The USA finance civil war till winter, and then leave Kiev “to die”

Washington understands that it is impossible to build the stable pro-American state in Ukraine therefore it relied on burning in fire of civil war with a view to retraction of Russia in this conflict — the questions of «The world and we» are answered by Rostislav Vladimirovich Ishchenko, the political scientist, the president of the Center of the system analysis and forecasting.
— How can you comment on Yatsenyuk’s resignation from a post of the prime minister — is this urgent escape in connection with close prospect of crash of the Kiev junta or a consequence of inter clan «dismantling»?
It is hardly the escape because Yatsenyuk could get away long ago if understood what occurs round him. Poroshenko from the moment of the arrival on presidency tried to hold early parliamentary elections. It was impossible because this idea was supported only by «Udar» fraction in the Verkhovna Rada. When Svoboda fraction joined it and they disorganized the coalition, it became clear that Poroshenko will dismiss Rada.
In these conditions Yatsenyuk’s resignation is quite logical and technological course because «Batkivshchyna» declines all responsibility for the government which three months will be headed by someone another. And all these three months there will be an election campaign during which «Batkivshchyna» will say that everything is bad because Yatsenyuk’s government left and the coalition was disorganized.
If Yatsenyuk remained a prime minister, possibilities of his government would be limited as it has no majority in Rada — it wouldn’t get support to the legislative initiatives. At the same time Poroshenko and his team could say that everything in the country is bad because «Batkivshchyna» and Yatsenyuk head the government. Therefore in this case this resignation is the element of parliamentary election campaign which is quite clear and logical.
— Can the transfer of terms of credit granting from the IMF lead to a situation when retaliatory operation won’t be financed and the forecast declared by Kiev that since August 1 the money won’t be for war any more will come true?
War is such action on the making of which there would be always money. Substantially it feeds itself. While cartridges and shells suffice, and the army already accustomed to get the food independently. If there are no payments to the military personnel — without it they, most likely, will suffer, and war won’t stop because of it. Besides, the government already suggested to impose 1,5% of tax to finance the war, and is going to receive from this tax at least 3 billion hryvnas. Therefore they will be able to find money on war.
— Can the third wave of mobilization which is declared under Poroshenko’s decree lead to large-scale social explosions?
Mass riots are improbable because while there is only deaf «fermentation», separate performances against sending people to the front. But it is isolated cases, and they don’t develop into any mass campaign yet. While these performances are directed not against the power, but against concrete decisions. Such performances can be ignored, suppressed and aren’t serious threat for the power. Potentially, after a while they can develop into it, but for this purpose it would be necessary, probably, not one month. Therefore it shouldn’t be hoped that these social performances will lead to immediate explosion.
On the other hand, it is more dangerous to the power that if in the first wave of mobilization they distributed the weapon to the ideologically motivated people— the neo-Nazi fighters, to volunteers who went to be at war with Russia, now they arm forcibly the people who don’t want to be at war. And here there is a big danger for Kiev that its own army will get out of control.
The armed people who don’t want to be at war simply can direct the weapon against those who forces them to do it. It is the matter of not one month, but danger of an exit of army from under control is now higher than danger of social explosion.
— There is an opinion that support from the USA to the Kiev mode consistently decreases to what the corresponding trends in the western mass media and in statements of politicians testify. Do you agree with this point of view?
After March the USA understood that it won’t be possible to create anti-Russian, focused on the USA, stable state in Ukraine. At best it is possible to create the territory of civil war. In order that civil war proceeded it is necessary to finance the Kiev government. This financing can manage in the sum about 100 billion dollars per year to cover all its necessary expenses. Own budgetary receipts actually ended for Kiev — it can’t live at the expense of own money. The USA can’t allocate such financing too especially as it is senseless. Therefore they relied simply on burning of Ukraine on fire of civil war, but with attempt to involve Russia in this conflict in addition to complicate the relations of Russia and EU.
Therefore the USA helps exactly so that Kiev was able to continue civil war more long as it is possible. But, I think, in Washington it is clear too that outside this winter the Kiev mode doesn’t exist. Supply of gas is absent within a month, negotiations on this question didn’t begin at all. It means that in the winter the gas won’t be in Ukraine, there will be nothing to heat. If already about 50% of the Kiev houses are disconnected from hot water, and it is in the capital, it is clear what will happen to the country in winter time. Plus by this time tariffs still will grow, salaries will fall, unemployment will increase.
In Washington it has to be clear that the winter is a critical situation when the mode if it doesn’t fail earlier, all the same will start breaking up. Therefore all American actions on support are focused on this period till fall, beginning of winter. Now there are «drop» injections of money and conditional political support of the Kiev mode when, for example, the USA all the same continue to declare that the plane was crashed by Russians. It is less active support, and another won’t be. Now the summer comes to an end, fall is not far off— Americans try to pull out gradually «tail» from this conflict and to leave Kiev farther «to die» independently.
The only thing that they still will try to make — provocation against the Crimea because it is the last serious provocation, capable to involve Russia in the conflict which is till today in their arsenal.
— Thus, retaliatory operation on Donets Basin is doomed to a failure under such circumstances?
2 weeks ago, before the last approach which as a matter of fact failed, Kiev declared the beginning of preparation of winter campaign — this subject was started discussing there. But it is possible to plan it only when there is an understanding that summer one wasn’t successful. Together with winter campaign fights on Donets Basin will already go nearly a year. If to say that in two areas mutiny began, historical practice and experience show that if the state isn’t capable to suppress mutiny within the first weeks or one-two months, this state is scattered.
Therefore each next week and month of opposition on Donets Basin during which the militia keeps rather serious territory and increases the power, promptly approach the crash of the Kiev mode. And today even the greatest optimists started doubting that Kiev is capable not to lose this conflict.