitautas Landsbergis.

Here is what he was used to say concerning the “Mistral”: “A while ago Lithuania was treated with French spaghetti, allegedly this ship or the ships will be sold without weaponry, in the capacity of the ferry for cows’ transportation to islands pastures…
For all intents and purposes those ships are designed to conduct the combat operations from sea to coast, whether they are going to transport French or Russian helicopters isn’t a top-priority moment. The top priorities ones are speed and offensive amphibious power, and hereto the means for intimidation, the method of psychological war…
Observing the conformism of the French authorities, the Russia for some time presses on France, so the one would sell it four aircraft carriers (It seems that Mr. Landsbergis in fear had confused helicopter carrier with aircraft carrier. That’s why we say that cowards die many times before their death…), which have the capacity to transport together with helicopters one-two squadrons of soldiers and about 40 tanks. Do we have at least so many anti-tank shells for equilibrium?
Having these ships the chances are that Russia is going to return to itself or once again be restored in both the Baltic and the Black seas… The plans, including the laying of the gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea and protection of it by the power of the Russian naval forces (which power was already tested in autumn maneuvers near our borders) are known to anybody. The “Mistral” may be deployed on a permanent basis. It is incomprehensible innocence, if one would think – aye, let it set out the mess in Georgia, maybe it won’t touch us. Undoubtedly it is also immoral. The great battles were born from it”.

In general, it’s only a dread. There is nowhere to go for Lithuanian from the Russian “Mistral”. However, the analytics remain in bewilderment. Well, first of all, why Russia should fight with NATO, the member of whom is the Lithuanian republic. Secondly, and there are not ships in the Baltic fleet without the “Mistral”, there are? Frankly speaking, there are even more powerful ones. And thirdly it’s misunderstood why do the negotiations take place as to the sea – it’s far simpler to conduct the land attack?! Let’s remember the same 1940 …

Everything is explained. It’s no coincidence that Mr. Landsbergis had recalled about Georgia. He is not alone. The Lithuanian politics with deepest affliction had stated that the military forces of Georgia, which were so praised, and according to the Lithuanian experts were far more battleworthy and advanced than the Lithuanian military forces, could do nothing, when the Russian army had got in. We all know how it was…

Raimondas Lopata, the director of the institute of both international relations and political science, was forced to state directly that Russia had won the war: “I consider that Russia is the victor, because it has also demonstrated to the world that it can act as it wants”. Political scientist Yanyalunas had also sadly stated that: “If we look wider, on a geopolitical, strategic level, it seems that Russia had received more benefits… The Russians were benefited, and they clearly shown who demonstrates truly power in this region. Russia, not the countries of the Western Europe, NATO, will deal with the problems here. To put it crudely, Russia has tanks, while the Americans and Europe have only pretty words”.

Only from this sole thought one starts to feel bad, and not only to the above stated Mr. Landsbergis. That’s why the new crazy ideas are born. Suddenly, one political scientist is starting to discuss the question in all seriousness, what to do if Russia deploys tanks, to make the provisions on a transit across the territory of Lithuania to Kaliningrad region. The other expert that had awoken in cold sweat evidently, and he is thinking about, what will happen if the Baltic fleet gets missiles with the nuclear warheads. Recently the really anecdotic case happened. The patriotic society was deeply scandalized after finding out, what job the former head commanding officer of the Lithuanian army Valdas Tutkuc did find. The general has the nerve to state that the private entity can work whereon the one wants and he found a job with Hoptrans Projects company, which is under the control of “KGB general, Vladimir Yakunin”.

In reality it has soon been found out that Hoptrans Projects for all intents and purposes is the agent of the Russian railroad society “Transcontainer” in Lithuania and it belongs to the “Russian railroads”.

The examples of such kind it is possible to find a lot, but should it be continue. Maybe the Lithuanian politicians should think about the fact that such behavior it is very difficult to consider as friendly. However if there is no friendship then is it any use developing economic relations, for example? That’s why the most long-sighted Lithuanian businessmen anxiously think about the situation, when Russia, for example, stops the cargo traffic to the Baltic ports, raises the prices of energy carriers or, for example, announce the boycott to some specific goods. The Lithuanian motor carriers have subject to think about, because two thirds companies, which constitute the Lithuanian national association of the motor carriers, do their transportation in Russia exactly. Thinking about the situation, which consequences might be caused by the economic sanctions if suddenly, Russia devises to implement them in regards to Lithuania, the director of the economic department of the Central bank of Lithuania Raimondas Kuodis has diplomatically noticed: “it would be sad”.

And he is right. It may be very sad, if the Lithuanian politicians act in the same vein, forgetting one simple truth. They, of course, may constitute themselves the Uncatchable Joe (in other words Jonas), but it is necessary forget that he is uncatchable for one simple reason – he is just a castaway…